If you only want to listen to the Hawkeye related topics, they begin at the 25:00 minute mark of the video below:

At least for me.  It feels like it takes forever before the Hawks get the chance to wash away that feeling.

This week, they’ll step on the Kinnick Stadium turf as underdogs.  It’s the first time this season that Iowa has been an opening line underdog, which is what I expected last January when I gave my first hard and fast look at this season.  I felt that the Ohio State game would be the only game Iowa would not be favored in this season.

Yet here the Hawks sit at 7-3.

We’ve been over this ground, we’ve tried coming up with reasons or explanations to make us, the fans, feel better.  It’s a normal human reaction and for some, an outright requirement.  Some folks sleep better once they have exacted their pound of flesh from he who should be blamed.

It’s Friday, so the crows have picked over the carrion.  No one is pleased with 7-3, least of all the players.  Yet, they have to strap the helmets back on tomorrow (Saturday) and take on the #9 team in the nation, a program that Iowa has beaten just three times since I was born in 1971.

Can they do it?

I think they can and if they do beat Ohio State, I won’t feel like it’s all that big of an upset.

Call me crazy or call this whatever you want, but I firmly believe Northwestern quarterback Dan Persa is a more effective quarterback to exploit Iowa’s soft spots on defense than is Terrelle Pryor.

Pryor is the better athlete, but Persa is the better passer and the Northwestern offense dovetails the Iowa defense; it’s strengths can hurt Iowa.

So can a power running game, which the Buckeyes used in last year’s 27-24 win the Shoe.  I don’t expect a repeat of that in Kinnick.

Back to Pryor.  I realize is 5th rated passer in the NCAA, just two spots behind Iowa’s Ricky Stanzi.  I realize he has 22 touchdown passes this year, the same number as Stanzi.  I realize that at 6-6, 240 he can run like the wind blows.  But he is not as frenetic as Persa, who has a lot of Drew Tate in him.

I recently listened to former Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson talking about how to defend Michael Vick.  He said that you want to have a controlled pass rush; you don’t want to get too far upfield because the last thing a defensive lineman should do against Vick is get behind him, because that opens up his eyes for the run.

For years, Iowa has been so disciplined in this area and we have seen it several times this season.  We saw a controlled rush against Denard Robinson.  We saw it last week against Persa, too…the road to the quarterback may look clean and clear, but the players are taught to stay in their lanes and converge as a unit.  I felt the Iowa pass rush on Dan Persa was as good as we have seen it all year; the kid is just a player and the Hawks were on the field for 50 plays in the second half in part because the offense could not consistently convert third downs.

I realize Pryor is completing over 67% of his passes this year, which is about where Stanzi is.  I know that he has completed 10 straight passes on three different occasions this year, including a school record 16 straight against Ohio.

Yet, Ohio State has played one of the easiest schedules of any team in the Big Ten (the 85th best according to Sagarin.)  Wisconsin is #83, Michigan State #63 and Iowa #48.

Here are Pryor’s numbers against decent competition:

Penn State:  8-13, 139 yards, 2TD 1INT
@Wisconsin: 14-28 156 yards 0TD, 1INT
@Illinois: 9-16, 76 yards 2TD, 1INT
Miami (FL): 12-27, 233 yards 1TD, 1 INT

In those four games, he is 43-84 (51%) with 5TD and 4INT. He did run for more than 100 yards in the Miami and Illinois games, however, and he has that ability.

But I just don’t see him running wild on Iowa this week. He is going to have to go to the air. He is on record this week as saying this game plan the coaches have put in for the Hawkeyes is his favorite since arriving at Ohio State, better than the game plan for Oregon where they turned him loose.

Perhaps the Ohio State coaches are going to try to increase the play calling tempo and run the Iowa defense ragged. However, they don’t do this on a regular basis, and Pryor is not Persa. Pryor has had a lot of home run throws this year, but Iowa rarely gives those up. Perhaps they are going to try the dink and dunk route, but that is not his game and I hope that is what they try to do.

