tm3308

Blog entry from September analyzing Arizona quarterback Nick Foles.
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Jon has strongly stood by his belief that Arizona QB Nick Foles is the best pure passer the Hawks will see in 2010. There has hardly been a consensus on that notion. Many posters feel that the Hawks will see several better passers, or more dangerous quarterbacks. However, many of those detractors fail to see the distinction that Jon makes: yes, Terrelle Pryor is a more dangerous QB because of his athleticism. However, Pryor is not as proficient as a passer. A few posters who use some statistics point toward passer efficiency ratings, and the fact that Foles had 10 Big Ten quarterbacks finish ahead of him in that department in 2009. But, the purpose of this post is to break down that assumption that passer efficiency rating tells the whole story.

2009 Passer Efficiency Ratings (BT vs. Foles)
1. Scott Tolzien, Wisconsin (142.99)
2. Darryl Clark, Penn State (142.64)
3. Kirk Cousins, Michigan State (142.63)
4. Ricky Stanzi, Iowa (131.62)
5. Joey Elliot, Purdue (131.13)
6. Juice Williams, Illinois (129. 38)
7. Mike Kafka, Northwestern (129.25)
8. Terrelle Pryor, Ohio State (128.91)
9. Tate Forcier, Michigan (128.15)
10. Ben Chappell, Indiana (126.44)
11. Nick Foles, Arizona (125.56)
12. Adam Weber, Minnesota (114.66)

Yards per pass completion
1. Stanzi (14.13 ypc)
2. Cousins (13.54 ypc)
3. Weber (13.52 ypc)
4. Clark (12.94 ypc)
5. Tolzien (12.82 ypc)
6. Pryor (12.54 ypc)
7. Williams (12.46 ypc)
8. Forcier (12.42 ypc)
9. Elliot (11.33 ypc)
10. Chappell (10.97 ypc)
11. Kafka (10.75 ypc)
12. Foles (9.56 ypc)

Yards per pass attempt (BT vs. Foles)
1. Tolzien (8.25 ypa)
2. Cousins (8.17 ypa)
3. Stanzi (7.95 ypa)
4. Clark (7.88 ypa)
5. Forcier (7.30 ypa)
6. Williams (7.19 ypa)
7. Pryor (7.10 ypa)
8. Weber (7.04 ypa)
9. Elliot (6.99 ypa)
10. Kafka (6.97 ypa)
11. Chappell (6.87 ypa)
12. Foles (6.04 ypa)

Completion percentage (BT vs. Foles)
1. Kafka (64.84%)
2. Tolzien (64.33%)
3. Foles (63.57%)
4. Chappell (62.62%)
5. Elliot (61.66%)
6. Clark (60.89%)
7. Cousins (60.37%)
8. Forcier (58.72%)
9. Williams (57.71%)
10. Pryor (56.61%)
11. Stanzi (56.25%)
12. Weber (52.04%)

Ask yourself a question: which three QB's (outside of UNI's Pat Grace) has had the most success against the Hawks' defense? Kafka, Chappell, and Foles. None finished higher than #7 in passer efficiency rating (Kafka); they were the bottom three in both yards per pass attempt and yards per completion; they were all in the top four in completion percentage.

Remember, yards per pass attempt is one of several factors included in the passer efficiency rating formula. If your YPA is low, then your efficiency will suffer for it. That makes it quite easy for passer efficiency ratings to be skewed when determining the best passers.

What is something that Arizona, Northwestern, and Indiana's offenses have in common? They focus their passing games around the short, dink and dunk passes that our defense can be exploited with. That will undboutedly lower a QB's YPA and YPC.

So, Foles, Chappell, and Kafka all run/ran a lot of quick hitters, and excelled at executing those kinds of plays. The big play QB's such as Tolzien, Cousins, and Clark did not fare so well against the Hawks. They are/were either too impatient to take those underneath routes, or were unable to execute those plays as well as Foles, Chappell, and Kafka.

There may be more "dangerous" QB's in the Big Ten, but Chappell is the only one back from last year that plays a similar game. Persa may be another Kafka (I'll reserve judgement until I see him against a few Big Ten defenses), but other than that, there are more big-play QB's in the Big Ten than those who execute the quick-hitters, which is how you beat the Hawks. Given Foles clutch perforance against the Hawks last September (as well as superior arm strength), I give him an edge over Chappell. Therefore, I wholeheartedly agree with Jon that Foles is the best pure passer the Hawks will face in 2010.

*All statistics courtesy of the NCAA