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Iowa MBB vs. Michigan Preview/Prediction

February 16, 2010

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Hawkeye Nation

Justin VanLaere’s preview/prediction for the Iowa-Michigan game in Iowa City, IA.

Game Info

Michigan (12-12, 5-7) at Iowa (9-17, 3-10)
POMEROY RATINGS: Iowa – 143, Michigan – 66
RPI RATINGS:  Iowa – 179, Michigan – 125
Feb. 16, 2010 • 8:06 p.m. (CST)
Iowa City, IA • Carver-Hawkeye Arena
TV: BTN (HD) • Live Stats: hawkeyesports.com • Satellite Radio: XM 196
Series Record: MICH leads 85-57 (Last Meeting, MICH, 60-46, Jan. 30, 2010)

Probable Starting Lineups

Michigan
Pos. No. Name Ht. Wt. Yr. Statistical Summary
G 4 Darius Morris 6-4 180 Fr. 4.4 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 2.6 apg, .424 FG%, .647 FT%
G 1 Stu Douglass 6-3 185 So. 6.5 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 2.8 apg, .315 FG%, .773 FT%
G 3 Manny Harris 6-5 185 Jr. 18.4 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 4.2 apg, .427 FG%, .797 FT%
F 0 Zack Novak 6-5 210 So. 7.1 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 1.5 apg, .368 FG%, .677 FT%
C 34 DeShawn Sims 6-8 235 Sr. 17.5 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 1.1 spg, .512 FG%, .675 FT%

Iowa
Pos. No. Name Ht. Wt. Yr. Statistical Summary
G 3 Cully Payne 6-1 190 Fr. 8.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 3.8 apg, .371 FG%, .576 FT%
G 5 Matt Gatens 6-5 215 So. 11.8 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 3.3 apg, .358 FG%, .848 FT%
F 25 Eric May 6-5 225 Fr. 9.2 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 1.1 spg, .406 FG%, .655 FT%
F 24 Aaron Fuller 6-6 230 So. 8.2 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 0.8 apg, .427 FG%, .699 FT%
C 50 Jarryd Cole 6-7 250 Jr. 8.4 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 0.5 spg, .591 FG%, .651 FT%

VanLaere Notes

No VLOG for this game.
Live Chat for this game can be found HERE.

This is a BLACKOUT game.  Fans are encouraged to wear black to Carver-Hawkeye Arena.

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Iowa is coming off back-to-back clobberings at the hands of the Wolverines in their last two contests.  The last time these two teams faced off in Carver-Hawkeye Arena, however, Iowa beat Michigan in a thrilling overtime game (albeit with UM’s Manny Harris on the bench for an extended period of time).  Todd Lickliter’s Hawkeyes have not fared well versus John Beilein’s Wolverines, in fact Beilein pretty much owns Lickliter.  Coming into the game in CHA, Coach Lickliter holds a 2-5 record vs. Coach Beilein in Big Ten play.

Looking back at their previous match-up in Ann Arbor, there weren’t many positives to take away for the Hawks.  Aaron Fuller was the only Iowa player to post double-digits in the scoring column.  If you recall, it took Iowa over 7 minutes before they put any points up on the board.  By that time, Michigan had a 13 point lead and never looked back.  Iowa got off 24 treys but only made 4 of them.

Iowa has lost 6 of their last 8, while Michigan has lost 5 of their last 7.  Before beating Minnesota last week, UM had only 1 road win this year (over PSU).

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PLAYERS TO WATCH FOR:

Sims.  I can’t recall a player in recent memory who has taken it to Iowa on a consistent basis like DeShawn Sims has done to Iowa.  In the past three seasons, Sims averages almost 17 points per game vs. Iowa and has hit at least 20 points in their last two contests.  There is no one on the current roster for the Hawkeyes who can match-up with him.

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Harris. Manny continues to show that he is a bit erratic on the court, but someone who gets it done nonetheless.  He has the skills for the next level, but I question his BB IQ at times.  He does a tremendous job of breaking down his defender, wherein he can finish at the rim, find the open man, or pull up for the jay.  His step back jumper is very deadly, as well.

KEYS TO THE GAME:

  • Don’t Let Sims Get Off.  The reason Sims has been able to do well against Iowa is because he has started out so well vs. them.  He gets on a roll, builds up his confidence, and takes off from there.  Iowa needs to focus on Sims early, even if it allows other UM’s players to score.  Iowa HAS to beat Sims to his spots.  The coaching staff and players should know where these spots are by now.
  • Mix it up on D.  I’m sure Hawkeye Basketball fans who regularly watch Iowa games will roll their eyes at this key.  I would too.  However, it’s going to be a tough go against Sims down low, so why not throw in a 2-3 or a 2-1-2 zone on the Wolverines.  Pack it in and force Michigan to beat you from the outside.  They hit shots vs. Minnesota last time out, but it’s risk Iowa has to take.  UM shoots under 30% from 3 pt range as a team, one of the worst percentages in the nation.
  • Offensive Boards, Go Get ‘Em.  Fuller, May, and Cole need to be all of the O boards in this game.  The tempo is going to be low, so possessions will be extremely valuable.

PREDICTION: I think Iowa will do enough against Harris and Sim to keep it close at home, but not well enough to pull out the win.  Iowa just struggles against Michigan.  The Hawkeyes have a good chance of pulling out the win, but my thoughts are we will see the Wolverines leave CHA with the win.    Iowa 64 ,  Michigan 67

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