Thursday, February 9, 2012

Updated on Thursday, April 1st, 2010 at 12:01 am in Football.

Football Must Seize Momentum

Football Must Seize Momentum

The Iowa Hawkeyes are one week into spring practice and this is going to be a team that finds its way into several preseason Top 10 polls and should be a consensus Top 20 team…and for the last week, all of the focus has been on the Iowa men’s basketball coaching search.

So much for the notion that Iowa fans are apathetic and this is totally a football school…the passion is still there, as evidenced by an unprecedented March for HawkeyeNation.com in terms of traffic to the site, and I am not just talking about since the relaunch back in October; this March was the most visited March of any Hawkeye site I have been a part of, and I have been a part of nearly all of the largest sites there have ever been.  It was a lot of fun, and we certainly appreciate everyone stopping by each day, those of you that have made our message boards your home base and those new visitors that we saw this month.

With Fran McCaffery in the fold on the basketball side, the buzz about that situation will die down a bit over the next week or two and the focus will be back on Kirk Ferentz’s football team and the highly anticipated 2010 regular season.

It’s easy to say that the latest is the greatest, so I don’t want to get too far out ahead of my ski tips here, but I am guessing few seasons in the last 30 or so years will rival the buildup for this season.

There was a lot of hype in the spring and summer of 2005, and there was more hype in the months leading up to the 1985 season.  The ’05 Hawks didn’t deliver on that hype while the ’85 Hawks turned in one of the greatest seasons in Iowa football history.

It’s so important for Iowa to deliver when the eyeballs are on it, because they don’t have decades of tradition like that.  In fact, the last decade saw the prognosticators missing the Iowa bandwagon at nearly every turn.

Very few people outside the walls of Kinnick Stadium saw the 2002 season coming, and I doubt even the Iowa coaches felt they would navigate the regular season at 11-1.  When the preseason magazine consensus average came out (visit www.stassen.com to see those), the Hawkeyes were no where to be found.

Yes, they were coming off a 7-5 2001 season where their losses came by an average of less than six points and they beat Texas Tech 19-16 in the Alamo Bowl, but the experts didn’t see the train coming down the tracks; neither did I.  Iowa finished the year ranked #8 in the nation in the Associated Press poll.

That carried over into the 2003 season; Iowa was unranked in the preseason polls and wound up finishing the year ranked #8 in the nation…the experts had been fooled two years in a row.

At the start of 2004, The Hawks had a preseason magazine average ranking of 19th.  They would start a new face at quarterback for the third year in a row, but the pollsters began to believe in Ferentz’s little engine that could and they were rewarded for that faith, really one of two times that has happened during the Ferentz era.  Iowa would start out 2-2 but won their final eight games to tie for a Big Ten title and finish at 10-2, again ranked #8 in the nation.

It was the offseason of 2005 where the pundits really started to jump on Iowa’s bandwagon, even though Iowa had to replace its entire starting front four.  They had Abdul Hodge and Chad Greenway returning at linebacker and a proven returning starter at quarterback, something Iowa had not had since Matt Sherman in 1997.

Iowa was ranked #12 in the preseason magazine average, with the Los Angeles Times and a few other papers picking Iowa to play for the national championship that year against USC.

However, the Hawkeyes took a Top 10 ranking into Ames in September of 2005 and limped out of Jack Trice with a 23-3 defeat.  Iowa would lose a heartbreaker at Northwestern, surrendering a double digit fourth quarter lead and their Kinnick Stadium winning streak would get snapped in an overtime loss against Michigan.  The Hawks wound up finishing 7-5 that year, a season that could have resulted in nine wins.

At a program like Iowa’s, that is a momentum killer in the minds of the nation’s football writers.  They had been fooled about Iowa in two of the previous three years; twice being underrated…so when they went and heaped a boatload of preseason praise on the Hawks in 2005, they were fooled to the downside, and that leaves some mental scarring.

The 2006 Iowa team, the most disappointing of Ferentz’s Iowa years (he’ll tell you that), did not see Iowa rated in the preseason magazines or polls at all.  The same for 2007 and 2008.  The 2006 & 2007 teams performed as the national writers expected…again, when that happens, a program like Iowa’s gets buried pretty quickly in the minds of the football Illuminati.  Out of sight, out of mind.

