It’s been almost a week and a half since Iowa’s last game, will they be rested or rusty?  We’ll find out tonight as the Hawkeyes meet the Cornhuskers for the first time ever in B1G play, and the first time since 1976.

Game Info

Iowa Hawkeyes (11-9; 3-4) vs Nebraska (10-9; 2-6)
POMEROY RATINGS: Iowa – 98, Nebraska – 131
REALTIMERPI: Iowa – 110, Nebraska – 103
CBS RPI: Iowa – 120, Nebraska – 98
MASSEY RANKING: Iowa – 95, Nebraska – 101
Tip Off: Wednesday, January 26th, 2012; 6:02 PM CST
Iowa City, IA; Carver-Hawkeye Arena, 15,400
TV: ESPN-U
Radio: AM 600, 1040, and 800.  Sirius: 92 | XM: 191
Iowa leads 12-7 in the all-time series.

LINE: Iowa is a 5 point favorite at home. Pomeroy predicts a 7 point Iowa win.

LIVE CHAT IS BACK – Click HERE for the Link!

Projected Starters

IOWA

G – Devyn Marble, 6’6”, 194 lb, SO

G – Matt Gatens, 6’5”, 212 lb, SR

G – Eric May, 6’5”, 217 lb, JR

F – Melsahn Basabe, 6’7”, 225 lb, SO

F – Zach McCabe, 6’7”, 232 lb, SO

NEBRASKA

G – Bo Spencer, 6’1″,196 lb, SR

G – Brandon Richardson, 6’0″, 190 lb,  SR

G  – Caleb Walker, 6’4″, 205 lb, SR

G/F – Toney McCray, 6’6″, 215 lb, SR

F – Brandon Ubel, 6’10″, 235 lb, JR

STATS COMPARISON:

• Points Per Game – Iowa 73.9, Neb 60.7
• FG % – Iowa 44.7, Neb 41.9
• Points per Poss: – Iowa, 1.05, Neb 0.96
• eFG% – Iowa 48.8, Neb 47.8
• Opp eFG% – Iowa 51.1, Neb 48.2
• 3 pt% – Iowa 34.3, Neb 31.7
• Opp 2 pt %: Iowa 51.1, Neb 47.8
• Opp 3 pt% – Iowa 34.1, Neb 32.7
• FT% – Iowa 72.2, Neb 75.0
• Offensive Turnover% – Iowa 17.8, Neb 22.4
• Defensive Turnover% – Iowa 21.0, Neb 20.6
• Offensive Reb% – Iowa 32.9, Neb 29.3

Here’s a look at a graphical comparison of the teams from statsheet.com

Nebraska and Iowa rank #1 and #2 respectively in regards to conference SOS.  Both have played an absolutely brutal schedule so far in the B1G, so it’s not surprising that both teams are sub .500 in conference at this in the season.

KEYS TO GAME FOR IOWA:

- The Rested and the Wary.   Iowa is coming back from nine days off, a well-rested crew.  On the contrary, Nebraska is now halfway done with their B1G schedule.  The Huskers haven’t had more than 4 days off in a row since the conference slate started.  They’ve had the busiest schedule in the conference (and the most difficult).  The Cornhuskers are an above average defensive team, but the main component of defense is effort.  I’m not sure the Huskers have the legs to play lockdown D against Iowa’s uptempo offense for an entire 40 minutes.  Iowa will go on some runs and that will be the deciding factor.

-  Up the Tempo.  Nebraska isn’t Bo Ryan slow, but they are slow.   The Badgers and Huskers combined to score 95 points up in the Kohl Center a few weeks ago.   If Iowa can get out on the break, they’ll be able to build a lead against an anemic Nebraska offense.  They aren’t a very good shooting team and they don’t get a lot of possessions (note their sub 1.0 point per possession stat).  They don’t get to the line at very good clip and they don’t shoot the long ball well.  If Iowa scores their season average, I don’t see how they lose this game.

- Stay Home on D.   If you’ve watched the Huskers, they run an odd style of motion offense.  It’s almost like a weave that they run side to side – a borderline 4 corners offense.  I would actually pick Todd Lickliter’s offense over Doc Sadler’s offense, as much as that pains me to say.  Iowa needs to stay home on the D end of the court and not overplay the cuts.  Be patient and make them work, but don’t wear yourself out, especially considering they turn the ball over so much.  I think 3-2  zone will work perfectly for Iowa.  Spencer is going to put up some numbers, but you can’t let guys like Richardson and McCray beat you.

