NCAA Tournament for Iowa in 2013?

[WestCoastHawk]

I don't care what you guys say. If Iowa doesn't make the NCAA tournament this year I am going to bed extremely disappointed. We have all the pieces, and a great general.

[StatelineHawk]

I'm with Miller on this one. Before I even read the full post I was thinking about 30% chance. I think part of my reason for 30% is just trying to temper my own enthusiasm so that I don't get too pished off if they don't make it. It's good to feel excited about the basketball team again, but I also realize they are still in rebuilding mode, even with the promising freshmen.

I pretty much agree. Would love to be placed in KC. (Actually would be happy to go anywhere just to be in tourney)

[ssckelley]

I think people are not giving enough credit to the impact of upgrading from Cartwright to Gesell. Ya'll might say "well, he's a freshman, blah, blah." Even as a freshman, he is a huge upgrade.

I agree, if you compare this years team to last years team you have to think this years team is more talented. You lose Archie, Gatens, Brommer, and Cartwright but you replace them with Gesell, Meyer, Woodbury, Clemmons, and Ingram. You also have to expect improvements from players like White, Marble, and Oglesby.

If Iowa would have taken care of the non conference last year they would of at least been a bubble team. We are all hoping they improve on that this year.

[DodgerHawki]

Fran is not the first coach in the Big Ten to want to play fast...and Wisconsin has been controlling tempo for much of the Boy Ryan era.

it will be interesting to see if last year's games against Wisconsin (in terms of pace) were merely outliers or an indication that Fran is able to "speed Wisconsin up."

The two games Wisconsin played against Iowa were the 1 and 3 games in terms of number of possessions in a game the Badgers played all season. The first game in Madison had 68 possessions, the second in Iowa City had 63. Badgers had a non-con game against Mississippi Valley State with 68 possessions. I could have missed another game, someone can correct me if I'm wrong.

Even North Carolina, playing in North Carolina, couldn't speed up the Badgers. And Roy Williams loves to play fast. UNC and Wisky played a 58 possession game (Tar Heels won). None of the Badgers other B1G games approached the 68 possession game when Iowa won in Madison.

Even in 2010-11, when Iowa and Wisky played OT in Iowa City, that game had just 56 possessions. So either Fran figured something out in getting Wisky to go a bit faster, or Badgers were just uncharacteristically rushed. Only thing I can remember from the two games in 2011-12 related to pace is that Iowa got more transition baskets in those 2 games against Wisconsin than probably the previous 10 years combined (even off made baskets) and that Wisconsin took more early 3's in the shot clock than usual. Iowa also had an actual sizable lead down the stretch in Madison, forcing Wisky to foul and increase the number of possessions a bit more than normal.

Badgers are not easily moved out of their comfort zone, so we'll see if this is something that continues or just a blip.

[storminspank]

40% chance.

An absolutely MUST is to not stumble in the non-conf. Their schedule is too weak to allow for it.

If Iowa can get to that 10 win plateau in conf and get through the non-conf relatively unscathed, they'll like get in.

[storminspank]

And to clarify, there are still 3 games that haven't been announced for Iowa, so perhaps Barta goes out and lands a few big name games. We haven't seen anything that hints at that, though. Esp considering they will be all home games for Iowa.

As far I know, here are the non-conf games set -
Iowa State
UNI
Virginia Tech
Central Michigan (and Keno Davis)
Coppin State
Norfolk State
Howard
Gardner-Webb
Cancun tourney - Two of these teams: Western Kentucky, DePaul or Wichita State.

So, again, weak schedule. Can't Campbell this one.

[jacknicholson]

A sweep of Minnesota and Wisconsin is highly unlikely. but we need to win at home and sweep at least Nebraska and Penn State, perhaps Purdue.....

If we had beaten NW at the end of last season, we had a very good chance of making the tournament especially after beating Illinois in the B1G tournament, at least that was the talk making the rounds.....

If, a mighty big If, we go undefeated pre-conference, and break even in the Big Ten we will go to the NCAA tournament.....

Another disastrous pre-conference record will certainly diminish our prospects of playing in the NCAA tournament, however I seriously doubt that will happen this season.....

We will need quality wins in the Big Ten however. I do believe we will beat Michigan State at Carver along with Indiana and Wisconsin. They would qualify as quality wins.....

We almost made it last season, came close, a basket or two here or there and we would have won a couple more games. Perhaps we make those baskets this year....

I will go on record saying that we make the NIT no matter what.....

[jacknicholson]

it will be interesting to see if last year's games against Wisconsin (in terms of pace) were merely outliers or an indication that Fran is able to "speed Wisconsin up."

The two games Wisconsin played against Iowa were the 1 and 3 games in terms of number of possessions in a game the Badgers played all season. The first game in Madison had 68 possessions, the second in Iowa City had 63. Badgers had a non-con game against Mississippi Valley State with 68 possessions. I could have missed another game, someone can correct me if I'm wrong.