Of course, the Iowa offense has to come to play and the Ohio State defense is its usual stingy self. I have few ideas as to what has been plaguing the Iowa offense in the past two games.

Through the eight game mark, which was the 37-6 win over Michigan State, Iowa had been averaging 34.1 points per game and converting 51% of their third down attempts.

In the past two games, they have scored a combined 35 points and are just 7 of 26 on third downs, which is a 2007-like 27%. Can having your third string right guard starting in those two games make THAT much difference? I just don’t have the answers.

Yet for 80% of this season, the Iowa offense had been executing at a level rarely seen in the Ken O’Keefe era. Is it crazy to think that kind of efficiency could return as inexplicably as it left? Perhaps not.

I think Iowa is going to give Ohio State everything it has. If they execute the way they have for the majority of this season AND win the turnover battle, I think they’ll win the game.

However, as much as I hope that level of offensive execution returns, it seems folly to assume it will come back from the nether regions it has disappeared to.

So my head lean towards picking OSU to win this game, while my heart is pulling for the black and gold.

Then again, my head picked Iowa to go 12-0 this year…so that may be an encouraging notion.

What I don’t get are alleged Iowa fans posting messages to player facebook pages, ripping into them for losing.

As if the players don’t feel bad about it.

After the Wisconsin loss, Jared Clauss said in this space to take the pain your are feeling as a fan and multiply it by ten, and you might start to feel how bad the players take a loss.

Yes, we have years and in some instances decades invested as being fans of the Iowa Hawkeyes and I don’t want to belittle that.  For some, it’s a considerable financial investment.  But the players are invested with their day to day lives for the most part, while they are in college. This is their life and they are broken after losses.  There is no skipping class, there is no calling in sick to work for them. They have to go right back to practice and play a game that exacts a physical toll.

Tyler Sash received a message from an ‘Iowa fan’ on facebook that ripped into him and the team.  My guess is that it’s from some kid from some Chicago suburb who became a ‘fan’ in the last few years because he started going to Iowa and is upset that he won’t be getting his drunk on in New Orleans or Pasadena this year.

Stuff like this embarrassing for the vast majority of Iowa fans that would never stoop to such a thing.

These players deserve better than that.  They deserve the support of the fans.  That’s not to say the fans wont be upset or irritated when they lose games and I realize this year is going to leave the mark that goes along with unmet expectations.

But to ignore all the amazing moments these guys have delivered in recent years would be more than just a shame.

It’s Senior Day on Saturday in Kinnick.  It’s the last time many of these players will play before their home fans.  It’s a very special day, and this team needs the support of the Iowa fans now more than ever.

The Recruiting Class of 2006 has seen quite a bit in their years on campus.  Many of them, as true freshmen sitting out with a redshirt, went through Iowa’s first losing season since 2000.  Then as redshirt freshmen, they went through the 2007 season, one that ended with an embarrassing loss to Western Michigan at home.  They saw the tears streaming down Albert Young’s face on that senior day, they saw the pain.

Then as sophomores, many of them were standing in the gap, helping to turn the tide for the program.  Rick Stanzi emerged as the quarterback.  Adrian Clayborn and Christian Ballard started as defensive ends on one of the most statistically dominant defenses in Iowa football history.  Brett Morse emerged as a devastating blocker from his fullback position.  DJK emerged as a playmaker.  Jeremiha Hunter would be a three year starter at linebacker.   More players would emerge; Julian Vandervelde, Ryan Donahue, Paul Chaney, Jeff Tarpinian, Karl Klug, Troy Johnson.

These players put in the work to turn the program around while fellow classmates Arvell Nelson, Dominique Douglas and Anthony Bowman were bringing embarrassment off the field.

This class has done a lot.  They have delivered a lot to the fans.