PREDICTION:  If you’ve followed Nebraska Basketball under Doc Sadler, they are team that steals wins.  Texas knows about this all too well.  By that, I mean Nebraska isn’t an easy out.  I akin them to Northwestern, except the Cornhuskers have actually won a conference title and made it to the NCAA Tournament.  Iowa has to go into this game focused and cannot overlook the Huskers.  I think Iowa will be rested, not rusty.  I think Nebraska is ready for a break – they get a week off after this game.  The Huskers have been better since they have healed up, but they still aren’t a great team.  Expect the Hawkeyes to control the tempo of the game; I like Iowa in this one.  FINAL SCORE: Iowa 71,  Nebraska 61

Reflecting back on some of the past B1G games (and sort of CONVENIENTLY forgetting about the MSU and OSU debacles), the average basketball fan can see that Iowa’s defense has looked better than earlier in the year.  It was a defense that was prone to giving up mass quantities of treys and high percentage shots, as miscommunication and fundamentals lacked.  Jon touched on some improvement on D in his previous story, so let’s use some additional stats to try to backup the recent improvement in defense by the Hawkeyes.

Basketball geeks can agree that eFG% is more telling stat than FG or 3pt FG%.  With that in mind, let’s take a look at the current defensive eFG% of the B1G teams.  The first stat is their number for the year and national rank, the second is their number for conference only and their conference rank.
You have to keep in mind that Iowa has played the 2nd most difficult conf SOS so far this year, just behind Nebraska. Wisconsin, on the other hand, has the top eFG% in the nation (and conf), but they have played the easiest SOS in conf so far.

eFG% Defense
Wisconsin – Overall 38.2 (1), Conf Only 42.0 (1)
Michigan State – Overall 43.5 (24),  Conf Only 44.9 (2)
Ohio State – Overall 45.8 (66), Conf Only 45.9 (3)
Purdue – Overall 46.5 (85), Conf Only 50.4 (9)
Illinois – Overall 46.5 (86), Conf Only 49.6 (7)
Indiana – Overall 46.9 (100), Conf Only 54.9 (11)
Nebraska – Overall 47.4 (121), Conf Only 48.2 (5)
Minnesota – Overall 47.6 (128), Conf Only 48.8 (6)
Michigan – Overall 48.2 (156), Conf Only 50.2 (8)
Northwestern – Overall 48.4 (165), Conf Only 47.0 (4)
Penn State – Overall 51.2 (252), Conf Only 58.3 (12)
Iowa – Overall 51.4 (259), Conf Only 52.0 (10)

Ok then, there they are.  Just a bunch of numbers, right?   Yes.  But the thing you need to look at is the eFG% differences between overall and conference.  Generally, defensive eFG% will go up in conference.  Why?  Because you are playing better teams, teams that score more efficiently, and teams that are just plain better than those in your non-conference slate. (Keep in mind I am talking about the Power 6 conferences, not the MM or LM conferences.)  Looking at those stats, you can see most of the teams had a marked increase in conf-only eFG%.  For instance, PSU and Indiana leapt an astounding 7+% in their 6 conf games so far.  Most other teams increase anywhere from 2 to 4 percent.  The one anamoly is Northwestern, who actually lowered their defensive eFG% by 1.4%.  Why I am bringing this up?  Compare the teams from overall to non-conf… ok, don’t.   Let me do it for you.

eFG% Defense Differential (Overall vs. Conf through 6 games)
1. Northwestern -1.4
2. Ohio State +0.1
3. Iowa +0.6
4. Nebraska +0.8
5. Minnesota +1.2
6. Michigan State  +1.4
7. Michigan +2.0
8. Illinois +3.1
9. Wisconsin +3.8
10. Purdue +3.9
11. Penn State +7.1
12. Indiana +8.0

Also, a note… this isn’t non-conf vs. conf.  It’s overall vs. conf, meaning the conf games are blended into the overall, as well.
So what you are seeing from the Hawkeye angle is that Iowa is the third best B1G team in regards to improving their defense so far over the conference slate.  More impressive is the fact that they have done so playing one of the harder conference schedules, coupled in with the fact that they had two monster blowouts that absolutely demolished their eFG% defense.

