[ColumbusHawk]

Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott against expanding league - NCAA Football - SI.com

[big10fan]

just posturing IMO. if some big names came calling, they'd more than listen.

[TecmoSuperHawk]

Let's see, Larry Scott has made a dozen or more public comments in the last year that expansion is a good thing, consolidation of conferences makes sense and he obviously wanted 16 last June. These comments mean nothing. His president's don't want to expand and he is simply publicly relaying those sentiments. He, about more than anyone, wants a 16 team conference.

[eyekwah]

I listened to the interview and he did not rule out expanding. He basically reiterated that the conference is not actively wanting to expand. He admitted being contacted. I'm in the camp that thinks the Big 12 will be around in some form until probably 2014.

Conference Realignment Scenarios

Scenario I

A&M gets what it wants. Remaining 9 Big 12 members agree to equal revenue sharing, one new team is added, and the Big 12 lives on.

Chances 75/25

Scenario II

Oklahoma, Oklahoma State do not commit to staying because of unstable terms. However Texas, Tech, ISU, Mizzou, Kansas, Kansas State and Baylor remain in Big 12. The Big 12 adds 3 teams. The Okie's go west.

Chances 55/45


Scenario III

Big East, Big 12, and ACC form a coalition to preserve the BCS AQ status of all current members. If one of the current members; ie Missouri, West Virginia, or Clemson, moves to the SEC, rather than raid each other they look for a non-AQ team to replace the one leaving. Or they arrange a interconference swap and then do an add. The Big 12 fills out to 10 teams.

Chances 50/50

Scenario IV

Somehow there are four slots in the Big East, either through a Big East team going to the SEC or ACC (if ACC loses team to SEC). The Big East invites four of the current Big 12 members to form a western division. Texas and Texas Tech join the Okies and go west. A&M gets the SEC. This leaves out just one current Big 12 member, probably Baylor, unless it can crowd out Iowa State, which it is posturing to do. That is why Baylor is desperate. ISU is a much more attractive alternative to Baylor.

Chances 70/30


One factor people miss is that the BCS contract/agreement expires after 2014. A Big 12 diluted of Oklahoma and Texas would probably not remain an BCS AQ conference after 2014. Conferences with more than 12 teams are unproven. It is why chances for the Big 12 surviving is some form outweigh some of the other scenarios.