The 2008 team didn’t begin the year in the rankings, but it ended the season ranked in the Top 25 with a record of 9-4, all four losses coming by a combined 12 points.

That set up last year’s preseason average ranking of 19th from the magazines and polls.  When I think back on that, Iowa probably got a little more respect than it did during Ferentz’s first go around with success; the Hawks had to prove it to the nation two years in a row that time around.

This brings us to the 2010 off season.  As I said to start this piece, the Hawks are going to be in everyone’s preseason Top 20 poll and they will make some Top Ten’s.  Some folks will overlook Iowa’s lack of experience on the offensive line and say that Kirk Ferentz is a master at developing offensive linemen; he has proven to be just that, but I am not yet ready to say ‘All is well’ along the line.

They’ll point to returning starter Rick Stanzi and that Iowa is 14-0 in their last 14 games where he has started and finished.  They’ll point to depth at running back and receiver, and one of the four best returning defensive lines in the nation, including preseason All American Adrian Clayborn.

They’ll probably overlook the losses at linebacker and talk about how Iowa returns three of four in the secondary. We know that depth at cornerback is as good right now as it has ever been during the Ferentz era.

They talk about how Iowa returns both of its kicking specialists, including punter Ryan Donahue, whom Mel Kiper ranks as the #1 punter in the senior to be class.

So the Hawks are going to get a lot of love, as the kids like to say.

Given that 2011 might be a bit of a rebuilding project on the defensive front seven, quarterback and at receiver, it’s so important for the future of the program to strike while the iron is hot, and for this year to not be anything like the 2005 season.

Momentum is so important, and while we are darn proud of the traditions of Hayden Fry and Kirk Ferentz, and while Iowa is one of the Top 25 football programs in the nation, the nation probably doesn’t see it exactly that way.

We’re fly over country, after all (sarcasm alert).

We have seen how quickly the nation can forget about is, which is why it’s so important to do well when they think we should do well.  This year’s team has less significant cracks in it than the 2005 team did…I think the Hawks can have a great year this year, or even a very good year.  Do that, and it can pay dividends in the minds of the pollsters for years to come.

That’s how a program starts to get the benefit of the doubt; make the national pundits look smart, and they’ll remember you fondly the next time around.  Make them look foolish, and they’ll forget you if you’re Iowa.

Here’s to an injury free spring and summer and the players staying focused, accepting the accolades that are going to come their way and choosing to outwork the nation, not just the guy next to them in practice.

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  • Aront

    Awesome write up Jon. I’m stilled scarred from 2005, and I hadn’t even come close to achieving the die-hard fan status I consider myself now. (I was merely 15 at the time) However, you’re exactly right, if they don’t perform up to expectations this time around this may be the “last straw” so to speak. They may not get a chance at earning the benefit of the doubt for a couple decades if not now. I am still staying uncharacteristically optimistic though, I just hope they fill those voids like I know they can.

  • http://www.hawkeyenation.com jonmiller

    I wouldnt say last straw, but it just takes so much success for an Iowa to get into the national spotlight before a season starts…if they can deliver this year, we all understand that next year won’t be as good and they’ll get a pass on that one.

  • MelroseHawkins

    Yes. The Iowa team definately has a target on their collective backs at the START of the season as opposed to 3/4 in the season. They will get everyone’s best game each week & are now marked on opposing teams schedules. It will all start going down to Arizona because they will want to prove they are a worthy team.

    It makes for a fun year. The pressure is definately on Iowa’s young O line.

  • hoopthemottle

    Many factors contribute to winning (or losing) even a single game, as we saw so clearly in 4 losses in ’08 and in nearly all of our wins in ’09. The difference is razor thin. Same is true in a winning (or losing) season, but the factors are exponentially increased and include the off-season factors that are mentioned above.

    One factor that Jon did not mention is that I believe KF and staff have learned how to live with success–which is where we failed after 2004. Look at interviews with AJ Edds last December; the environment changed, and entitlement was shown the door, for good, I believe.

    This is an intelligent group of coaches. With the factors that they can control, we will be fine.

  • tjhawk85

    Iowa having a huge target on their backs will be where this season is different….and also similar to 2005. The hawks won’t sneak up on anyone, but there is a chance to have a GREAT season. The early season game at Arizona will be a tough test, and they will be ready for payback. Let’s hope Iowa plays on the road like they did last year, which was amazing. If the hawks can play at home this year like usual….look out!

