Looking under the surface of Big 10 Division Alignment

After watching the Big 10 Division alignment special, I got to thinking. Which team benefitted the most from the alignment and who has the most right to complain. As an Iowa fan I am happy with how the conference divisions have been laid out. As much as I love the ambience of the games against OSU, frankly we just don’t do well against them. As someone else mentioned, although we have a historically worse record against Michigan, I always feel like we match up better with them. Based on recent history, that has held true. Even though we have lost more frequently to Michigan, those games have been fairly competitive and, dare I say, even.

I have read on the message boards where Wisconsin is complaining that they were not given a favorable draw in the divisions. What I am about to show will completely debunk this notion. I did some research, and based on the same criteria/time frame that the conference used (since 1993 when the Big Ten expanded last); Wisconsin has no reason to gripe. In all actuality, Minnesota is the one that should be yelling the loudest.

I first looked at the 17 year period from an overall standings perspective. Granted, Nebraska’s numbers are going to be skewed, there is nothing that can be done about it. When you look at these stats, the team rankings would unfold like this, based on how the divisions are now setup.


Division X

Overall rank Team Name Win %
1 Ohio State .794
3 Penn State .703
5 Wisconsin .678
7 Purdue .512
11 Illinois .381
12 Indiana .354
Total win percentage .570

Division O
Overall rank Team Name Win %
2 Nebraska .760
4 Michigan .695
6 Iowa .578
8 Michigan State .493
9 Northwestern .478
10 Minnesota .453
Total win percentage .576

The Win percentages of each division show the competitive balance that Commissioner Delaney stressed. The O division, on paper, appears to have a slight edge in overall “toughness”. I also find it interesting that the top 8 teams are equally separated. When it came to the bottom 4, it would appear, that since Division X has 2 of the top 3 teams, they would be blessed with the bottom 2 overall to balance things out. I have no problem with this at all.

Now I based my scheduling rankings from above. I took the overall win percentage of the 6 permanent opponents (5 intra division opponents + 1 cross over protected rival) for each team, and came up with an average win % of opponents’ for each team. The chart below is who has the toughest schedule based on overall win percentage. The chart lists team from weakest schedule to toughest.

Team Opp. Win %
12 Wisconsin .533
11 Michigan State .553
10 Ohio State .554
9 Northwestern .560
8 Iowa .565
7 Nebraska .567
6 Penn State .580
5 Purdue .581
4 Illinois .587
3 Michigan .593
2 Indiana .594
1 Minnesota .614

Look who sits on top of this list. Wisconsin plays, arguably, the weakest permanent group of opponents of any Big 10 team. I am not seeing a reason to complain if I am Wisconsin here. Now Minnesota on the other hand, they have reason to complain.

Now let’s look at the divisions based strictly on conference record over the 17 year time frame. Again, Nebraska’s results are basically comparing apples to oranges, but that is to be expected at this juncture.

Division X

Overall rank Team Name Win %
1 Ohio State .779
4 Penn State .632
5 Wisconsin .581
7 Purdue .463
10 Illinois .331
12 Indiana .243
Total win percentage .505

Division O
Overall rank Team Name Win %
2 Nebraska .733
3 Michigan .691
6 Iowa .522
8 Michigan State .463
9 Northwestern .431
11 Minnesota .324
Total win percentage .527

Notice now that when you look solely at Conference win percentage, Michigan moves ahead of Penn State, and Illinois moves ahead of Minnesota. Still the competitive balance is there, although the “O” division would appear even a little tougher than before. This is all brought about by Indiana’s horrible conference run since Penn State joined the league.

This next chart shows the strength of schedule based on Conference games only. I added Win % column to this list. This win % is the teams overall Conference win % for the past 17 years.

Team Win % Opp. Win %
12 Wisconsin .581 .462
11 Ohio State .779 .490
10 Michigan State .463 .491
9 Nebraska .733 .511
8 Northwestern .431 .511
7 Purdue .463 .515
6 Iowa .522 .518
5 Penn State .632 .522
4 Illinois .331 .522
3 Michigan .691 .542
2 Indiana .243 .542
1 Minnesota .324 .570

Interestingly enough, Wisconsin still has the weakest schedule, and Minnesota has the toughest. A few of the middle ranked teams have switched places, but overall not a lot of differences.

My point in all of this is that when a Wisconsin fan comes up to you and complains that they were not given a favorable division, you can tell them the facts as they are. I guess I could have figured this all up and switched Iowa and Wisconsin around to see what would happen, but thanks to Commissioner Delaney and the other university presidents, it is not necessary. If anyone wants the spreadsheet of my data used in this blog, feel free to contact me at briankid2@hotmail.com