Rick Stanzi is the second winningest quarterback in Iowa history.  He has led amazing fourth quarter rallies and engineered some game winning drives that will never be forgotten.  Penn State in 2008, Michigan State and Indiana in 2009.  Clayborn has done the same on his side of the ball.  DJK is the most decorated receiver in school history.  Ballard and Klug have been outstanding defensive linemen while Donahue has been arguably the best punter since Reggie Roby.

Allen Reisner is a semi-finalist for the Mackey Award, Vandervelde has started on the offensive line over the span of three seasons.  Brett Greenwood has started in four seasons for Iowa at free safety, while Troy Johnson has been a jack of all trades.  Kirk Ferentz called Jeff Tarpinian the ‘best guy that has never played here’ due to his injuries.  Colin Sandeman has made key catches, including a touchdown grab in the Orange Bowl and has been a steady punt return player.  Paul Chaney has also overcome key injuries in his career to contribute.

These players have been key ingredients for Iowa teams that won 22 of their last 27 games, including two January bowl games. With one more win this year they have had the third most successful three year run in school history. If they win two of their last three, it will be the second most successful three year run in school history behind the 31 wins between 2002-2004 and the 29 wins between 1985-1987.

That sort of production is excellent and it’s never been routine at Iowa. This group has accomplished much, even though this season has not gone according to their plan.

This weekend, Ohio State comes to town.  These seniors, this entire team, needs the Iowa fan base to rally behind them and show them the legendary support Hawkeye teams have come to expect.  There is a time for critical opinions, then there’s a time to set those aside and show your true colors.

Believe it or not, as the gnashing of teeth has been the dominant force on the message boards and talk radio shows since Saturday, this Iowa team has a chance to finish with a record of 10-3.

There have been just seven teams in Iowa football history that have won at least ten games.  Seven.  This team can still have a great finish and a great season through the eyes of history, even if it didn’t accomplish what it wanted to before the season began.

I know they won’t be able to do that without their 12th man at it’s absolute best on Saturday in Kinnick Stadium.  Do your part, Hawkeye fan, to let this team know how much you have appreciated the amazing run they have taken us on the last two and a half years.

In football, just like life, things don’t always go according to plan.  But the Iowa fans have been dependable for so long…bring it again this weekend.

Because you will see this for the last time for another year.  Don’t take this stuff for granted.

Then, seemingly out of nowhere, Gary Barnett’s Wildcats went 8-0 in Big Ten play in 1995 to capture the league title.  That snapped a 21-game win streak Iowa had in the series dating back to 1974.  The average score in those 21 Iowa wins was 38.3 to 11.4.  THE AVERAGE!

Prior to the 1995 breakthrough for the Wildcats, they had not won more than four games in a season since 1971; that’s how totally out of the blue their turnaround was.

Current coach Pat Fitzgerald was a star linebacker for the Wildcats in 1995 and was named the Big Ten’s Defensive Player of the Year.  However, he broke his leg in the second to last game of that season and was unable to play in the Grandaddy of them All…legend has it that he felt the play on which he broke his leg was not on the up and up, and legend says he still holds a grudge against that team that robbed him of the chance to play in the Rose Bowl at the conclusion of that dream season.

That team was and is Iowa.

Fitzgerald bounced back in 1996, again earning Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year honors and played in the Citrus Bowl the following year.

However now as head coach, there is little doubt of his feelings towards the Hawkeyes, the Wildcats closest Big Ten foe and a program they have long considered a measuring stick for their program, something that dates back to Gary Barnett’s days as their head coach.  ’If Iowa can come out of the doldrums and rise to a force in the Big Ten, why can’t we?’ was Barnett’s in-house mantra.  They figured that if they could beat Iowa, they were on the right track.

This week, Northwestern freshman running back Adonis Smith was asked if Coach Fitzgerald had anything special to say about the Iowa game.  “Coach? I really haven’t heard anything from him,” Smith said.  ”He’s just…he hates them. I know that for a fact. He hates Iowa.”