The fact that a lot of teams are hoisting up and missing threes against Iowa in conference certainly helps their eFG%… I’ll admit that much.   There are times where you will see Iowa players collapse when they probably shouldn’t help.  But it’s hard not to feel like you are seeing an improved Iowa defense overall, and now you have some stats to back it up.

The Hawkeyes are coming off back-to-back blowout losses to two of the best teams in the conference and nation.  They look to right themselves today inside Carver-Hawkeye Arena against another Top 15 team in Michigan.

Game Info

Iowa Hawkeyes (10-8; 2-3) vs Michigan (14-3; 4-1)
POMEROY RATINGS: Iowa – 115, Michigan – 29
REALTIMERPI: Iowa – 117, Michigan – 14
CBS RPI: Iowa – 123, Michigan – 24
MASSEY RANKING: Iowa – 104, Michigan – 21
Tip Off: Saturday, January 14th, 2012; 12:01 PM CST
Iowa City, IA; Carver-Hawkeye Arena, 15,400
TV: BTN HD; BTN2GO.com
Radio: AM 600, 1040, and 800.  Sirius: 93 | XM: 191
Iowa trails 57-89  in the all-time series.

LINE: Iowa is a 3 point underdog at home. Pomeroy predicts a  4 point Iowa loss.

NO LIVE CHAT – visit the Iowa – Michigan Game Thread instead.  Also, follow Jon Miller (@Hawkeyenation) and myself (@storminspank) on Twitter during the game.

Projected Starters

IOWA

G – Devyn Marble, 6’6”, 194 lb, SO

G – Matt Gatens, 6’5”, 212 lb, SR

G – Eric May, 6’5”, 217 lb, JR

F – Melsahn Basabe, 6’7”, 225 lb, SO

F – Zach McCabe, 6’7”, 232 lb, SO

** – anticipate a change in the starting lineup, I expect Aaron White to move into a spot.

MICHIGAN

G – Trey Burke, 5’11″, FR

G – Tim Hardaway Jr., 6’6″, SO

G/F – Zack Novak, 6’4″, SR

F – Evan Smotrycz, 6’9″, SO

F – Jordan Morgan, 6’8″, SO

STATS COMPARISON:

• Points Per Game – Iowa 74.2, UM 69.9
• FG % – Iowa 44.6, UM 46.5
• Points per Poss: – Iowa, 1.05, UM 1.09
• eFG% – Iowa 48.6, UM 54.7 (#15 in nation)
• Opp eFG% – Iowa 51.7, UM 48.0
• 3 pt% – Iowa 33.6, UM 35.8
• Opp 2 pt %: Iowa 51.2, UM 44.6
• Opp 3 pt% – Iowa 35.2, UM 36.2
• FT% – Iowa 72.9, UM 69.1
• Offensive Turnover% – Iowa 17.9, UM 18.2
• Defensive Turnover% – Iowa 21.5, UM 21.1
• Offensive Reb% – Iowa 33.1, UM 32.1

Here’s a look at a graphical comparison of the teams from statsheet.com

Quick Hitters:

UM has not lost to an unranked team yet this year.
This is the only game between Iowa and Michigan during the regular season.

KEYS TO GAME FOR IOWA:

- The Long Ball.  Michigan is very good at shooting the three ball.   Smotrycz, Nowak, Douglass, Burke, Hardaway – they can all stroke it from the outside.  But as good as they are hitting from the outside, they are equally poor at defending it (ranking in the bottom 1/3 of the nation).  The three ball could be the deciding factor in the game.

-  Grab the Boards and Convert.  Iowa should win the battle on the boards.  UM doesn’t have a lot of height and their strategy isn’t to crash the boards either (rebounding out of the 1-3-1 is odd, too).  I fully expect Iowa to be 8-10+ on boards in the one.  The key will be if Iowa can actually do something with the ball once they get the extra possessions.

- Get UM Frantic.  The Wolverines are a really efficient ball club.  They shoot the ball well, they get points on a lot of their possessions, and they do pretty well at hanging onto the ball.  If the Hawks (and the crowd) can get the Wolverines out of their comfort zone, it will create opportunities for Iowa.

