Ricky Stanzi is the #1 QB prospect in the 2011 NFL Draft?
According to something called FantasyFootballMetrics.com he is. Check out their write up linked here.
This time of year, you find a lot of websites you have never visited before if you are someone that enjoys NFL draft speculation. I enjoy it more and more each year as I spend more and more time watching college football games nearly every day of the week and literally five times on Saturday (thanks to two DVR’s).
I have watched at least one game involving 95% of teams from BCS conferences for the last three years, and have seen half of those teams play at least three games. If it’s college football and it’s on tv, I am gonna record it and watch it on my DVR where I can hit one button and skip the time in between plays and just watch the action.
So my ‘knowledge’ or rather, awareness of great players from across the country has gone up substantially since I put the first DVR into my home, so the NFL draft and the talk leading up to it has become sport for me during a time of year where there are no games to talk about.
That’s how I came across this site and this link, and with the Stanzi angle, I clicked on it.
I don’t know who these guys are, don’t know exactly how they arrive at their data compilations, but what interests me is they have taken the time to create some type of formula that helps them produce a NFL production hypothesis. It doesn’t mean it will happen that way, doesn’t mean it’s worth any more than your own eyeball test, but this time of year I really find this stuff fascinating.
Here is a snippet of what the article had to say about Stanzi:
As I input the key game/tougher opponent game data for Ricky Stanzi into our algorithm for analyzing college QBs, I just kept saying “that’s pretty good” after each game entered…and it just kept rolling. Before I went to take a look at Stanzi’s overall total score in our system I thought, “this could be pretty good”. When I did finally look at the overall rating, it wasn’t good — it was great. It was college-to-NFL projected “elite”. High up on the list wedged in-between Carson Palmer and Mark Sanchez, and slightly above Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers. I had to go back check a 2nd and 3rd time to see if I had made an error. No error…
That’s just the beginning of this amazingly detailed analysis of not just Rick Stanzi, but rather how their system can plug in players we know to have had great careers and how they would have projected coming out of college.
One of the aspects they measure are ‘red flags’. They studied QB prospects over the last decade, and plugged in a few older eras, into their formula and only came up with 14 players that didn’t produce any red flags. One of them is Andrew Luck, who is not draft eligible this year. They also removed John Elway and Tony Pike, leaving a list of 11 quarterbacks. 9 of those 11 have gone on to be good or elite level quarterbacks, with only Byron Leftwich and Kevin Kolb outside of that grade.
According to their metrics, Ricky Stanzi makes that list.
Seriously, if you are a stat junky, an NFL draft junky or a Hawkeye fan (that should just about cover all of you), give the link a click and read it all. It’s highly entertaining, perhaps enlightening and a great read.
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