‘Tis no legend, after all.

Since 1995, Iowa is 5-8 against Northwestern.  The Cats are 4-1 in the last five meetings.

2005:  Iowa built a seemingly comfortable 24-7 halftime lead.  The Hawks had 17 first downs in the first half to just six for the Cats.  Iowa had amassed 317 total yards of offense in that first half, as Drew Tate was 15-19 for 197 yards.  Albert Young had 18 carries for 105 yards and two scores, and neither team had committed a turnover at that point.  Iowa still led 24-14 at the start of the fourth quarter and even extended their lead to 27-14 with 10:58 to play.

Northwestern scored a touchdown with 2:10 to play that made it 27-21.  They recovered an onside kick right after that score and scored again with :42 seconds left to play.  A bitter, bitter loss for Iowa.

2006:  Iowa lost this game in one of the most listless offensive performances in the Ferentz era.  This was the ‘Fat Cats’ season, the year where Ferentz felt his team played with some sense of entitlement.  Ferentz reiterated this week that the second half of that season was the low point for the program on the field, and was the beginning on a low point off the field that the team faced the following season.  Northwestern came into Kinnick Stadium and beat Iowa 21-7 and it wasn’t really that close.

2008:  Iowa led 17-3 in the second quarter, but the Wildcats scored just before the half to make it 17-10.  Iowa committed five turnovers in the game to Northwestern’s one, but still had a chance to win it as they had 1st and goal at the 8 with under a minute left.  Iowa could not score a touchdown in those four plays and the Hawks lost 22-17.   Shonn Greene had put up 159 yards on the ground through three quarters and four minutes, but took a helmet to helmet hit that knocked him from the game and he also fumbled on that play at the Northwestern 38 yard line with Iowa driving and leading by one.  Bitter.

2009: Iowa rolled up 160 yards of offense in the first quarter last year and led 10-0.  Northwestern was doing nothing, as Dan Persa was filling in for all everything quarterback Mike Kafka.  Then Rick Stanzi rolled out on a bootleg in the endzone and Corey Wootton sacked him and busted up his ankle. Stanzi fumbled, the Cats recovered for a touchdown and it was 10-7.  Iowa committed four turnovers on the day to Northwestern’s one, and while Northwestern gained just 239 yards of offense, they handed Iowa it’s first loss of the year after a school record nine wins to start the season.  The most pitter pill of all.

In three of those four losses since 2005, the Hawkeyes need look no farther than the mirror to see why they lost the game.  They failed to execute repeatedly in those losses, and the last two years they have are -7 in turnover margin in just the two games against Northwestern.

That’s how you lose.

I recall several years ago, in the midst of Iowa State’s five game winning streak against the Hawkeyes, were some fans were irritated with Kirk Ferentz, feeling he didn’t put the same emotional investment into the game that Dan McCarney did, and how it seemed the Cyclones used that emotional high to come out and ambush Iowa.

Some are starting to wonder, as Fitzgerald’s feelings on the Hawkeyes are becoming more understood and the, well, dominance in the win column in this series in recent years that the Cats have enjoyed, some fans are starting to wonder whether or not the Hawks need to dial of the focus and intensity for this series, too.

I can tell you that Chris Doyle is on it, with motivational posters and bulletin board quotes tacked up around the football complex.

You can debate on how much impact stuff like that has, but a poster on a weight bench doesn’t mean as much as a turnover on the enemy side of the 50.

Iowa just needs to take care of what it does, execute crisply and without self inflicted wounds, and they will be fine.

If only that were a guarantee.

Jon’s Prediction:  Iowa 31, Northwestern 16

There has been some considerable discussion related to Iowa’s defense on the message boards not just this week, but since Iowa lost to Arizona earlier this year. I have seen more than a few sarcastic references to ‘Iowa’s vaunted defense’ not just on our message boards, but others. Some folks are expecting this group to do more than they have, to rise up every single time the situation calls for it. Some are questioning Iowa’s philosophy that has been dubbed ‘bend don’t break’.