-  Devyn Marble has to be Better.    After really coming to life at the end of the non-conference action and into the very beginning of the B1G slate, Devyn has slid back a bit in his productivity.  He is forcing it a bit and not hitting his shots. He has more turnovers in his last three games than he did in the previous six combined.  He needs to the let the game come to him.  An early home game could help him get back on track.

- Attack on the Offensive Side of the Ball.   Michigan is going to likely come out in their 1-3-1 zone defense (unless something has drastically changed recently).  UM doesn’t create a lot of turnovers with the zone, but they make you pass/slash with intent.  Lazy passes and just dribbling around will play right into the Wolverines’ hand.

Here’s an example of UM’s D, in case you haven’t watched them in the past…

Iowa needs to be direct with what they want to do with the ball.  Also, getting out on the fast break will be very beneficial to the Hawks, as well.

PREDICTION:  Michigan is a legitimate Top 20 basketball team, but they aren’t on the same level as Ohio State and Michigan State.  I don’t expect things to get out of hand like they did in the previous few games for the Hawkeyes.  Before the season started, I saw this game as a loss, and that was assuming the Wolverines wouldn’t be a Top 25 team (a Morris-less team didn’t look promising).  That said, I like Iowa in this one.  Michigan hasn’t won on the road yet this season and almost lost at home to Northwestern last time out.  If the Hawks can contain Michigan’s stellar back court, they should be able squeak out a win.  The Wolverines are the better team right now, but I like the Hawkeyes at home.  FINAL SCORE: Iowa 71,  Michigan 68

The Iowa Hawkeyes (winners of five out their last six games) host one of the best team in the nation this afternoon inside Carver-Hawkeye Arena.  The #6 ranked Ohio State Buckeyes will face a confident Iowa team in front of one of the better crowds in recent memory.  This is the 150th time these two teams have played each other.  Iowa has lost six straight games to Ohio State.  The Buckeyes have an impressive streak of 56 consecutive wins over unranked teams.  The last time these two teams played, Iowa lead by 6 at half but couldn’t hold on, losing by 5.

Game Info

Iowa Hawkeyes (10-6; 2-1) vs Ohio State (14-2; 2-1)
POMEROY RATINGS: Iowa – 95, Ohio State – 1
REALTIMERPI: Iowa – 102, Ohio State– 4
CBS RPI: Iowa – 149, Ohio State- 11
MASSEY RANKING: Iowa – 109, Ohio State- 5
Tip Off: Saturday, January 7th, 2012; 2:06 PM CST
Iowa City, IA; Carver-Hawkeye Arena, 15,500
TV: BTN HD; BTN2GO.com
Radio: AM 600, 1040, and 800.
Iowa leads 75-74 in the all-time series.

LINE: Iowa is an 11.5 point underdog at home. Pomeroy predicts a 15 point Iowa loss.

NO LIVE CHAT – visit the Iowa – Ohio State Game Thread instead.  Also, follow Jon Miller (@Hawkeyenation) and myself (@storminspank) on Twitter during the game.

Projected Starters

IOWA

G – Devyn Marble, 6’6”, 194 lb, SO

G – Matt Gatens, 6’5”, 212 lb, SR

G – Eric May, 6’5”, 217 lb, JR

F – Melsahn Basabe, 6’7”, 225 lb, SO

F – Zach McCabe, 6’7”, 232 lb, SO

OHIO STATE

G – Aaron Craft, 6’2″, 190, SO

G – Lenzelle Smith, Jr, 6’4″, 205, SO

G – William Buford, 6’6″, 220, SR

F – Deshaun Thomas, 6’7″, 225, SO

F – Jared Sullinger, 6’9″, 265, SO

STATS COMPARISON:

• Points Per Game – Iowa 76.7, OSU 78.1
• FG % – Iowa 45.8, OSU 49.5
• Points per Poss: – Iowa, 1.09, OSU 1.14
• eFG% – Iowa 49.9, OSU 53.6
• Opp eFG% – Iowa 50.1, OSU 44.7
• 3 pt% – Iowa 34.3, OSU 32.2
• Opp 2 pt %: Iowa 50.2, OSU 44.1
• Opp 3 pt% – Iowa 33.3, OSU 30.7
• FT% – Iowa 73.6, OSU 68.4
• Offensive Turnover% – Iowa 16.6 (#12 in nation), OSU 16.9
• Defensive Turnover% – Iowa 21.6, OSU 26.7 (#7 in nation)
• Offensive Reb% – Iowa 33.2, OSU 22.2 (#1 in nation)
• Offensive Steal% – Iowa 6.3 (#2 in nation), OSU 6.4 (#3 in the nation)
• Offensive Block% – Iowa 6.3, OSU 5.3 (#2 in the nation)

