KEY LOSSES
OFFENSE: WR Marquis Hamilton, C Reggie Stephens, TE Derrick Catlett,
DEFENSE: DE Christopher Lyle, DT Nate Frere, LB Jesse Smith, LB Fred Garrin, CB Kennard Banks, S James Smith
Special Teams:  P Mike Brandtner
Jon’s Point Spread Prediction (the number he thinks Vegas will use):  Iowa -10.5
Before Cyclones play Iowa:  ISU hosts Northern Illinois on September 2nd.  Once again, Iowa State will have two extra days to prepare for their game against Iowa, as they will open the season on a Thursday night.

It feels like the right time to take an early look at next season’s Iowa football schedule, team by team.  I mean, it’s less than nine months until kickoff, right?  We will examine the FBS teams that Iowa will play in 2010, which means we will skip over Eastern Illinois which is Iowa’s season opener on September 4th.

Let’s begin with the Iowa State Cyclones

Iowa State finished the regular season 6-6, with their biggest win being a 9-7 triumph over Nebraska in Lincoln, a Cornhuskers team that finished the year with a 10-4 record.

Yes, Iowa State was +8 in the turnover department in just this game alone, and at least four of those Nebraska turnovers occurred in the redzone.  But Iowa State had the ball for 33:40 in that contest and their defense allowed a respectable 362 yards and limited Nebraska to 15 first downs.  Iowa State had just 11 first downs and 239 yards.

However, the Cyclones took advantage of the situation and got a huge win.  Iowa State also beat Baylor and Colorado to round out their three conference wins.  They lost games to Kansas State and Kansas where they easily could have come out with a ‘W’, and they beat Minnesota 14-13 in the Insight Bowl, in case you missed it.  Given that just 600,000 or so people tuned in for that game, you might have missed it

If you would have told me before the year began that Iowa State’s offense was going to average just 20.54 points per game this year, I would have suggested they would have won just one or two games.  Why?  Their defense gave up a ton of points one year ago and rarely stopped any team.

The 2009 Cyclone defense was a ‘bend don’t break’ collection of players where the sum of the parts was truly greater than the whole.  They played at a level I didn’t expect to see, and there is plenty of credit to go around.  The first name that comes to mind is middle linebacker Jesse Smith, a former walk on from Southeast Polk High School.  He was 13th in the nation in tackles, with more than 10 per game.  The bad news for Iowa State is that Smith has expired his eligibility.

Defensive end Christopher Lyle led the Cyclones in tackles for loss, but he is also gone.  Their best interior lineman, Nate Frere, was a senior, too, as was Smith’s mate at linebacker Fred Garrin.  Senior cornerback Kennard Banks was suspended for the bowl game, but he started most of the year for ISU at one cornerback.  Finally, James Smith, a solid safety, graduates as well.

To say that Iowa State has lost the heart and soul of its defense would be debatable, and it’s a debate that you might win.  Jesse Smith meant so much to this year’s team on and off the field, and while Iowa State might be able to replace him with a better athlete, they will not be able to replace his heart, desire and determination, something Iowa fans may be facing with the loss of Pat Angerer.  Smith likely meant more to Iowa State’s defense than Angerer meant to Iowa’s defense.

It’s hard for me to imagine the 2010 ISU defense holding teams to under 22 points per game the way they did this year.

Even then, ISU total defense ranking was 99th in the nation, and they allowed 415 yards per game on average, including 165.69 per game on the ground.  They were just very opportunistic and I think the loss of senior leadership is going to hurt them in 2010.

As much as they lose on defense, they keep on offense.  Their lone loss along the offensive line is starting center Reggie Stephens.  Tight end Derrick Catlett graduates, but Colin Franklin is more effective in the passing game for Iowa State.  Running back Alexander Robinson returns after going for more nearly 1,200 yards last year despite playing much of the year with a groin injury; he had just four carries against Kansas State (47 yards) before leaving with the injury, and he did not play at all against Nebraska.

Another player that was not in the game against the Cornhuskers was quarterback Austin Arnaud.  He threw for 2015 yards, 14 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.  He also rushed for 561 yards.  I haven’t come across too many student athletes that are as respectful as Arnaud, and he walks the talk off the field.  He is an easy person to root for, which is why it’s tough to criticize him.

The reality is that Arnaud didn’t play as well in 2009 as many people, including me, expected.  To be fair, it was the third offense Arnaud has had to learn in his four seasons in an Iowa State uniform.  Yet Arnaud has seemed to lack poise in big spots, allowing his emotions to bubble to the surface where a cooler head would be preferred.

If you watched Iowa’s 35-3 win against ISU, you will remember what I am talking about.  Not surprising, Arnaud threw four interceptions that day.  He was fiery in their bowl game against Minnesota, and he threw two picks and lost two fumbles, yet he accounted for 315 total yards.

The good news for Arnaud is that this spring & summer will be less about learning the offense and more about refining his game within it.  Backup Jerome Tiller feels like he has a shot at the job, so Arnaud will be pushed by the challenger.

Iowa State has a lot of talent at wide receiver, and much of it was not healthy in 2009.  Darius Darks & Sedrick Johnson dealt with nagging injuries much of the year, and ‘Money’ Reynolds, a junior college transfer, was injured early and missed most of the year.  West Des Moines Valley product Jake Williams emerged out of nowhere to catch 36 passes for over 400 yards and five touchdowns, but senior Marquis Hamilton led Iowa State with 50 catches for 606 yards.

The play at the receiver position was inconsistent not just in the injury department, but when Arnaud was on target, he had to deal with more than an expected amount of dropped passes.

With eight returning starters, including just one starter lost along the offensive line and the players being in their second year of an offense that produced a ton of yards and points while its architect was at Rice two years ago, the Cyclones ability to put points on the board in 2010 should not be underestimated just because of their pedestrian production on the field in 2009.

FUN STAT:  Iowa State has not scored a touchdown against Iowa since the teams met in Kinnick Stadium in 2006.

Iowa State 2009 Results

Tags: 2010 Preview, hawkeye football, Hawkeye Nation, hawkeyenation.com, Iowa football