Justin VanLaere’s preview/prediction for the Iowa-Michigan game in Ann Arbor, MI.

Game Info

Iowa (8-13, 2-6) at Michigan (10-10, 3-5)
POMEROY RATINGS: Iowa – 144, Michigan – 62
RPI RATINGS:  Iowa – 174, Michigan – 122
Jan. 30, 2010 • 3:30 p.m. (CST)
Ann Arbor, MI • Crisler Arena
TV: BTN (HD) • Live Stats: hawkeyesports.com • Satellite Radio: XM 196
Local Radio: AM-600 WMT, AM-800 KXIC, AM-1040 WHO
Series Record: MICH leads 84-57 (Last Meeting, MICH, 73-45, March 12, 2009)

Probable Starting Lineups

Michigan
Pos. No. Name Ht. Wt. Yr. Statistical Summary
G 31 Laval Lucas-Perry 6-3 185 So.-RS 6.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 2.0 apg, .386 FG%, .621 FT%
G 1 Stu Douglass 6-3 185 So. 6.9 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 2.9 apg, .319 FG%, .810 FT%
G 3 Manny Harris 6-5 185 Jr. 19.0 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 4.3 apg, .444 FG%, .797 FT%
F 0 Zack Novak 6-5 210 So. 7.6 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.6 apg, .375 FG%, .708 FT%
C 34 DeShawn Sims 6-8 235 Sr. 17.5 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 1.3 spg, .511 FG%, .731 FT%

Iowa
Pos. No. Name Ht. Wt. Yr. Statistical Summary
G 3 Cully Payne 6-1 190 Fr. 8.2 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 3.8 apg, .363 FG%, .630 FT%
G 5 Matt Gatens 6-5 215 So. 12.4 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.4 apg, .374 FG%, .851 FT%
G 25 Eric May 6-5 225 Fr. 9.3 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 1.6 apg, .417 FG%, .667 FT%
F 24 Aaron Fuller 6-6 230 So. 7.8 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 0.7 apg, .470 FG%, .667 FT%
C 50 Jarryd Cole 6-7 250 Jr. 8.5 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 0.5 apg, .617 FG%, .625 FT%

VanLaere Notes

No VLOG for this game.
Live Chat for this game can be found HERE.

Both Beilein and Lickliter will be sporting polos, pants, and tennis shoes in their support of Coaches vs. Cancer.

I keep reading that Michigan is a team on the decline after dropping three straight, but some people fail to realize just who the Wolverines were up against.  On the road against Wisconsin and Purdue and then back home against Michigan State.  They played decent on the road, but let’s be honest, it’s nearly impossible to win at the Kohl Center and Mackey Arena.  Michigan nearly pulled the upset at home vs. the Spartans, as well.  I just don’t buy that the Wolverines are slumping right now.  They have one of the best SOS in the entire nation, and although they are sitting 10-10 overall, they are a better team than their record indicates.  The real issue that plagues this Michigan team is no one can predict which team is going to show up – the team that beat UCONN or the team that lost to Indiana.

Eric May is quickly becoming one of my favorite Hawkeyes.  When he verballed to Iowa, I thought that he might be able to contribute to the team as a role player, using his athleticism to make up for his raw game.  I truly did not expect to see what we are seeing out of him at this stage of his career.  While he is still raw in several areas of the game, he’s learning the system well and giving this Iowa team a huge shot in the arm.  He’s made some blocks this year that I haven’t seen from a Hawkeye player in decades (that Buford one last time out was simply outstanding from a sense of “getting up”, but also in body control, as well).  He has a great chance to make the All-Freshman team in the Big Ten this year.  Props to Lickliter for spotting his upside and getting him to campus.  Eric will be tested in this game, as I fully expect him to have the responsibility of stopping Manny Harris.

Iowa proved it can win on the road when they went into Assembly Hall last week and dominated the game start to finish against the Hoosiers.  That monkey is now off their back, they know they can get wins on the road.  Crisler Arena won’t nearly be as imposing as Bloomington’s or East Lansing’s environments – two places where Iowa played very well.

The Wolverines will undoubtedly bring their tough, aggressive man to man defense into this game.  The last time Iowa has faced a pressure defense like this was against Minnesota, we remember how that turned out on Iowa’s home floor.

PLAYERS TO WATCH FOR:

Harris. During his tenure in Ann Arbor, Manny has had some difficulty staying on the court (mainly because of run-ins with Coach Beilein).  However, when he’s in the game and on his game, he’s one of the best in the Big Ten.  In my opinion, he was a guy that could have got drafted last year, but decided to come back and raise his stock a little bit.  I don’t expect him back next year wearing the Maize and Blue, so he’s going to do everything he can to get the Wolverines back into the hunt for a postseason bid.  I’d bet the house that Eric May is going to be on Manny, look for Eric to attempt to contain him as he did with Turner for most of Iowa’s last game.

Sims.  Need to be reminded of what Sims can do?  Go back and watch the opening round of last year’s Big Ten Tournament.  Yeah, he scares the living crap out of me too.  At 6’8″, he’s one of the more versatile players in the Big Ten.

That 3rd Guy.  Whether its Douglass, Nowak, Morris, or Lucas-Perry, look for Michigan to finally get a third guy to help the Wolverines out, as Iowa does their best to keep up with the previously mentioned dynamic duo.

KEYS TO THE GAME:

• Offensive Rebounds.  Iowa has won some games the past few weeks because they have hit the offensive boards very well.  Michigan is a team that is susceptible to allowing second-change points.  They don’t box out that well on the D end, and that could create some lanes for Iowa to grab offensive boards.
• Limit turnovers.  Michigan’s D forces a ton of turnovers, and with the slow pace expected in this one, Iowa cannot afford empty possessions on the road.  Additionally, UM isn’t going to turn the ball over, so that will limit Iowa’s possessions even more.
• Stay out of foul trouble / Get them in foul trouble.  Foul trouble hurt Iowa for the first time this year last time out and helped contribute to the loss.  Sims has fouled out of a couple ballgames already this year, and Michigan hasn’t won a game when Sims has 4 or more fouls.  Fuller and Cole need to go at Sims even with the good probability of getting the rock shoved down their throats.

PREDICTION: I’ll be quite honest, I can see Iowa winning this game by 10 points and I can see them losing the game by 25+ points.  The game will hinge on which Michigan Wolverine team shows up, as well as how effective Matt Gatens can be with his bad ankle.     Iowa 53 ,  Michigan 59

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