I submit the following, for your consideration….

Between the 2001-2009 seasons, Iowa has the 16th best winning percentage in all of the FBS. That jumps to the 13th best total if you remove non-AQ teams like Utah, TCU and Boise State that simply do not play the kind of week in week out schedules we see in the Big Ten, Pac 10, SEC and Big 12. Between 2002-2009, Iowa has the 15th best winning percentage in the FBS, and 12th if you remove the non-AQ’s.

So for the past eight or nine years, not counting the 2010 season yet, Iowa has been one of the Top 13 programs amongst the major players in college football. The primary reason for that has been the performance of Iowa’s defense.

Here are the years where Iowa has finished with nine or more wins, and what their national scoring defensive rank has been:

2002: 24th/19.7 (link to team stats and NCAA rankings for that year)
2003: 7th/16.2 (link)
2004: 16th/17.6 (link)
2008: 5th/13.0 (link)
2009: 8th/15.38 (link)

The 2009 number was impacted negatively by four pick sixes. Between 2008 and 2009, Iowa and USC tied for the fewest touchdowns allowed in all of FBS from plays from scrimmage.

How about years where Iowa didn’t finish with nine or more years?

2005: 22nd/20.0 (link)
2006: 45th/20.7 (link)
2007: 12th/18.8 (link)

That is an eight year average of ranking 17th in the nation in scoring defense. Folks, that is ELITE.

And is Iowa able to recruit ELITE level talent year in and year out? No, for a variety of reasons that I have explained numerous times through the years.

Iowa is currently 6th in the nation in scoring defense allowing 14.3 points per game, which would be the second best total of the Ferentz/Norm Parker era. That is ELITE. Iowa is on a pace this year to have the third best rushing defense total in school history and the second best of the Ferentz/Parker era.

Yet there are several people that are frustrated with the Iowa defense this year and through the years because the corners ‘give up soft cushions’ or ‘we can’t stop the slant’ or teams are ‘getting six or seven yards at a crack’ against Iowa’s defense.

The game is still decided by who scores the most points. Through the same years listed above, Iowa has only had one instance where its had a scoring offense in the Top 20, and that was in 2002 when it was 7th in the nation at 37 points per game, which is the school record.

It has been the Iowa defense that has allowed the Hawkeyes to have an UNPRECEDENTED run of success since 2002; four finishes in the Final Top Eight of the rankings.

Iowa’s defense is doing exactly what they want it to do; they don’t give up the big play.

Think of how many times you have seen DJK or Marvin McNutt or one of Iowa’s tight ends get behind the secondary this year. There have been many such plays, and we cheer them and love them. Now, think of how many times you have seen that happen AGAINST Iowa this year…three or four? None of them have gone for long scores. Nick Foles long pass late against Iowa in their loss to Arizona was so on the money that if it was another inch farther it would have been incomplete or a foot shorter and there were three Hawkeyes around the ball. The player was down on contact. Deep plays just don’t happen that often against Iowa, and it’s by design.

On their 20 scoring drives this year, Iowa’s opponents have AVERAGED 9.2 plays before they score either a field goal or touchdown. That is making people work for it. That is forcing an opposing quarterback to be poised, patient and accurate, something most college quarterbacks are not. On the flip side, Iowa’s ‘conservative’ offense has averaged 7.3 plays per scoring drive.

Yes, I realize that on Saturday Indiana dropped a pass in the endzone that could have beaten Iowa. But Iowa also dropped an interception on the play before that would have sealed a win. Iowa’s defense got their hands on five or six passes that day that could have been picked off. The linebackers dropping into zone coverage has worked far more often than not through the years. The ‘cushion’ that people complain about from the Iowa corners keeps things in front of them and forces teams to execute really well and consistently each and every time if they are going to score. There are no free lunches against the Iowa defense.

