With the decisions made by Shaun Prater, Marvin McNutt and Tyler Sash, we now have a better idea of what the 2011 Iowa starting lineup may look like.  Here’s my mid-January stab without factoring in any offseason injuries or attrition.

Quarterback:  James Vandenberg is the front runner.  I don’t want to say ‘it’s his job to lose’ because I don’t know how far John Wienke has come this year, but I believe he has made exponential strides.  Will that be enough to win the quarterback battle? I don’t know.  I’d say Vandenberg is an 85-15 favorite here.  He showed a solid skill set in late 2009, and perhaps a higher skill set ceiling than Rick Stanzi.  However, leadership and reading zone coverages will be a big factor in 2011.  A.J. Derby will have his second spring in the program in a few months, and that’s going to likely be a pivotal time for him.  I still think he winds up at another position, but he’ll only be a redshirt freshman next season.  Incoming frosh Jake Rudock could be a factor for him, too.

Running Back:  I wrote a more detailed piece on this last week, and you can read that here.  In this instance, it’s Coker’s job to lose and I have no problem saying that.  He is only going to get better.

Fullback: Brad Rogers showed what he could do at Michigan this year when Bret Morse was injured.  He is a threat to run the ball (much more than Morse was) and he blocked well, too.

Tight End: Brad Herman really blossomed this year, and CJ Fiedorowicz looks the part and learned a lot about blocking this year.  A spring in the program and this out of season time will do him well, and Iowa is going to have a very good 1-2 punch next year.

Wide Receiver:  Marvin McNutt could wind up being the most important ‘recruit’ in this year’s ‘class’, much in the way Shonn Greene was when he got eligible to play in 2009.  I think McNutt can improve exponentially this offseason; he has that potential and also that room to grow.  Keenan Davis will have to step up and become the player we all believe he can be.  This offseason is critical for him, too.  As for the third receiver, Don Shumpert and Jordan Cotton come to mind.  Perhaps a freshman could get into the mix for time on the one line.

Offensive Line: James Ferentz had a great year.  I agree with Patrick Webb in saying he has a shot to be the best center of the Kirk Ferentz era, a list that includes Bruce Nelson, Bryan Ferentz, Rob Bruggeman (who I really liked) and Rafael Eubanks who had a very good senior season.  I think James 2010 season was just as good as Eubanks 2009 season.  He’ll only get better.  Riley Reiff and Markus Zusevics are your tackles, with Nolan MacMillan and Adam Gettis your guards and some quality depth behind these five.  This is going to be a strength for the 2011 team; perhaps THE strength.  I think they have a shot at being one of the best lines in the league.

In general, Iowa’s starting offensive lineup has a chance to be statistically superior to what the 2010 offense was on the average.  In fact, I think it will be.  Through eight games, the 2010 offense was on pace to be one of the three or four most productive offenses in school history, then injuries caught up to them.  The 2011 offense could average 30 or more points per game and let’s hope they can consistently move the chains for an entire season, something that didn’t happen this year; Iowa went from 51% third down conversions through eight games to just 34% the last four games.  That still averaged out to more than 46.2%, a top 25 number nationally, but you can’t have that drastic dropoff.  In the case of this year’s offense, the average doesn’t tell the story.

Now for the defense…

Defensive Line: Mike Daniels and Broderick Binns are two returning starters.  Yes, a lot of publications will say Iowa lost three starters, and they did.  But Binns knows the drill and Daniels excelled this year.  Plug Lebron Daniel in at the end position opposite Binns or perhaps even Dominic Alvis, and either Thomas Nardo or Steve Bigach at tackle.  This group will not be as stout as the 2010 group was (they were 6th in the nation against the rush folks), but I don’t expect to see a drop off like we saw from a total defense perspective the way we did in 2005 when Iowa was starting two sophomore defensive ends (Bryan Mattison and Ken Iwebema) and two freshmen defensive tackles (Mitch King and Matt Kroul).

Linebacker: James Morris and Tyler Nielsen are going to be very good performers in 2011.  Nielsen was having an exceptional year before he was injured against Michigan State and was Iowa’s best linebacker in pass coverage.  Morris was pressed into action and received an on the job education.  That experience is going to accelerate his development.  The third linebacker will be the question, with Christian Kirksey getting a look as well as some younger players.  Shane Dibona was listed as Morris’ backup on the end of season depth chart, and Kirksey was Hunter’s backup.  If Iowa can stay healthy at this position, their OVERALL play at linebacker should average out to be better in 2011 than it was during the injury riddled 2010 campaign.

Cornerback: Prater was another huge ‘recruit’ for Iowa.  He should blossom into one of the better corners of the Ferentz era.  I think Micah Hyde has a lot of upside left in his tank and I was not as down on his 2010 play as some fans were.  He plays a position where it’s easy to spot the mistakes, but sometimes more challenging for some folks to notice the excellence.  Iowa will have one of the best corner tandems in the Big Ten.

Safeties: Two brand new faces replace two excellent performers.  Tanner Miller and Tom Donatell are the names to know here.  Miller played in key spots against Missouri in the Insight Bowl as Bret Greenwood was injured in the second half.  Does Jordan Bernstine surface here?  It’s his last chance to break in.  He has the talent to do it.  There will be a drop off at these important positions.  The big question will be how much?

On the whole, Iowa doesn’t get ‘fancy’ and their base scheme does not change foundationally from year to year.  This allows new faces to come in and execute the team defense philosophy quicker than if you were making changes from year to year.  It’s how a Karl Klug can replace a Mitch King, or how Iowa has had a litany of excellent safeties during the Ferentz era; the kids know what to do when it’s their turn because they have been doing the same things their entire time at Iowa.

We know the 2010 defense couldn’t get off the field in crucial times, but they were still in the Top 25 in total defense, 6th in rushing defense, 7th in scoring defense and 24th in passing efficiency defense.  I’d take those numbers again for next year in a heartbeat.  However, I suspect the scoring defense and rushing defense numbers will decline.  Will this be an opportunistic defense?  Iowa was just 45th in the nation in turnovers gained this past season, well below what I expected from this group.  That sort of ‘characteristic’ is impossible to predict from season to season.

Iowa should have a solid placekicking game with Mike Meyer returning, but Eric Guthrie and Jonny Mullings will have a tough time coming close to replacing Ryan Donahue.

On the whole, I think Iowa has a chance to have a very good offense and a defense that shouldn’t fall beyond ‘middle of the pack’ in the Big Ten.  The defense will return six ‘starters’ while the offense will return five offensive linemen with multiple games started under their belts, two receivers with experience and talented tight ends.  All three projected starters in the backfield have previous starts, too.  In fact, 10 of 11 projected starters will have had starting experience for Iowa, with Brad Herman being the exception and he played a lot for Iowa this year.

Most national pundits will overlook those facts, which means this offense is going to sneak up on a lot of people next year.  The defense will be the key, along with consistency in the punting game.  Iowa sure could use Ryan Donahue for one more year, especially in a season where the defense might need the help of field position more than they normally would. -Jon Miller

Click on the following links to read Patrick Webb’s extensive look at the 2011 roster:  OFFENSE DEFENSE

Tags: hawkeye football, Iowa football