This is something good to get out into the open right now before we prepare to predict Iowa’s 2010 season, something we will do in late May or early June as we have for each of the past six years.

In the past, we’ve done that in the magazine, but since HawkeyeNation.com is no longer tied to a magazine, we’ll do it right here online and free for all Hawkeye fans.

Some of you are aware of this, while others aren’t; there is a Rose Bowl caveat to consider this year as we try to predict the Big Ten’s bowl picture.

As has been the case for the past several decades, the champion from the Big Ten and the champion from the Pac 10 will meet in the Rose Bowl…however, there are some asterisks.

If either or both of those two teams are ranked 1 or 2 in the final BCS standings, they play for then national title.

In the past, the Rose Bowl has been free to select a team from the at large pool to fill that spot, and has typically gone with a team from the conference that produced the #1 or #2 ranked team.

For instance, in 2007, Illinois went 9-3 but was in the Top 14 of the final BCS standings, meaning they were a part of the eligible BCS bowl pool.  Ohio State played for the national championship, meaning the Rose had one slot to fill.  It chose Illinois over teams with more wins and a higher BCS rating, and pitted them against USC.

IF that happens this year, meaning a team from the Big Ten plays for the national title, and if there is a second BCS eligible Big Ten team available, they might not get the same luxury afforded Illinois IF a team from a non-BCS conference is ranked inside the final BCS Top 12.

The first instance where something like this takes place (and through 2013), the qualifying school from a non-BCS conference must be granted the Rose Bowl bid vacated by either the Big Ten or Pac 10 national title game participant.

Let’s create an example to make this easier to understand.

Boise State is going to be a preseason Top 5 team, and if TCU isn’t, they will be very close.

Say one of those teams makes it into the Top 12 of the final BCS standings that are released in early December.  Say that Ohio State finishes the year ranked 1st or 2nd in the final BCS poll and say Iowa is also in the Top 12, meaning they are eligible for at large selection to the BCS bowl pool, as Ohio State would earn the automatic bid by being ranked higher in the BCS standings.

In this hypothetical, that would mean that Boise State or TCU would get the Big Ten slot in the 2011 Rose Bowl, leaving Iowa at the whims of at large pool selection for the Orange, Sugar or Fiesta.

Stinks, don’t it?  At least in this hypothetical it does.

Think this is far fetched?

Here is a list of past seasons where if this rule would have been in place, where it would have affected the Rose Bowl:

2007:  We had Illinois vs USC (Ohio State played for the title), but had the rule been in place, it would have been USC vs #10 Hawaii.

2006: We had Michigan vs USC (Ohio State played for the title), and while Michigan would have been guaranteed an at large selection to a BCS bowl because they were ranked in the final BCS Top Four (they were third), it would not have been the Rose Bowl.  That would have been USC vs Boise State, as BSU was ranked 8th in the final BCS poll.

2004:  It was Michigan vs Vince Young’s Texas Longhorns, and it was a classic, played just after Iowa had beaten LSU in the Capital One Bowl.  A great football day for ABC, but one that would not have been were this rule in place, because Texas would not have been in the Rose Bowl, as USC had a ticket to the national title game, and Utah was ranked 6th in the final BCS standings.  Michigan vs Urban Meyer’s Utah Utes, quarterbacked by Alex Smith.  Probably entertaining, but likely not the classic we saw.

I think you get the picture.  This is no small asterisk, and certainly not to Iowa, Ohio State or Wisconsin fans this year.

Some of you may think it’s a stretch to assume that TCU or Boise State are going to finish in the final Top 12.

First off, these two programs are assured to have their highest ever pre-season rankings in the history of their programs.  That matters because they will be able to absorb an early season loss and still be in the Final Top 12 at season’s end.

Boise State plays against Virginia Tech right out of the chute on the east coast.  It won’t be in Blacksburg, but it will hardly be a neutral Fed Ex Field in Washington, D.C.  VT is going to be a pre-season Top 10 team, too.   Then a few weeks later, Boise State will HOST Oregon State, a pre-season Top 25 team, but one that could have been better if their quarterback would have been granted an NCAA waiver for another year of eligibility.  Outside of those two games, it’s not a tough road for Boise.  Here is a link to their entire schedule.   If you are an Iowa fan hoping for a trip to the Rose Bowl at worst this year, root for Boise to win every game and play for the title, or to lose two games.  11-1 seems likely for Boise State if they fall to Virginia Tech, which would put them in the Top 12 of the final BCS poll.

How about TCU? Here is a link to their schedule.   They also play Oregon State, right out of the gates, plus a game against Baylor (Robert Griffin, get healthy!).  They are at Utah but host BYU.  I don’t see them running the table, but I could see 11-1, which would have them in the final 12 or very close.

So Hawk fans, here is your 2010 rooting guide if you want Iowa to play in the Rose Bowl, at worst:

-Iowa to go undefeated; like I needed to say that
-If Iowa doesn’t run the table, root for either Boise State or TCU to run the table and play for the national title.  Only ONE team from a non BCS conference is guaranteed an at large bid.
-Iowa to go 11-1 and be the Big Ten’s automatic Rose Bowl qualifier

If Iowa is one of the teams in the Final Top 14, which keeps them in the at large BCS pool, and if they somehow would get aced out of the Rose Bowl by Boise State or TCU, they could still land as an at large selection for the Sugar or Fiesta; a return invite to the Orange is highly unlikely.

So here’s an early rundown:

If Iowa goes…
-12-0: National title game in Arizona
-11-1: Rose, Sugar or Fiesta.  If a BCS buster like Boise or TCU is in the Top 12 in this scenario, and if Iowa does not earn the Big Ten’s automatic bid, then Iowa will not go to the Rose Bowl, so it’s Sugar or Fiesta.
-10-2: While they could still qualify for a BCS at-large selection with this record, like they did one year ago, given the new Rose Bowl rule and the likelihood that Boise or TCU will be in the final BCS Top 12, Iowa would probably be looking at the Cap One, with Fiesta and Sugar more remote.

Anything less than 10-2, and Badger fans will probably get more out of this article than Iowa fans.

Finally, I know some of you hate items like this…those of you that are superstitious, the cart before the horse crowd.  I’m not superstitious, as I know that anything I have ever said or written, or anything you have ever thought, or any time you forgot to wear the right t-shirt the night before the game whilst sleeping on the wrong side of the bed has never, ever affected the outcome of an Iowa football game.

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