First Glance Predictions for 12-13?

[SteveGarvey]

11-2 OOC
11-7 B1G

22-9 Overall

4 seed in the B1G Tourney and win one.

23-10 heading into the NCAA Tourney as a 6 seed.

This seems like the same kind of prediction in football that says "we're gonna win 10-11 games this year."

[Section136]

This seems like the same kind of prediction in football that says "we're gonna win 10-11 games this year."

How so? I gave an exact number of wins for out of conference and B1G games, not a range of a couple games.

Winning 10 or 11 games in football is 83%-92% of the games. If I predicted a basketball season on par with that I would have predicted 26-29 wins.

I dont understand your comparison, please explain.

[Hawkfromnorwalk]

Dont understand your reasoning in regards to our B1G record. We play the same teams as we did this year. We get Illinois and MSU at home and travel to OSU and Michigan. We play every other team home and away.

I just think that the loss of Gatens will hurt us enough that we won't produce as well in the B1G portion. I think that we do better in the non-con just because I don't foresee us losing to another Campbell type team and we don't have Creighton. UNI/Drake should be easier because they will be played at Wells now and we have a shot against ISU because it's at carver. Gatens was a big reason we won some of those B1G games, and until I see someone who can consistently step up and fill that void, I'm going to stick with my expectations.

Trust me, I would love to see a better outcome, and Fran so far has exceeded expectations, but I am setting my expectations there and everything better than that is gravy.

[DuffMan]

Dude, go join another forum. This team will win 28 games minimum and probably over 30 BEFORE the tournament. Final Four and then it will be a gamble if we get a national title. Will need some help to knock out one or two of the big boys.

Do you think you are funny, witty, or original? Seriously, I have no idea why you post this moronic garbage in every forum available to you. The OP posed a legit quesion and you respond with your canned stupid response. It's guys like you that ruin these forums for everyone, but as long as you amuse yourself right.....

lighten up Francis.

[1977Hawkeye]

Oh, so an optimistic assessment that we will win 28-30 games is ruining the forums for everyone, huh? Here's a newsflash, a bunch of Hawk killers (Sullinger, Green, Shurna, Hummel, Taylor, etc.) are either graduating or are likely to leave the B10. Iowa is also likely to get better and won't drop games to teams like Campbell, Clemson, Northwestern, Nebraska, Penn State, etc. Based on how this team played at the end of the season, 3 wins in the BTT is also a strong possibility. We will not lose the games we shouldn't lose and we will also have even more success against the top teams in the conference. It's gonna be a big season and sorry if I can't be as negative as you would like.

I would put down a wager with any person who thinks Iowa will win 28+ games next year. 20 wins is a more likely outcome.

That said, any post by OK4P is hard for me to take seriously.

[RocknRollface]

I think you are dead wrong here, first of all there is nobody on the team that is anywhere near as good of a defender as he is period and second of all nobody has really shown they can shoot like he can from the outside consistently.

True but Gatens was an average on ball defender defender and a very good off ball defender on a team of awful perimeter defenders overall.

He is not what you think of as being a lock down defender though, someone who can pressure the ball 90 feet.

All three freshman guards will be better on ball defenders, and likely so will Marble, off ball they may not be as good though.

[RocknRollface]

"Gatens really isn't that big of a loss. He had six or so games this season in a row where he was really good, other than that he has been average."

Clearly a person who has not a clue about the game of basketball.

Are you sure you coming to that conclusion based on logic and not emotion?

By saying he was average I don't mean he was a poor player by any means, but his level of play on the year was no where near where it was on his hot streak.

Thats a plainly obvious truth, except it or not.

[RocknRollface]

Wow you are one clueless person if you think that is true...

Nope just being realistic.

[RocknRollface]

There's a reason Devyn had so many wide-open looks against Oregon and our post players were unstoppable against Dayton. After Gatens' run teams went all-out to stop him. That left huge passing lanes open in the Dayton game and sagging defense against Marble in the Oregon game. You don't replace that overnight.

My guess is that we're legitimately on the bubble for NCAAs next year. In or out, who knows. I will say that having a high seed (1 or 2), hosting a couple of games, and making a deep run in the NIT (getting to the Garden) wouldn't bother me at all. That tournament is turning out to be pretty damn cool.

To start the game Oregon was not paying attention to Marble on the perimeter, and why would they, he had only hit 15 3s on the year.

After adjusting Oregon stopped leaving him open for the most part and still kept the other shooter in check too.

[RocknRollface]

This is very dumb.

A lot of our other guys got some pretty wide open looks because of the attention Gatens received from the other teams defense. Just because Gatens didnt put up a ton of points in the last few games doesnt mean he had no effect on the game.

He also received a ton of pressure at the end of the big ten season and made his open looks. Im not saying he won't be a loss but one that should be expected to be overcome.

He had plenty of shot attempts against Oregon that he was making against better defensive teams at the end of the b10 season. The fact is he just missed allot of shots, which other than that February steak was kind of the norm.

[CWooD4]

Another "aggressive bid" to the NIT, IMO.

[Cover3]

If players reach this numbers. they score 82 points every game. that make them best offense in basketball.

I have to agree with BumpThaBurrito. Those figures were a little gaudy for proposed averages. As another poster mentioned, we'll get dragged into some slow down games. Averaging 82 per, plus having a backup PG average 5 assists is a little out there. Not to the point of being ridiculous, though.

[SteveGarvey]

How so? I gave an exact number of wins for out of conference and B1G games, not a range of a couple games.

Winning 10 or 11 games in football is 83%-92% of the games. If I predicted a basketball season on par with that I would have predicted 26-29 wins.

I dont understand your comparison, please explain.

It wasn't meant to be an exact, identical comparison but a general one. No way we finish 4th in the B1G next year and garner a 6 seed in the NCAAs. Not considering where we've come from, losing Gatens, etc.

[Section136]

It wasn't meant to be an exact, identical comparison but a general one. No way we finish 4th in the B1G next year and garner a 6 seed in the NCAAs. Not considering where we've come from, losing Gatens, etc.

Well thats how I see it playing out. Not as crazy as you make it sound as we shouldnt be losing to teams like Campbell or Clemson next year and Im hoping for a better B1G record based on the fact that we will have one of the weaker conference schedules again next year.

When do we get to read Garvey's prediction?

[SteveGarvey]

Well thats how I see it playing out. Not as crazy as you make it sound as we shouldnt be losing to teams like Campbell or Clemson next year and Im hoping for a better B1G record based on the fact that we will have one of the weaker conference schedules again next year.

When do we get to read Garvey's prediction?

Oh I think we can be an NCAA bubble team. I think that's realistic. Hope you're right though-I'd be glad to eat crow.