When Iowa Runs: The Michigan State defense is allowing just 99 yards per game on the ground, and they stifled Michigan when the two teams met a few weeks back. The Wolverines had negative rushing yards until late in the fourth quarter and finished with under 30 for the entire game. However, they did allow nearly 200 yards on the ground against Wisconsin, whose running attack is vastly different from Michigan’s and more like Iowa’s. Greg Jones is a tackling machine at linebacker for the Spartans, second in the nation with over 12 tackles per game. This is not a ‘steel curtain’ run stopping unit, as they have not faced many great running teams save Wisconsin, and the Badgers had success. That really opened up Wisconsin’s play action game, and tight end Garrett Graham had three touchdown receptions that day.
When Iowa Passes: The success of the Badger running game really opened up their play action game, and tight end Garrett Graham had three touchdown receptions that day. Sound like a familiar recipie for success? Yeah, it’s what the Hawks look to do every single week. If Iowa gets any sort of ground game going, it could be a long night for the Spartans, as their secondary is not the strength of the team. Their pass efficiency defense is 95th in the country; one could argue that their pass defense is not great because teams have not been able to run on them. That’s the first place I typically look in a situation like this. But I don’t think the Spartans are a great team in the secondary, and I think they can be had; they allow 235 passing yards per game.
When Michigan State Runs: Glenn Winston was hurt a few weeks back, and Larry Caper is the main back right now. He was fairly well sought after on the recruiting front, but his season high in rushing yards came two weeks ago against an Illinois defense that is plain not good. He had 95 yards on 16 carries. Other than that, his 63 yards on 16 carries last week against a disappointing Northwestern defense is his next best effort. This is not last year’s Michigan State running game, namely because Javon Ringer is no longer around. But he didn’t get 100 on the Hawks, either. If Iowa can make Michigan State one dimensional, the pass rush can be turned loose and the turnovers will come….
When Michigan State Passes: Kirk Cousins is their thrower and Keith Nichol is their dual threat. Nichol didn’t play last week, as he is recovering from an elbow injury. Cousins has an ankle that he says is about 90%, an injury he suffered against Michigan back on 10/3. Cousins is the highest rated passer in the Big Ten for an offense that has the Big Ten’s top passing attack at 280 yards per game; that’s also #17 in all of college football, which is pretty impressive in this age of spread formations and tricked out passing games. They are not doing it with mirrors; Blair White has 45 receptions and six touchdowns, B.J. Cunningham and Mark Dell have combined for 45 and four touchdowns. White is the most dangerous deep threat, and Dell can be when he is focused on catching the ball.
Intangibles: Everyone is saying that the intangibles favor Michigan State. They are playing for a Rose Bowl, too. They are the underdog, at least on paper and in the standings. This is their last shot to keep things going, that if they lose, the things they had hoped to play for in August are out the window. I go along with that last bit; this is do or die time for their football season. Lose, and 8-4 is the best you can do and that might mean they get pushed down to San Antonio in a year where Ohio State will be available for the Cap One or the Outback, along with Penn State and possibly Michigan.
A key area to focus on is turnovers. Michigan State is 95th in the nation in turnover margin, as they have given away the football more than they have taken it away. Iowa is 4th in the nation in turnover margin, and 2nd in the nation in total turnovers forced. If Iowa can slow down Michigan State’s below average running game and get a consistent pass rush, the Hawks could be in business. In Iowa’s three road games this year, they have forced 12 turnovers.
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MORE NOTES….
This is the 41st meeting between the two schools and Iowa leads the series 20-18-2. Michigan State won last year’s game in East Lansing (16-13). Iowa has won seven of the last 11 games in the series. The last Iowa victory came in 2007 (34-27) in double overtime. Iowa’s last win at East Lansing came in 1995 (21-7). The Hawkeyes are 8-10-1 in games at East Lansing.
Iowa has opened the season with seven straight wins for the first time since 1985. The Hawkeyes won their first seven games on the way to the 1985 Big Ten title. The loss, in the eighth game, was at Ohio State. Iowa also won its first seven games in 1900, 1921 and 1922. The Hawkeyes played just seven games in both 1921 and 1922 and posted a 7-0-1 record in 1900. Iowa is 3-0 in Big Ten play for the first time since 2002 when the Hawkeyes won all eight conference games.
Iowa has won 11 straight games, the second longest streak in the nation. Florida has 16 straight wins. The Iowa win streak is the longest since a 20-game streak between 1920 and 1923.
Iowa is the only team in the BCS top 25 that has three wins over other teams in the top 25. Iowa has defeated Penn State (13), Wisconsin (21) and Arizona (22). Alabama has two wins over top 25 teams. Iowa & Alabama are the only two teams in the nation with 7-0 records.
Iowa has collected 22 turnovers in seven games, including 15 pass interceptions. Iowa leads the nation in interceptions, is second in total turnovers, fourth in turnover margin (+1.6) and 28th in fumble recoveries. The Hawkeyes had 23 interceptions in 13 games last season.
Iowa is tied for 10th in fewest fumbles lost (three, two in the opening game), ranks fourth in fewest penalties per game (4.1), 10th in penalty yards per game (32.1) and 12th in time of possession (32:38).
Iowa’s win over Wisconsin gave the Hawkeyes 66 wins since the start of the 2002 season, which ties as the 17th highest total in Division I football. The list includes the following: USC (88); Boise State (87); LSU (82); Oklahoma (81); Texas (80); Ohio State (79); Georgia (76); Virginia Tech (75); Utah (74); TCU (74); Florida(73); West Virginia (72); Auburn (69); Boston College (68); Wisconsin (67); Texas Tech (67); IOWA (66); Hawaii (64); California (63); and Missouri (59).
Northwestern led Michigan State 7-0 at the half last week.
Iowa is just the second Big Ten team to win at Penn State and Wisconsin in the same season. Michigan has won at both places in the same season in three different years. Michigan won at Penn State, Wisconsin and Michigan State in 1997.
For the season, Iowa is averaging 5.5 yards on first down, 4.1 yards on second down, 6.8 on third down and no gain on fourth down.
Iowa averaged eight plays, 51.8 yards and 4:19 in elapsed time on four scoring drives in the win at Wisconsin. Iowa’s two touchdown drives in that win averaged eight plays, 66.5 yards and 4:03 in elapsed time. In seven games, Iowa’s 30 scoring drives have averaged 7.2 plays, 50.6 yards and 3:25 in elapsed time. Iowa’s opponents have had 16 scoring drives, averaging 10.4 plays, 62.6 yards and 4:43 in elapsed time.
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