Former Wisconsin coach Barry Alvarez stirred the Big Ten expansion pot on Friday with a story that appeared on ESPN.com.

Alvarez said, in part, whilst speaking about Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delaney’s thoughts to expansion,  “I have a sense he is going to take this year to really be more aggressive about it,” Alvarez said. “I just think everybody feels [expansion] is the direction to go, coaches and administrators.”

Alvarez also hit on a topic that has been bandied about more than others in recent months, and that is that the Big Ten takes a national hit when it ends it season three weeks before the rest of the nation.  It’s almost forgotten and that can have an impact on BCS rankings and possible national championship opportunities, plus individual awards like the Heisman Trophy.

While teams from the SEC, Pac 10, ACC, Big 12 and Big East play right up to the day before the BCS Selections are announced, Big Ten teams have packed it in weeks prior.

This year, the Big Ten season ended on November 21st for every team save Illinois, who played two more games beyond that date.  However, the league games were over on 11/21.  The BCS Selection Day was December 6th, 15 days later.

Penn State Coach Joe Paterno gave similar statements back in May.

“We go into hiding for six weeks.  Everybody else is playing playoffs on television. You never see a Big Ten team mentioned. So I think that’s a handicap.  I’ve tried to talk to the Big Ten people about, ‘Let’s get a 12th team — Syracuse, Rutgers, Pitt — we could have a little bit of a playoff.’

So you have Joe Paterno and Barry Alvarez in favor of adding a 12th team.

Sure, Barry isn’t a coach any more, but he is Wisconsin’s Athletics Director.  Paterno isn’t as young as he used to be, but his opinions still hold water.

To me, them giving their opinions on this matter has me thinking this topic is being discussed quite a bit behind closed doors, and that there is momentum on this front.

So the next questions are obvious:  who will it be and when will it happen?

The ‘when’ question is a bit easier to answer than the ‘who’ question.

The current BCS contract goes through 2015.  It seems unlikely that anything would happen before that with regards to a team actually playing games in the league, but a decision on that team could come sooner.  Schedules would have to get rearranged and that sort of thing moves at glacial speed in college football.  Yet the 2015 date seems like a likely target date for this to take place.

Now as for the ‘who’…

Notre Dame: I still believe this is the team that makes the most sense and the team the Big Ten would like to add the most from an athletic point of view.  They are have a solid academic reputation, which will be a major factor.

Some people scoff at this notion, remembering how Notre Dame rebuffed the Big Ten’s invitation a decade or so ago, but the economic advantages Notre Dame had back then are no longer in place.

Ten years ago, Notre Dame’s television contract with NBC was unique and a major windfall for the Fighting Irish.  The previous deal Notre Dame had with NBC that was set to expire in 2010 paid them an estimated $9 million per year.

However, with the establishment of the Big Ten Network and the league’s ten year contract (that was signed in 2006) with ABC/ESPN was for $1 billion dollars.  It also has a 25-year, $2.8 billion dollar deal with News Corp, who owns 49% of the Big Ten Network.  The league’s year to year receipts from the News Corp deal is an equity distribution, so the exact amount each school receives each year fluctuates along with profitability.

If you average out the contracts, the ABC/ESPN deal comes out to $9 million per year while the Big Ten Network revenues average out to just over $10 million per school over the duration of the contract.  It wasn’t $10 million last year, it was closer to $7 million, but again, it’s based on profitability and the equity disbursement.

Also, add in the equity value of the 51% ownership of the Big Ten Network by the member schools, which could be around $30 to $40 million per school right now and could double within a few years.  This doesn’t count the $2 million per year the league gets from CBS for the basketball contract, which was a ten-year deal.

I think you get the point; Notre Dame’s deal with NBC, while a good deal for a private and stand alone school, isn’t really special and every Big Ten school trumps it.

Next comes the bowl payout aspects.  Notre Dame keeps its bowl revenues right now while the Big Ten puts its revenues into a pot and shares it equally, no matter if you make a bowl game or not.

Before the recent BCS contract was renegotiated, Notre Dame received $17 million dollars when it made the BCS.  It did so three times under that contract, so the Irish made out like bandits.  But that deal was changed, and now Notre Dame will make around $4.5 million per BCS bowl, the same that Boise State and TCU will make this year for their appearance in the Fiesta

Economically, it no longer makes sense for Notre Dame to say no to the Big Ten.  It’s actually costing them money in the television and bowl revenue genres.

