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MBB: Iowa vs. Ohio State Preview/Prediction

January 7, 2012

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Hawkeye Nation

By Justin VanLaere

The Iowa Hawkeyes (winners of five out their last six games) host one of the best team in the nation this afternoon inside Carver-Hawkeye Arena.  The #6 ranked Ohio State Buckeyes will face a confident Iowa team in front of one of the better crowds in recent memory.  This is the 150th time these two teams have played each other.  Iowa has lost six straight games to Ohio State.  The Buckeyes have an impressive streak of 56 consecutive wins over unranked teams.  The last time these two teams played, Iowa lead by 6 at half but couldn’t hold on, losing by 5.

Game Info

Iowa Hawkeyes (10-6; 2-1) vs Ohio State (14-2; 2-1)
POMEROY RATINGS: Iowa – 95, Ohio State – 1
REALTIMERPI: Iowa – 102, Ohio State– 4
CBS RPI: Iowa – 149, Ohio State- 11
MASSEY RANKING: Iowa – 109, Ohio State- 5
Tip Off: Saturday, January 7th, 2012; 2:06 PM CST
Iowa City, IA; Carver-Hawkeye Arena, 15,500
TV: BTN HD; BTN2GO.com
Radio: AM 600, 1040, and 800.
Iowa leads 75-74 in the all-time series.

LINE: Iowa is an 11.5 point underdog at home. Pomeroy predicts a 15 point Iowa loss.

NO LIVE CHAT – visit the Iowa – Ohio State Game Thread instead.  Also, follow Jon Miller (@Hawkeyenation) and myself (@storminspank) on Twitter during the game.

Projected Starters


IOWA

G – Devyn Marble, 6’6”, 194 lb, SO

G – Matt Gatens, 6’5”, 212 lb, SR

G – Eric May, 6’5”, 217 lb, JR

F – Melsahn Basabe, 6’7”, 225 lb, SO

F – Zach McCabe, 6’7”, 232 lb, SO

 

OHIO STATE

G – Aaron Craft, 6’2″, 190, SO

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G – Lenzelle Smith, Jr, 6’4″, 205, SO

G – William Buford, 6’6″, 220, SR

F – Deshaun Thomas, 6’7″, 225, SO

F – Jared Sullinger, 6’9″, 265, SO

 

STATS COMPARISON:

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  • Points Per Game – Iowa 76.7, OSU 78.1
  • FG % – Iowa 45.8, OSU 49.5
  • Points per Poss: – Iowa, 1.09, OSU 1.14
  • eFG% – Iowa 49.9, OSU 53.6
  • Opp eFG% – Iowa 50.1, OSU 44.7
  • 3 pt% – Iowa 34.3, OSU 32.2
  • Opp 2 pt %: Iowa 50.2, OSU 44.1
  • Opp 3 pt% – Iowa 33.3, OSU 30.7
  • FT% – Iowa 73.6, OSU 68.4
  • Offensive Turnover% – Iowa 16.6 (#12 in nation), OSU 16.9
  • Defensive Turnover% – Iowa 21.6, OSU 26.7 (#7 in nation)
  • Offensive Reb% – Iowa 33.2, OSU 22.2 (#1 in nation)
  • Offensive Steal% – Iowa 6.3 (#2 in nation), OSU 6.4 (#3 in the nation)
  • Offensive Block% – Iowa 6.3, OSU 5.3 (#2 in the nation)

Here’s a look at a graphical comparison of the teams from statsheet.com, the two teams are basically mirror images of each other in regards to stats…

 

IOWA’S BIG TEN TEAM STAT RANKINGS (through ALL games):

  • Scoring – 3rd
  • Scoring D – 12th
  • Scoring Margin – 9th
  • FT% – 2nd
  • FG% – 6th
  • Opp FG% – 12th
  • 3 pt% – 6th
  • 3 pt Made – 10th
  • Opp 3 pt% – 5th
  • Reb Margin – 9th
  • Assists – 5th
  • Steals – 3rd
  • TO Margin – 5th
  • A/TO Ratio – 5th
  • OREB% – 8th
  • DREB% – 7th

 

IOWA’S BIG TEN INDIVIDUAL STAT RANKINGS (through ALL games):

  • Points – Gatens 16th, Marble 23rd
  • Rebs – Basabe 9th
  • FG% – Basabe 15th
  • Assists -Cartwright 5th, Marble 9th
  • FT% – Gatens 4th, Cartwright 5th,
  • Steals – Marble 7th, Gatens 10th
  • 3pt% – Oglesby 15th
  • Blocks – Basabe 14th
  • A/TO Ratio – Marble 2nd, Cartwright 5th
  • OREB – McCabe 7th, White 11th
  • DREB – Basabe 9th

 

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KEYS TO GAME FOR IOWA:

Continue the Terrific Perimeter D.  Whether it’s the increased communication, better rotation, or just pure luck – Iowa’s opponents have been shooting awful from behind the arc lately. Wisconsin shot 3-28 and Minnesota shot 4-23 from 3 point land.  Couple that with the fact that last time out Ohio State shot an ugly 2-17 from the outside, it’s possible that trend continues.  If it does, Iowa will be great position in this game.

–  Basabe vs. Sullinger.  The last time these two faced off, it was a real treat.  Mel and Sully went toe to toe, point for point, rebound for rebound.  Sullinger is one of the best players in the nation, if Basabe can duplicate his efforts from last year, it will take the pressure of Marble and Gatens to have to do too much.  Sullinger was in foul trouble in the loss to Indiana on the road, something like that can’t hurt Iowa if it happens today.

Limit Mistakes and Execute.  No this isn’t a line from Kirk Ferentz, not verbatim at least.  There’s a reason Ohio State is ranked in the Top 10 and is a favorite to win the B1G.  They’re good – really good.  Iowa needs to be focused and needs to play mistake-free basketball, very similar to how they played on the road vs. Wisconsin.  They will need an effort like that to have a chance in the ballgame.  Empty Iowa possessions and allowing Ohio State 2nd chance points will severely handicap the Hawkeyes’ chances.

Slash. Penetrate. Dish/Score.   If you watched the Ohio State – Indiana game, you saw the Hoosiers expose Ohio State’s defense.  Indiana was able to get into the lane, get the shots they wanted, get bunnies, etc…  That puts some focus toward Devyn Marble and Bryce Cartwright this afternoon – those two need to get into the lane and make OSU’s bigs make quick decisions on their defensive rotation.

PREDICTION:  It’s tough to bet against the Hawkeyes right now.  They are playing pretty good basketball on both ends of the court, and if they can put together 40 minutes of solid basketball, the wins are going to continue to come.   The last time Iowa played the #1 Pomeroy-rated team in the nation, they won on the road.  Can they accomplish the same feat at home today? I think they come up short to an incredibly talented Buckeye team.  Hawks beat the spread, but not Ohio State.  FINAL SCORE: Iowa 69,  Ohio State 77

 


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