Iowa’s scheme also fits well with the kind of players they can recruit. Iowa is doing as good a job in recruiting now as they have ever done, but they still will lose more battles with the big boys because the best kids are where the big boys live. Yet this staff identifies and develops talent as good as any program in the nation. They are able to do what they do because of their scheme, because they force teams to be closer to perfect than Iowa has to be on offense to score.

Some folks are disappointed that the defensive line isn’t getting more sacks per game. Sure, we’d all love to see that, but you must take into account the style of offenses Iowa has been playing against. Eastern Illinois, Iowa State, Arizona, Michigan and Indiana are not teams that hold on to the ball in the pocket. Most of those teams use the lateral passing game as an extension of their running game, and Iowa has been playing excellent lateral pursuit defense this year. It might not be a sack, but the gains have been very small. Iowa held Michigan State to under 40 yards rushing where they had been running all over teams. Wisconsin had success against Iowa, but they have the best offensive line the Big Ten has seen since Iowa’s group in 2002.

Sometimes the other team has good players, too.

I guess I am not concerned one bit about Iowa’s defense. I tend to look at the macro, the big picture, within a game and a season. I choose not to sweat the micro, where a drive here or there gets away from Iowa, or a team converts a first down after a 2nd and 24. Yeah, you don’t like to see that. But in the end, if the scoreboard shows the Hawks have more points, that’t what I care about. When the Hawkeye defense holds a team 18 points below their season scoring average of 31 a game, as was the case on Saturday, that is what I care about.

Call it bend but don’t break if you will. I call it one of the nation’s best defensive units of the last decade with talent that didn’t rate nearly that high on paper. It’s a sound scheme and it’s working quite well.

Log on to flavortouchdown.com to enter for a chance to win the Sonic Flavor Touchdown Sweepstakes. You could win a prize package and a VIP football trip for 6 to the bowl game of your choice. And drive in today and get any Footlong Quarter Pound Coney and Tots for just $3.99.

Time to take a look into my crystal ball for this week’s bowl projections. It’s not always accurate and it can be a little murky this time of year, but each week the picture gets clearer and clearer.

Let’s go over a few things before diving in too deep…there is a reason I am starting out with some national BCS talk because I think it will affect the Big Ten and maybe Iowa, so bear with me.

With TCU destroying Utah, I have little doubt the Horned Frogs will increase their lead in the BCS standings over Boise State. TCU was 3rd last week with Boise 4th, as the computers had them at #3 and Boise at #5. In the polls, TCU was 4 where Boise was 3. I think TCU could creep up on Boise in the human polls this week, and they should. Boise will not play for the national title this year unless it’s against TCU.

Teams #5 & #6 lost; Utah and Alabama. Boise and TCU had to love seeing Bama lose, as the Crimson Tide is no longer a threat to jump them. #7 Nebraska needed overtime to beat Iowa State, and #8 Oklahoma lost to Texas A&M, their second loss in league play. Oklahoma State now finds itself all alone atop the Big 12 South. Wisconsin was #9 last week and LSU #10. I think LSU could go from #10 to #5, jumping over Nebraska and then the teams that lost.

Here are a couple deductions I will make based on this week’s results:
-The Big 12 will get one BCS bid because Nebraska will win the league title game with a healthy Taylor Martinez
-The SEC & Big Ten will be two bid leagues
-The Pac 10 will be a one bid league, with Oregon representing one half of the national title game

With that in mind, here are my Big Ten Bowl Projections for the week of 11-7

ROSE BOWL: Wisconsin (11-1/7-1)
SUGAR BOWL: Iowa (10-2/7-1)*
CAP ONE: Ohio State (10-2/6-2)
OUTBACK: Penn State (8-4/5-3)**
GATOR: Michigan State (10-2/6-2) (I think PSU beats them)
INSIGHT: Michigan (7-5/3-5)***
TEXAS: Illinois (8-4/5-3)
DALLAS: Northwestern (6-6/2-6)