As for licensing, the Irish are probably better off by themselves, but I am only assuming that as I could not find concrete data on that front.

After the 2007-2008 sports year, Notre Dame’s athletic department took in just over $83,000,000 in revenues.  That was #14 in the nation, and that is probably as strong as they are going to be.  Guess who was nipping at their heels with a fraction of the history and tradition of the Fighting Irish?

The Iowa Hawkeyes, at just over $81,000,000….and rising, thanks to the Big Ten and the Big Ten Network.

Six of the Top 20 were Big Ten schools, as were 8 of the top 30.

As far as I can tell now, the only reason Notre Dame would want to remain an independent is simply to remain an independent and keep that identity.  There is no doubt that former Independents like Penn State and Florida State have taken identity hits since joining a conference.  But Penn State is getting paid.

Add in the revenues that a Big Ten Football Championship Game would pay out to each school (probably another $2 million, at least, per school) and we have ended the financial objection.

In my opinion, the Big Ten, when it gets around to seriously considering expansion, should extend another invitation to Notre Dame.  While Notre Dame does less for the Big Ten this time around than it did a decade ago, it can still add value to the league and BTN.  The Big Ten does far more for Notre Dame, however.

Which is why the Big Ten should also issue an ultimatum; join us. If you don’t, that’s fine, but our schools will no longer play you in football.

Some may scoff at that notion, but we are talking about a lot of history here between Notre Dame and Michigan, Michigan State and Purdue.  The Irish also have a history with Penn State and will begin playing Wisconsin in the future as well.

The Big Ten doesn’t need to let the Irish make money off of it’s fan bases with regards to TV viewers.  There is a reason why the Big Ten has landed two teams in the BCS for nine of its 12 years.  There is a reason why it has the only network of any conference in America.

That reason is eyeballs.

There are more television viewers in the Big Ten footprint than in any other conference.  That’s a fact.  Notre Dame gets to cherry pick that.  No more, I say.

Rutgers: They are a land grand and research institution, and they would also open up a huge television market and give it a Big Ten identity.  Plus, the once moribund football program has come to life.  This is the team that I have felt would be the next best fit, if not Notre Dame, since about 2001.

Missouri: Another land grant school, and they would offer the Kansas City and St. Louis television markets, a natural fit for the Big Ten.  As my friend Steve Deace pointed out, it would also be a crippling blow to the Big 12, as you take away their biggest TV draw outside of the state of Texas.  Plus, the league has not been able to do them any favors in each of the last three years as it relates to the bowl selection process.  They had one loss, in the Big 12 title game to Oklahoma two years ago, and were passed over by a two-loss Kansas team who they had beaten in the regular season finale, for an Orange Bowl bid.  They were passed over last year and went to the Alamo and they were passed over this year by a 6-6 Iowa State team for the Insight, a team they beat; Missouri had an 8-4 record this year.  They also have a basketball program that would be a great fit, plus they have a wrestling program.

Pittsburgh and Syracuse:  I don’t think either one of these teams are a fit, because they don’t open up a new television market.

Deace and I agree that the Big Ten would not make the same mistake the Big 12 made with regards to breaking up historical rivalries.  Michigan and Ohio State would play in the same division, keeping the best rivalry in the sport intact, and also meaning they would play just once per year.  Perhaps that would be an annual game for the right to play in the Big Ten title game, or at least history would trend that way.

Here is how the division might work:

Division A

Michigan
Ohio State
Michigan State
Indiana
Purdue
Northwestern or Illinois

Division B

Iowa
Penn State
Wisconsin
Minnesota
NEW TEAM
Northwestern or Illinois

You would play the five teams in your division each year. Deace suggests that you are allowed to keep one rivalry from the other division, then play two teams from the other division over a two year span (home and home) and go to two more teams the next two years, then the one team you didn’t play after four years would come on the schedule with one of the other four teams you had played the previous four years, and start the process over.

This makes a lot of sense, and it will make the Big Ten, and it’s newest member, a lot more money.

-Jon Miller

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