Key Losses (source: NationalChamps.net)
OFFENSE: Carlos Brown-RB, Brandon Minor-RB, Greg Mathews-WR, LaTerryal Savoy-WR, Kevin Grady-FB, Mark Ortmann-OT, David Moosman-C, Jason Olesnavage-K
DEFENSE: Brandon Graham-DE, Stevie Brown-SLB, Boubacar Cissoko-CB, Donovan Warren-CB (NFL)
Special Teams: Zoltan Mesko-P
Jon’s Point Spread Prediction: Iowa -3.5

Before Michigan plays Iowa: For the second year in a row, the Wolverines will face arch rival Michigan State before playing Iowa. Last year, both of these games were on the road and the young Wolverines lost them both, close contests each time. This year those game are at home. After the Iowa game is a trip to Penn State, so the Maize & Blue will have their game faces on as there will not be a breather during that stretch.

The good news for Michigan is that they return eight defensive starters. The bad news is those guys were the primary components of one of the worst defenses in school history and their best player, defensive end Brandon Graham, will be on an NFL roster in the fall of 2010.

The Wolverines were 82nd in total defense, 77th in scoring defense (allowing nearly 28 points per game) and 91st in rushing defense (allowing a mind blowing 171.9 yards per game on the ground). Remember that during the 2006 season, Michigan was #1 in the nation in rushing defense allowing just 43.4 yards per game, 10th in total defense and 15th in scoring defense. Oh my, how quickly the Wolverines have fallen.

Part of their problem is the coaching change and philosophical offensive paradigm switch that brought with it. Michigan’s defensive statistics are not going to be as good under Rich Rodriguez as they were for many of the past three decades, because their offense is fast temp and shorter on time of possession. That will put more pressure on the defense and keep them on the field longer; Michigan was 116th out of 120 teams in time of possession last year. Then again, Oregon was 117th and Cincinnati was dead last, and those teams combined to lose just three games.

In the Big Ten, if you cannot stop the run, you have little to no chance to succeed. Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Purdue were ranked 8th, 9th, 10th and 11th in the Big Ten in rushing defense; none of those teams qualified for a bowl game last year and those were the teams that occupied those same rankings in the final standings, just in a different order.

The good news for Michigan is if they can just get their defense to be slightly below average, they could win eight games. They were 3rd in the league in scoring average in Big Ten games but 8th in points allowed. They had a Top 25 rushing offense, but their passing number ranked 81st, thus their total offensive ranking was 59th. That was quite a bit better than Iowa’s total offensive ranking, but the Hawkeyes had one of the best defenses in the nation.

However, the Wolverines did score 28 points against the Hawkeyes, their third best point total in league play, yet they killed themselves with five turnovers that night in Kinnick Stadium. Well, their offense scored 21 and they had the pick six.

The biggest question facing Michigan this offseason will be who they will put under center once the Big Ten season rolls around. Prior to his visit to Iowa City, Tate Forcier was writing a legendary script for Big Blue under center. Late game rallies that came through and one that fell short in overtime against Michigan State in the driving rain when he was less than 100%. Denard Robinson came in late against Iowa and sparked his team, but he has yet to develop a strong passing game and his late interception sealed Michigan’s fate.

Forcier is a better passer, and if Robinson can make strides in that area this offseason, he would appear to be the perfect fit in Rodriguez’s spread option attack. Michigan’s top two rushers from one year ago, Brown and Minor, are gone.

Michigan still has talent; Rich Rod has done quite well on the recruiting trails with his first three classes and it wasn’t like Lloyd Carr was under performing in this area before he left.

That being said, this program has yet to develop the right chemistry under Rodriguez and this third year of his regime will be the one that pays for all. If they get out of the starting gates slow, the negativity that is hovering over the program right now (which is significant) might be too much to overcome.

Michigan hosts UConn, goes to Notre Dame, hosts UMass and Bowling Green before they open league play at Indiana then the two home games with Michigan State and Iowa. If they lose to Notre Dame, that will be strike one against Rich Rod. A home loss to Michigan State might tip the apple cart. If they get to the Iowa game with just one loss, then Iowa will get their best shot. If Robinson is playing quarterback, anything is possible and it will be on the Iowa offense to pull this one out.

Do not underestimate the civil war that is taking place at Michigan between the supporters of the old guard (Lloyd Carr) and Rodriguez. Their new athletics director is an ‘old guard’ guy, former CEO of Domino’s Pizza and longtime friend of Carr’s. There are a lot of people on campus that want to see Rich Rodriguez fail. Hopefully the Hawks can provide an assist on October 16th.

Who does Iowa play before traveling to Michigan? Nobody; Iowa has a bye between their October 2nd game against Penn State and their 10/16 contest in the newly renovated Big House.

Iowa vs ISU Sneak Peek
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Iowa vs Penn State Sneak Peek

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