*I believe Iowa gets the nod over Ohio State, a second Pac 10 team and a second Big 12 team for the Sugar. The Sugar Bowl gets the first pick this year from the at large pool, after replacement picks. The Rose will lose #1 Oregon, and get the first replacement pick. If TCU or Boise is ranked #2 in the final poll, meaning they play for the national title, the Rose IS NOT obligated to take a non-AQ team. I think the Rose would fill that slot with a Pac 10 team. IF TCU or Boise does NOT end up in the title game, then one of these teams will fill the Pac 10 vacancy in the Rose due to Oregon getting called up to the BCS title game.

Iowa has never played in the Sugar, will have (hypothetically) beaten Ohio State and I think the Iowa fans would travel better to New Orleans this year than Ohio State or just as well, and they would get the call over any Pac 10 runner up or a two-loss Oklahoma State team. I think Oklahoma will be a three loss team, losing either at Oklahoma State or vs Nebraska in the Big 12 title game. I have no idea how the SEC will play out, but I don’t think a one-loss LSU team is going to jump an undefeated TCU. Auburn is the SEC’s only shot at getting a team in the BCS title game. So if Auburn goes undefeated and plays for the title, the Sugar would get either the first or second replacement pick, with the Rose obligated to take TCU or Boise, and the Sugar would essentially get the first two at large, non-obligated picks. Iowa would be one of those picks. LSU could lose to Alabama now and still play for the SEC title as they beat LSU and Alabama has two losses. LSU has to play at Arkansas still but they are in a great position to get the second bid from the SEC. If Auburn wins out, it would be Iowa vs LSU in the Sugar Bowl. If Auburn loses the SEC title game, the Sugar would have to go with the SEC East winner that topped Auburn, which is doubtful. It would be either Iowa vs Auburn or Iowa vs LSU.

**I have the Outback taking 8-4 Penn State over 10-2 Michigan State. Getting a chance at Joe Paterno in what could be his final game? Yes.

***I have the Insight taking Michigan over Illinois, as the Wolverines have never played in that bowl and their fans might be interested in it.

NOTE…some people don’t think Iowa has a BCS chance. That’s because they are not looking deep enough to analyze WHICH BCS bowl game is going to be there considering a second Big Ten team. It’s going to be the Sugar…and the Sugar is not going to take a second Pac 10 team, or a Boise team if they are not in the Top 5.

NOTE TWO: In looking over the BCS rules some more tonight, I don’t think the non-AQ teams (teams from leagues not named Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, Pac 10, Big East or SEC) have the automatic bid inclusion clause if they are ranked #3 or #4. Just one non-AQ team gets an automatic bid, if they are in the Final Top 12. That will happen…but say TCU is #3 and Boise is #4, Boise would NOT get an automatic bid, based on how I am reading the rules.

IOWA BSC RANKING PREDICTION FOR 11-7: Up two slots to #14.

If football were scored like ice skating, where style points do matter, the Hawks might not have come out on top Saturday.

Thankfully, most every game is decided on the field, and those actions are on the scoreboard for all to see.

Every report I have read says Iowa 18, Indiana 13. Iowa even sent me the official game stats, and those confirm the 18-13 score.

Look, I think this was Iowa’s worst offensive performance of the season from the standpoint of execution, or their second worst if you want to choose the Arizona game. Iowa made four trips to the redzone on Saturday but scored just nine points and no touchdowns. If the Hawks would have punched it in on two of those four occasions, which still would have been well below their season touchdown percentage in the redzone prior to the start of the game, we’d be talking about a ho-hum road win. Still a few naysayers, but easier for the style points voters in the bunch. The Hawks also regressed on kickoff coverage, while the defense did its part, holding the Hoosiers to 13 points, 18 points below their season average, holding Indiana to nearly 100 yards below their season average of 314 yards per game.

The reactions after the game by some made me think back to another Iowa victory from the recent past.

