fbpx HN Iowa Football Prediction Accuracy | HawkeyeNation

HN Iowa Football Prediction Accuracy

August 22, 2012

Written by Jon Miller

Hawkeye Nation

In my line of work, it’s good to have thick skin. That’s especially true with the content of this site, which is predominantly opinion based.

While I haven’t always had it, I believe I have accrued enough scar tissue to withstand most insults related to my work. This really comes in handy this time of year (or in a few months after the season is over) as it relates to predictions.

Some predictions aren’t the same as others. For every direct hit there is a failed prognostication of glory.

I’ve compiled all of my Iowa football preseason predictions dating back to the 2001 Iowa football season. I launched HawkeyeNation.com on April 12th of 2001, so I figured that would be a good place to start and while I am sure I made a prediction in 2000, as I was writing for SuperHawkeye.com at the time, I cannot locate it and that version of Rivals.com went down in a blaze of glory. Here are my annual preseason picks, with the final regular season record and how close I came to hitting the mark.

2011 Game by Game Prediction: 8-4 (off by one, 7-5)
2010 Game by Game Prediction: 12-0 (off by five, 7-5)
2009 Game by Game Prediction: 10-2 (direct hit)

Here are my predictions for earlier seasons, links not included as they are to premium articles I wrote for Scout.com or Rivals.com, or as published in Hawkeye Nation Magazine:

Continue reading below

Related In HawkeyeNation Forums

2008: 8-4 (direct hit)
2007: 9-3 (off by three, 6-6)
2006: 11-1 (off by five, 6-6)
2005: 9-2 (off by two, 7-4)
2004: 8-3 (off by one, 9-2)
2003: 8-4 (off by one, 9-3)
2002: 8-4 (off by three, 11-1)
2001: 7-4 (off by one, 6-5)

So there are the raw numbers.  Let’s toss them into the blender and see what stands out.

-In my opinion, getting to within on win of the actual final total is something I am going to count as successful prediction.  Anything outside of that, in just an 11 or 12 game regular season schedule is not something I am going to tell my dad about.

Continue reading below

11 seasons:  6 years being within one win of the actual total (including two direct hits) and 5 years being outside of that mark.  One of those five was off by two, with two of those years being off by a staggering five games.

RECENT TREND:  If I would have asked you, faithful reader, prior to looking at this item, ‘How have I been doing in my Iowa football predictions the last four years?”, you likely would have said ‘How’s that 12-0 working out?’.  That’s with good reason, because when you miss the mark that much, it’s not going to get swept under the rug.  It also overshadows the fact that in the last four years I have two direct hit predictions and one off by one prediction.

Continue reading below

THE HOMER LINE: Another common jab (I am looking at you, CycloneFanatics) is that I overestimate Iowa each year, so my picks need to be watered down.  Well, in the 11 years I have been making public predictions I have either directly hit Iowa’s final win total or underestimated their final win total five of the 11 seasons.  Sure, that means in six of the 11 seasons I have missed on the high side.  However, two of those six years I have overestimated by just one win.

IF YOU ARE GONNA MISS, MISS BIG:  You know who said that as it relates to predictions?  Nobody, that’s who.  I have had two ‘off by five’ predictions in the 11 years.  That’s really hard to do with a straight face, so I will at least give myself a few points for trying.

On the whole, I am not entirely pleased with a ‘6-5’ record; six years of quality predictions and five years of missing the mark.  Yet I must look on the bright side; I may have a future in meteorology (Sorry Ed Wilson!)

Trending in Forums View All >

HawkeyeNation Archives View All >

Hawkeye Nation

Patrick McCaffery Goes In-Depth about Road to Recovery

Rob Howe

June 2, 2020

Hawkeye freshman feeling strong after battling residual effects from cancer.

Hawkeye Nation

HN Podcast: Hawkeyes Reacting to Racism, College Football’s Return, Fans in Stands

Rob Howe

June 2, 2020

Rob Howe and Andrew Downs return for with their latest edition.

Hawkeye Nation

Kirk Ferentz Speaks with Hawkeyes About Racism in America

Rob Howe

June 2, 2020

Iowa coach addresses national issue with members of the Iowa team.

Hawkeye Nation

Remembering Nile Kinnick on the Anniversary of His Passing

Rick Brown

June 2, 2020

HN’s Rick Brown shares his connection to the Hawkeye legend.

Hawkeye Nation

Fran McCaffery Uses Platform to Speak Out Against Systemic Racism

Rob Howe

June 1, 2020

Iowa basketball coach voices concerns for players of color.

Hawkeye Nation

’21 Wing Daniel Nixon Enjoys Virtual Visit with Hawkeyes

Rob Howe

May 31, 2020

North Carolina prep schooler discusses meeting with Iowa staff.

Hawkeye Nation

Hawkeye Coaches Working Hard for Joe Alt’s Commitment

Rob Howe

May 31, 2020

Iowa legacy feeling good about relationship with program.

Hawkeye Nation

Brown: Iowa Football Players to Watch Heading into ’20 Season

Rick Brown

May 30, 2020

Names Hawkeye fans on which Hawkeye fans should keep an eye this coming campaign.

TOP