It is my sincere hope that you are reading this item while taking a few minutes away from time with your family, loved ones and friends.  Tis the season for being thankful, and I am certainly thankful for the family the Lord has blessed me with.

I am also thankful for another memorable Iowa football season, and I do not say that flippantly.  It was an amazing year for Kirk Ferentz’s program; another 10 win season, another Big Ten Coach of the Year Award and another January bowl game is in the offing.

It’s the ‘yeah, but which bowl game?’ that is stoking the fires of Hawkeye hearts right now.  While you prepare for a weekend of feasting, keep an eye on a few football games that could play a role in where Iowa goes bowling this year.  We’ll help you figure out which teams to root for, with Iowa making it to a BCS bowl game being the objective.

Thanksgiving Day:  Spend time getting your grub on and watching a few meaningless and likely boring NFL games  Then comes the nightcap; Texas at Texas A&M.  On paper, the Longhorns should blow the Aggies off the field; Texas opened as a 22.5 point road favorite.  That number has come down to around 21, but that is a huge margin.  This game used to be a great rivalry, but not so much any more.  However, this series has seen some upsets, as recently as the Major Applewhite era.  If Texas Loses:  This would have an impact on Iowa, but Texas losing this game means they would likely be out of the National Championship race and TCU would likely play the Florida-Alabama winner.  Since TCU does not have any BCS bowl affiliation, it would mean the Sugar would get the first ‘replacement’ pick and they would take the SEC title game loser.  This would mean there would be no second replacement pick, so the Orange Bowl would pick next, followed by the Fiesta.  I have been of the opinion that if the Orange Bowl has a chance to take Penn State, they will do it.  Under a Texas losing one of its last two games scenario, I think the Orange takes the Nittany Lions, which eliminates Iowa from BCS contention and would have them selected by the Capital One Bowl.  So you may want to root for Texas to win out.

Friday, November 27th:  Illinois is at Cincinnati and Pittsburgh is at West Virginia.  The only thing at ‘stake’ here is losses by either Cincy or Pitt may mean Iowa would move up a slot in the BCS standings, but since the Hawkeye will be among the Final Top 14 anyway, this really is nothing more than window dressing since just one school from the Big East will go to the BCS and Iowa has no shot of a Top 4 final finish, which would guarantee them a BCS bowl bid.

Saturday, November 28th:  This day carries a lot more weight for the Hawkeyes.  There are several people in the media that feel the Oklahoma State-Oklahoma game is a BCS play in game for the Cowboys.  If they beat Oklahoma, they will finish 10-2.  If Texas wins out, which I think is likely, the Longhorns will be the #2 ranked team in the final BCS standings, which means the Fiesta gets the second replacement pick, after the Sugar.  Some feel that the Fiesta will take Oklahoma State with their first pick, due to their tie in with the Big 12 conference.  They are under no obligation to take a team from the Big 12, however, as the Big 12 champion will likely be Texas and they Longhorns will play for the national title.  This is going to cause the Fiesta folks a lot of hand wringing and debate.  Do they take Oklahoma State with the first pick, with the likely knowledge that if they pass on Iowa or Penn State with this first pick, they will not have a chance at one of those great traveling fan bases the next time they get to pick?

I strongly believe that Oklahoma State will be there for the Fiesta if that committee takes a Big Ten team with their first pick.  Perhaps the Cowboys would be taken by the Orange or the Sugar, but I don’t think that would be the case; I think they would be there for the Fiesta’s second pick.  If they are taken before that pick, the Big 12 can’t be too unhappy because they will be getting their second BCS team payday of $4.5 million dollars.  If Oklahoma State beats the Sooners, I think it’s likely that the Big 12 is getting two teams.  I also feel the Big Ten will get two teams, as will the SEC.  With TCU slated to finish ahead of Boise State in the final BCS standings, this would leave the Broncos out of the BCS mix.

What is a bit perplexing, as well as funny to me are the people projecting an Oklahoma State-Boise State Fiesta Bowl.  It’s like they haven’t spent any time thinking things through.

6:  The number of automatic bids that go to BCS conferences
3:  Extra bids from the SEC, Big Ten and Big 12 (if Oklahoma State wins)
1:  The bid that will go to TCU

No room for Boise State in that scenario…and to think that a BCS bowl is going to take Boise State over Iowa or Penn State is laughable, and simply a non-starter.

Now, if Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma and the Texas wins its last two games, AND if the Fiesta takes Oklahoma State with their first pick, the Orange picks next…revert to the previous Orange scenario, in my opinion; Penn State to the Orange and Iowa to the Cap One.

If Oklahoma rises up and beats Oklahoma State, then I think there is about a 75% chance the Fiesta takes the Iowa Hawkeyes…maybe higher than that, because the Cowboys would not be in contention for a BCS bid.  Under that scenario, I could see Iowa vs Boise State in the Fiesta.

If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, I still think there is a decent chance that the Fiesta takes Iowa with their first pick, and Iowa could face Oklahoma State in the Fiesta, as the Fiesta folks could get Okie State on their second pick.

So Hawkeye fans, root for former Hawkeye Bob Stoops and his Sooners at home on Saturday to take most of the drama out of the next two weeks, because the Fiesta will NOT take Penn State over Iowa.

By the way, unranked and 6-5 Oklahoma is currently an 8 point favorite in that game.  Quarterback Zac Robinson has been cleared to play and as of Monday, Coach Mike Gundy said he was at “full speed”

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