Even North Carolina, playing in North Carolina, couldn't speed up the Badgers. And Roy Williams loves to play fast. UNC and Wisky played a 58 possession game (Tar Heels won). None of the Badgers other B1G games approached the 68 possession game when Iowa won in Madison.

Even in 2010-11, when Iowa and Wisky played OT in Iowa City, that game had just 56 possessions. So either Fran figured something out in getting Wisky to go a bit faster, or Badgers were just uncharacteristically rushed. Only thing I can remember from the two games in 2011-12 related to pace is that Iowa got more transition baskets in those 2 games against Wisconsin than probably the previous 10 years combined (even off made baskets) and that Wisconsin took more early 3's in the shot clock than usual. Iowa also had an actual sizable lead down the stretch in Madison, forcing Wisky to foul and increase the number of possessions a bit more than normal.

Badgers are not easily moved out of their comfort zone, so we'll see if this is something that continues or just a blip.

Very interesting post, food for thought.....

Good work, Dodger....

[jacknicholson]

I don't care what you guys say. If Iowa doesn't make the NCAA tournament this year I am going to bed extremely disappointed. We have all the pieces, and a great general.

I am finding it difficult to argue with this, WestCoast.....

[Firehawk11]

65 percent

1) Two incoming freshman upgrade at two positions. This years team is deep enough Fran does not have to depend on the our freshman to lead the team.

2) Woodbury will not be a great shot blocker. What he will do for us is take up space. He is a immediate upgrade over Brommer. Not saying Adam will be a great defender initially he doesn't have to be. He is only going to face a couple stud centers.

3) Basabe will have a great year. he started playing better at end of year. I don't think so. Emergence of white McCabe freed mel up late in the year.

[Hooper]

I try to keep in mind that we played most of last year without an effective/healthy starting pg and pf. (Cartwright and Basabe). What Fran accomplished was a magic act. When those two returned somewhat to form you saw how salty we were and it was (barely) enough to sneak us a spot in the NIT. We beat a very potent Dayton squad and looked pretty good doing it. I think Fran is really really good. I think he has more weapons this year, including a pretty decent freshman pg. I say we dance.

[1977Hawkeye]

I'm not sure what to think, but I'd say about 40%. The majority of the team is coming back, which is a good thing. Unfortunately, we lost Gatens and Cartwright, so we're still going to be really young and unproven at the PG position. But Marble could probably play a little point as needed, though.

The front court, I think we'll be in pretty good shape there.

If you were to put a gun to my head and force me to predict, I'd say NIT again this year, but I expect this year's team to be at least as good as last year's team, and being a bubble team is not a reach at all IMO. I wouldn't be too shocked if the team over-achieves a bit and sneaks into the NCAA's as a lower seed.

Get back to me in December, though. We'll all have a much better feel for this year's team by then.

[pmchawk]

Fran is not the first coach in the Big Ten to want to play fast...and Wisconsin has been controlling tempo for much of the Boy Ryan era.

How many really try to push the pace against Wisconsin? Don't most go to a half court offense and try to beat them at their own game?
How many of the coaches that claim to want to play fast say we aren't playing fast enough now? I'm guessing not many.
Doesn't it seem Wisconsin only loses when the other team doesn't play at Wisconsin's pace?
Didn't Wisconsin's rise start when B1G teams switched to become more methodical (set the offense)? I remember teams running in the B1G 15 years ago. Maybe it is just a selective memory.

To me it is easier to score if the D isn't ready rather then your offense being set.

[goldenhawk96]

The Wisky games are great examples, IMO, of the mental aspect of the game. The at Wisky being the best example: We were ready to execute the gameplan. Hence, Jumping out to a quick lead, pushing off of misses etc.
On the other hand, Wisky felt like they were in for a cakewalk. They were lazy in transition and "quick shot" the ball. They made zero effort to exploit their huge interior advantage; they showed zero concentration by missing 3 after 3.
Anyone who has ever coached knows how games go when " your team isn't ready."
I think we will have Wisky's full attention next year; they will try to pound us inside and slow it down, and they probably will do it much more effectively than last year.
But, that still doesn't mean they will beat us ( see OT game from Fran Y1).

[JHHawk]

And to clarify, there are still 3 games that haven't been announced for Iowa, so perhaps Barta goes out and lands a few big name games. We haven't seen anything that hints at that, though. Esp considering they will be all home games for Iowa.

As far I know, here are the non-conf games set -
Iowa State
UNI
Virginia Tech
Central Michigan (and Keno Davis)
Coppin State
Norfolk State
Howard
Gardner-Webb
Cancun tourney - Two of these teams: Western Kentucky, DePaul or Wichita State.

So, again, weak schedule. Can't Campbell this one.

ISU,Western Ky,WSU and Norfolk St all made the NCAA tourny last year.
Coppin,Va Tech and UNI made the NIT.

This is a much better schedule than last year.
Not as many bottom feeders either.