Early thoughts, for entertainment purposes only…seriously, I am one game below .500 for the year in my picks against the spread I do for fun on the radio, so I REALLY mean for entertainment purposes only.  Here are the opening lines from USA Today for this week’s Big Ten action

Iowa -17.5 vs NW
Wisconsin -11 AT Indiana
MSU -18 vs Western Michigan
Michigan -3.5 vs Purdue
Minnesota -6 vs Illinois
PSU -4 vs Ohio State

The Iowa spread seems too high.  Then again, if QB Mike Kafka doesn’t play, or can’t play 100% with a run/pass threat, I think the Hawks can cover this number and might have their first second half with breathing room since the Iowa State game on September 12th.

Can Indiana have much left in the tank?  I think Wisconsin is going to roll them, because the Badgers looked real impressive in their 37-0 win against Purdue last week, and the Boilers had some momentum coming into that one.  Wisconsin is now rested, having the bye before they played Purdue, and they have a 10-win season firmly in their sights.  No letdown here.

Same for MSU; how much do they have left in the tank?  WMU is a disappointing 4-5 and this could be a power attack for Sparty to get back on track.  I think the Spartans put 40 on the board this week, but will their defense be able to hold WMU to 18 or less?  I don’t think I would touch MSU, not with ‘Sparty’ back in the program this year.  I had thought Mark Dantonio might have scrubbed it out, but we are talking generations of Sparty occurrences and you can’t just apply the Febreeze to remove that stench.

Might this be the biggest non-bowl game for Michigan in the last 30 or 40 years?  Bigger than the 2006 #1 Ohio State v #2 Michigan game to end the season?  Maybe not, and I am hardly a Wolverine historian.  However, this game against Purdue, if Michigan loses, could be one of the most significant games they have played in four decades, going back to before they hired Bo Schembechler.  If they lose, I really start to wonder if Rich Rodriguez will be able to hold back the boosters that are currently raising funds to buy him out.  They will have a new Athletic Director for next year, too.  Keep an eye on this one…and if Michigan would decide to making a coaching change, you are looking at a program that has been built the last two years for a specific style of football that is a total departure from Michigan’s past…would that set them back even further?

Minnesota showed some nice offensive punch against Michigan State in their first game without Eric Decker.  I guess these last few games will give them a head start on life without Decker, who is a senior.  Illinois finally played something resembling football, at home against Michigan, but the Wolverines were very giving on that day.  I don’t think I would touch this one, as I don’t have confidence in either program on the consistency front.

Aside from Iowa needing to take care of business against Northwestern, the Penn State-Ohio State game may be the biggest game not involving Iowa that Hawkeye fans want to watch for this entire season, or at least to date.  If Iowa beats Northwestern and if Penn State beats Ohio State, then Iowa can afford to go 1-1 over its final two games and still play in the Rose Bowl.  That’s not a bad thing to have in your hip pocket as you prepare to go to Columbus, a place where you have just two wins since the 1950′s.  I think Penn State wins this game by double digits, as they are playing better than anyone in the league right now.

There is one additional game that Iowa fans will want to pay attention to this weekend:

Alabama -9 vs LSU:  If Iowa goes undefeated, they are going to need Texas to lose once and for either Florida or Alabama to lose in the regular season and for that team to then win the SEC if they want to be assured a spot in the national title game.  This might be the last, best chance for that to happen.  This game is going to be a slugfest as each team plays good defense and neither team’s offense has looked all that great.

A line that doesn’t seem right:  Stanford is only a 4.5 point underdog at home to Oregon?

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