  • homerHAWKeye777

    The good news is that Iowa had the target on its back through a legit hunk of the 2009 season and still managed to win nearly all of its games. Penn State wanted revenge … and yet were denied. Wisky got thumped in ’08 and likely wanted revenge … and yet were denied. UNI played the underdog card almost to perfection … and yet Iowa still managed to find a way to win. Indiana is a team that, as of late, has tended to view Iowa as being very mortal … and they came out and punched us in the chin … and yet Stanzi and Co came out in the 4th quarter and provided a knockout blow.

    The target was on our back against BOTH Michigan and Michigan State. The Iowa game meant a lot to both teams at the time … as it signified each teams BEST SHOT at staying in the conference title hunt. What happened … both were DENIED!

    So I really think that that is the first bit of good news. For whatever reason Iowa teams under Ferentz have tended to kinda suck when the target has been on their backs. However, that was not so in 2009. I think that a part of that has to deal with the leadership on the field that Iowa benefited from in ’09 … however, I also think that another part of it deals with the fact that Ferentz and Co have probably gotten better at motivating the troops (thank goodness … it’s been one of my primary complaints of the staff for years).

    Anyhow, I think that Ferentz will probably be able to say that given the injuries/adversity that the 2009 squad contended with … the 2010 squad could probably end up being every bit as good as the 2009 squad. However, just as Ferentz stated prior to the 2009 season … the quality and/or talent of the team means little if guys don’t step up and generate their own “stories” for the season. In 2010, it’s true that the squad has great potential. However, the success of the squad will still hinge on guys stepping up and providing us with a wealth of feel-good stories. Some of the sort of stories that could propel the 2010 squad to greatness includes ….

    - The OL surpassing expectation and allowing Iowa to have a 100 yard rusher through the great majority of our games. This is NOT too much to ask … it really could happen.

    - The TEs step up as a unit and make us all collectively say … Tony who? (or Brandon who?)

    - Clayborn continues improving and has a SR campaign that is on par with those of UM’s Graham and Nebby’s Suh. While this has been a talking point for some while … it’s not at all impossible.

    - Binns continues to physically develop and not only gets pushed around less … but also not only becomes the swat-master on the DL … but also starts becoming the INT-master on the DL! With his long arms … give him a run blitz or two … and we could be seeing him nab some pick sixes through his career.

    - Nielsen steps up and makes us realize that Edds was not only a great player … but also a great MENTOR.

    - Iowa’s trio of RBs flex their muscles and versatility and keep opposing Ds guessing. Wouldn’t be cool if we could refer to ARob, Wegher, and Hampton as the “three-headed-monster?”

    - Stanzi continues his pattern of identifying problem areas in his game and cleaning them up. Rather quietly he went from a liability when it came to fumbling the ball in ’08 … and then in ’09 it pretty much too either really poor blocking on the OL or a significant injury to force him to fumble the ball! Similarly, Stanzi could not only continue to build upon his productivity at QB … I think that he could end up really cutting down the number of picks he throws too. If Stanzi is able to make such strides … Iowa will not only win a lot (or possibly all) of its games … but we could win more of them by decent margins!

    - Keenan Davis is a young man who could really be poised to jump on the scene for us. He got his feet wet in ’09 and performed pretty well … however, Ferentz’s comments lead me to believe that Keenan is capable of being one of the REALLY BIG surprise stories of the 2010 season!

    - Sandeman proved in the Orange bowl that he is FAR MORE than just a serviceable WR. Sandeman too is capable of really leaving a VERY positive mark on the 2010 season!

    - Don’t get me started about Ballard. The guy has the potential to put up a Babs-like season … from a “role” position, no less!

    - Don’t get me started about Ballard. He could legitimately make us all say Mitch King who after his SR campaign ….

    - Sash could continue his run at history … by continuing his ball-hawking ways. Move over Kinnick …

    - Hyde or Bernstine could shut the pundits up too … many of whom are claiming that Spievey’s departure leaves a gaping hole in Iowa’s secondary. Having positive stories come out of the CB spot will continue to be really important for us too.

  • johnpossible

    Word!

  • droidhawk

    We just went 11-2 and won the orange bowl. If we go 9-4 this year, I’ll be just fine with that. Everybody relax. When was the last time we won a BCS game? 1959? Take a chill pill and enjoy the ride. Every team and every year is different.

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