Here’s a look at a graphical comparison of the teams from statsheet.com, the two teams are basically mirror images of each other in regards to stats…

IOWA’S BIG TEN TEAM STAT RANKINGS (through ALL games):

• Scoring – 3rd
• Scoring D – 12th
• Scoring Margin – 9th
• FT% – 2nd
• FG% – 6th
• Opp FG% – 12th
• 3 pt% – 6th
• 3 pt Made – 10th
• Opp 3 pt% – 5th
• Reb Margin – 9th
• Assists – 5th
• Steals – 3rd
• TO Margin – 5th
• A/TO Ratio – 5th
• OREB% – 8th
• DREB% – 7th

IOWA’S BIG TEN INDIVIDUAL STAT RANKINGS (through ALL games):

• Points – Gatens 16th, Marble 23rd
• Rebs – Basabe 9th
• FG% – Basabe 15th
• Assists -Cartwright 5th, Marble 9th
• FT% – Gatens 4th, Cartwright 5th,
• Steals – Marble 7th, Gatens 10th
• 3pt% – Oglesby 15th
• Blocks – Basabe 14th
• A/TO Ratio – Marble 2nd, Cartwright 5th
• OREB – McCabe 7th, White 11th
• DREB – Basabe 9th

KEYS TO GAME FOR IOWA:

- Continue the Terrific Perimeter D.  Whether it’s the increased communication, better rotation, or just pure luck – Iowa’s opponents have been shooting awful from behind the arc lately. Wisconsin shot 3-28 and Minnesota shot 4-23 from 3 point land.  Couple that with the fact that last time out Ohio State shot an ugly 2-17 from the outside, it’s possible that trend continues.  If it does, Iowa will be great position in this game.

-  Basabe vs. Sullinger.  The last time these two faced off, it was a real treat.  Mel and Sully went toe to toe, point for point, rebound for rebound.  Sullinger is one of the best players in the nation, if Basabe can duplicate his efforts from last year, it will take the pressure of Marble and Gatens to have to do too much.  Sullinger was in foul trouble in the loss to Indiana on the road, something like that can’t hurt Iowa if it happens today.

- Limit Mistakes and Execute.  No this isn’t a line from Kirk Ferentz, not verbatim at least.  There’s a reason Ohio State is ranked in the Top 10 and is a favorite to win the B1G.  They’re good – really good.  Iowa needs to be focused and needs to play mistake-free basketball, very similar to how they played on the road vs. Wisconsin.  They will need an effort like that to have a chance in the ballgame.  Empty Iowa possessions and allowing Ohio State 2nd chance points will severely handicap the Hawkeyes’ chances.

- Slash. Penetrate. Dish/Score.   If you watched the Ohio State – Indiana game, you saw the Hoosiers expose Ohio State’s defense.  Indiana was able to get into the lane, get the shots they wanted, get bunnies, etc…  That puts some focus toward Devyn Marble and Bryce Cartwright this afternoon – those two need to get into the lane and make OSU’s bigs make quick decisions on their defensive rotation.

PREDICTION:  It’s tough to bet against the Hawkeyes right now.  They are playing pretty good basketball on both ends of the court, and if they can put together 40 minutes of solid basketball, the wins are going to continue to come.   The last time Iowa played the #1 Pomeroy-rated team in the nation, they won on the road.  Can they accomplish the same feat at home today? I think they come up short to an incredibly talented Buckeye team.  Hawks beat the spread, but not Ohio State.  FINAL SCORE: Iowa 69,  Ohio State 77

Post Game Videos from the Iowa – Minnesota Game.  Iowa won 64-62 in Williams Arena.

Fran McCaffery Post Game Presser:

Devyn Marble Interview:

Zach McCabe Interview:

Matt Gatens Interview:

Winners of  four out of their last five games, the Iowa Hawkeyes head north to take on the Minnesota Golden Gophers.  Here’s a quick look at how the teams match up.