Let’s call it Game X for now.

Iowa beat Team X in Game X, and Team X finished with a below .500 record on the season. Both games were on the road for the Hawks. Team X fell to 4-4 after the loss to Iowa, while Indiana is now 4-5 on their way to a below .500 record this year.

Iowa only gained 276 yards against Team X, and Rick Stanzi was just 11 of 26 for 138 yards and one touchdown. In Game X, Iowa made it to the redzone four times, and had to settle for three field goals. Iowa averaged just 4.2 yards per play against Team X and had just one touchdown drive, which was their last possession of the game. It was one of Iowa’s worst offensive games of that season.

Against Indiana, Ricky Stanzi was 22 of 33 (66% completion), 290 yard, one touchdown and and an interception on a play where Kirk Ferentz said the receiver ran the wrong route. We know about Iowa’s redzone situation from Saturday; they had to settle for four field goal attempts, making three. They moved the ball on Indiana, amassing 445 yards and 7.2 yards per play. Iowa scored its lone touchdown on its last meaningful possession on the game.

Both games resulted in Big Ten road wins for Iowa. Both of those wins counted as just one win in the left column, one win towards the season total of wins.

The difference is dramatics.

Team X was Michigan State and Game X was last year where Iowa mounted its only touchdown drive on the final possession of the game and had to come from behind to beat the Spartans on a dramatic last second play. The message boards were crazy at that time. Everyone was sky high. Yes, Iowa was undefeated at that point, but they could have easily lost to Northern Iowa in week one, Arkansas State a few games prior, they were down 10-0 at half to Wisconsin and going nowhere til some great halftime adjustments and an injury to John Clay flipped the script in the second half and they looked downright anemic on offense against the Spartans until that final, fateful drive. The Hawks were down double digits in the fourth quarter the following week to Indiana, but somehow pulled it out on a day where Stanzi had five interceptions.

This year’s Iowa offense is much better than last year’s group, and while they put up nearly 450 yards of offense and made four trips to the redzone and scored a touchdown from 52 yards out, they didn’t execute the way they have been so we naturally feel as though they played poorly.

Which they did, because points are what matters. Execution is what matters.

Yet, the team won the game and executed offensively in the clutch and this win against Indiana counts the same as last year’s win against Michigan State. When Iowa beat the Spartans last year, they were tied for first place in the Big Ten. When they beat Indiana today, they are tied for first place in the loss column.

I realize we have the hindsight of knowing Iowa would lose two games in Big Ten play after the Michigan State game last year. Iowa is in a similar position to where they were a year ago. After they came from behind to beat the Hoosiers, they needed to win their final three games to ensure a Big Ten title. If Iowa wins their final three games this year, they will win a Big Ten title.

Iowa was able to win today without their MVP on the field, and that’s Adam Robinson. I think the redzone woes would have been different were he on the field. They might have been different were Adam Gettis or Nolan MacMillan on the field at right guard. Yet they weren’t and the Hawks still found a way to win, like they did against UNI, MSU and Indiana one year ago.

Ferentz said after the game that Robinson would be ready to go against Northwestern. His body probably loved the extra rest it just got, and Iowa might be able to ride him a little harder these last three games than they otherwise would have if he had to go on Saturday, as long as he doesn’t suffer another concussion. Robinson has been knocked out of action by Michigan State the last two seasons. A starting guard has been knocked out of the next game by Michigan State the last two seasons, too; Dace Richardson was done for the year after that contest last year and Gettis came out of play last week.

Sorry, I got sidetracked by the coincidences there for a second.

The bottom line, at least to me, is that Iowa won on Saturday when the offense didn’t execute. Iowa is now 22-4 in their last 26 games. Some wins were pretty, some weren’t. But not a one of them was ugly, at least to me, because 22 of those games wound up in the left hand column.

There are enough things in this world to get sideways about other than an Iowa win in Big Ten play on the road.