Penn State - Iowa Preview/Prediction

storminspank · 02-04-2012, 12:13 PM

By Justin VanLaere
Carver-Hawkeye Arena will be filled with Hawkeye legends, future Hawkeye stars, and hopefully a capacity Hawkeye crowd. While Iowa entertains Penn State in men’s basketball today, other events will be just as exciting for some old school fans. A large number of players from the 1987 Final Four team will be in attendance, and Dr. Tom will be there as well. Additionally, Iowa will wear throwback gold jerseys for this game. For anyone growing up with Hawkeye Basketball in the 80′s, this will be a dream day instead Carver.
Game Info

Iowa Hawkeyes (12-11; 4-6) vs Penn State (10-13; 2-8)
POMEROY RATINGS: Iowa – 100, Penn State – 128
REALTIMERPI: Iowa – 121, Penn State – 143
CBS RPI: Iowa – 119, Penn State – 132
MASSEY RANKING: Iowa – 109, Penn State – 135
Tip Off: Saturday, February 4th, 2012; 2:05 PM CST
Iowa City, IA; Carver-Hawkeye Arena, 15,400
TV: ESPNU, ESPN3.com
Radio: AM 600, 1040, and 800. Sirius: 92 | XM: 191
Iowa leads 22-12 in the all-time series.
LINE: Iowa is a 6.5 point favorite at home. Pomeroy predicts a 7 point Iowa win.
LIVE CHAT: Click HERE for the Link
Projected Starters

IOWA
G – Devyn Marble, 6’6”, 194 lb, SO
G – Matt Gatens, 6’5”, 212 lb, SR
G – Bryce Cartwright, 6’1”, 188 lb, SR
F – Aaron White, 6’8”, 225 lb, FR
F – Zach McCabe, 6’7”, 232 lb, SO

PENN STATE

G – Tim Frazier, 6’1″,170 lb, JR
G – Matt Glover, 6’4″, 210 lb, SO
G – Jermaine Marshall, 6’4″, 200 lb, SO
G – Cammeron Woodyard, 6’5″, 210 lb, SR
F – Jon Graham, 6’8″, 240 lb, FR

STATS COMPARISON:

Points Per Game – Iowa 74, PSU 61.7
FG % – Iowa 45.2, PSU 38.2
Points per Poss: – Iowa, 1.06, PSU 0.96
eFG% – Iowa 48.8, PSU 43.9
Opp eFG% – Iowa 49.5, PSU 50.8
2 pt% – Iowa 48.7, PSU 42.7
3 pt% – Iowa 34.8, PSU 30.6
Opp 2 pt %: Iowa 51.6, PSU 47.5
Opp 3 pt% – Iowa 34.6, PSU 36.6
FT% – Iowa 71.5, PSU 66.8
Offensive Turnover% – Iowa 17.7, PSU 19.6
Defensive Turnover% – Iowa 20.9, PSU 22.2
Offensive Reb% – Iowa 33.0, PSU 36.2
Offensive Steal% – Iowa 7.6, PSU 8.5

Here’s a look at a graphical comparison of the teams from statsheet.com

Iowa has 10 games with 10 steals or more, that’s best in the B1G and 5th best in the nation.
Penn State has yet to win on the road in conference, and has just one win on the road this year.
In conf play only – Iowa is the worst in the B1G in defensive efficiency, allowing offensive rebounds, and giving up 2 point FGs. The Hawkeyes are in the middle of the B1G in nearly every offensive category. Penn State is the worst in the B1G in eFG%, 3 pt%, 2 pt%, and offensive block%. They are also have the worst defensive eFG% in B1G play, as well.

Dev Marble sporting the throwback jerseys the Hawkeyes will be wearing today. Photo courtesy of Hawkeyesports.com

KEYS TO GAME FOR IOWA:
- Wear Out Tim Frazier. When a guy leads your team in points, rebounds, assists, everything… there’s a good chance he’s the reason you win/lose basketball games. Frazier is a guy that does a fantastic job of setting up his teammates, while getting his points when he can. Iowa will likely switch up on Frazier when they are in man to man. Tim is a smart guy, both academically and on the court, so he won’t be confused by much of what the Hawks throw at him.
- Rebound. Iowa averages 3.5 more boards in their 4 B1G wins and have been on the bad side of the boards (7.7 on average) in their losses. The Hawkeyes haven’t been the greatest rebounding team this year, esp considering Melsahn Basabe is leading the team with just 5.2 rebounds a game. Iowa will have a considerable height advantage in this one and should win the board battle by 8+ today. PSU got 12 offensive rebounds vs Wisconsin last time out – they’ll likely get that many this game.
- Mix up the D/Press. Penn State is not a very good offensive team. They have a low PPP and a poor eFG%. Glover, specifically has not been very effective from the floor – so with that in mind, expect him to go 6-8 from 3 pt land against Iowa. It just happens, right? But in all seriousness, the Nittany Lions aren’t going to beat the Hawkeyes by putting up hug offensive numbers, they aren’t very capable of doing that. Iowa will come out in M2M D and then sprinkle in the zone to make PSU hit a few shots from the outside. Coach McCaffery will throw in the occasional press to keep them honest.
PREDICTION: Remember the feelings going into the Nebraska game? A bad shooting, low scoring team coming into C-HA. It feels the same, except I think the results end up different. The signs all point to an Iowa victory. The Nittany Lions have lost 6 out of 7 games, I see that trend continuing. Iowa wins bigger than expected. FINAL SCORE: Iowa 76, Penn State 62