Game Info

Iowa Hawkeyes (9-6; 1-1) at Minnesota Golden Gophers (12-3; 0-2)
POMEROY RATINGS: Iowa – 99, Minnesota – 46
REALTIMERPI: Iowa – 117, Minnesota – 38
CBS RPI: Iowa – 149, Minnesota – 18
MASSEY RANKING: Iowa – 109, Minnesota – 41
Tip Off: Wednesday, January 4th, 2012; 8:06 PM CST
Minneapolis, MN; Williams Arena, 14,625
TV: BTN HD; BTN2GO.com
Radio: AM 600, 1040, and 800. SiriusXM 190.
Minnesota leads the series 100-88.

LINE: Iowa is an 8.5 point underdog on the road. Pomeroy predicts a 9 point Iowa loss.

Live Chat for the Game – RIGHT HERE

Projected Starters

IOWA

G – Devyn Marble, 6’6”, 194 lb, SO

G – Matt Gatens, 6’5”, 212 lb, SR

G – Eric May, 6’5”, 217 lb, JR

F – Melsahn Basabe, 6’7”, 225 lb, SO

F – Zach McCabe, 6’7”, 232 lb, SO

MINNESOTA

G – Julian Welch, 6’3″, 195 lb, JR

G  – Austin Hollins, 6’4″, 185, SO

G – Maverick Ahanmisi, 6’2″, 192, SO

F -  Rodney Williams, 6’7″, 200, JR

F – Ralph Sampson III, 6’11″, 241, SR

STATS COMPARISON:

• Points Per Game – Iowa 77.5, Minn 69.6
• FG % – Iowa 45.8, Minn 47.9
• Points per Poss:  – Iowa, 1.09, Minn 1.08
• eFG% – Iowa 49.9, Minn 52.6
• Opp eFG% – Iowa 50.2, Wisc 47.2
• 3 pt% – Iowa 34.4, Minn 35.6
• Opp 2 pt %: Iowa 49.4, Minn 43.5
• Opp 3 pt% – Iowa 34.6, Minn 36.1
• FT% – Iowa 74.6, Minn 70.5
• Offensive Turnover% – Iowa 16.4 Minn 22.0
• Defensive Turnover% – Iowa 21.8, Minn 23.5
• Offensive Reb% – Iowa 33.0, Minn 37.1
• Offensive Steal% – Iowa 5.8 (#1 in nation), Minn 10.3
• Offensive Block% – Iowa 5.9, Minn 9.3

Here’s a look at a graphical comparison of the teams from statsheet.com:

KEYS TO GAME FOR IOWA:

- Check the Transfer.  Julian Welch has picked up a lot of the slack since All-Big Ten Trevor Mbakwe went down for the season due to injury.  He’s a really nice shot from the outside, but isn’t particularly that great of a slasher.  Iowa’s guards need to be aware of where he is at all time, as he shoots over 47% from behind the arc.

- Go at Ralph.   Ralph Sampson III is going to go down as one of Minnesota’s most prolific shot blockers in the history of the program.  Because of that, and the inside presence he brings, Iowa needs to go at him and get him in foul trouble. Beside Rodney Williams, he’s really the only Gopher that rebounds the ball either.

- Keep the Crowd Tame.   Iowa took out the crowd when they played at the Kohl Center last time out, it certainly contributed to their win.  The Hawks need to keep Minnesota’s intensity and that of the crowd as low as possible.  If Rodney Williams starts jumping over everyone, it could get loud and ugly quickly.

- Rebound and Run.   Minnesota is not a great rebounding team, but their team defense is still a big staple (thanks to Tubby Smith).  Their perimeter defense is worse that Iowa’s (that’s not a typo) – however, Iowa shoots the three ball at one of the worst clips in the nation.  So the key is for Iowa to get out an run, avoid letting the Gopher set up in their tough man to man defense.

PREDICTION:  Iowa has lost the last six meetings against the Gophers.  Unfortunately for Iowa, I think the trend continues.  Then again, any team that can go into Madison and beat the Badgers has potential to hang with any team in the nation.  Iowa is going to get a ton of extra possession in this game, if they can turn those into points, they have a shot.   FINAL SCORE: Iowa 64, Minnesota 69