Projecting the B1G v4

February 24, 2019

Written by Jon Miller

Here is my fourth B1G Hoops bracket projection. I have been releasing these each Sunday over the past month. I project each of the remaining Big Ten games and enter that into a program at http://bball.notnothing.net/b10bracket.php and it automatically renders the resulting Big Ten Standings, the tie-breaker scenarios for seeds and a bracket. You can click on the link and do the same. I will offer my thoughts below the bracket.




After losing to Maryland, Iowa seems fairly locked into the six-seed for the Big Ten tournament. If it beats Ohio State this week, it can do no worse than the six. Even if Iowa wins out, I don’t think it will get past Wisconsin and it’s not going to have enough wins to get one of the top four seeds. If it beats Wisconsin, it will likely just push the Badgers to the five seed and Michigan to the four. If it beats Iowa, then the Badgers are the four with the double bye and I think Michigan drops to the five. For Hawkeye purposes, the four and five seeds are on the opposite side of the bracket Iowa should be on, as the six seed…as should be Michigan State.

If you are not going to be one of the top four seeds, I think the six slot is better than the five, or has been in most years. You get the winner of the 11 v 14 game and if you win that, you get the three seed. In this scenario, that is Maryland…one of the most balanced offensive and defensive teams in the league. I don’t think Iowa would shoot as poorly against them in a rematch, and I think Luka Garza would be better…but…Maryland is not a great matchup for Iowa. If this were the bracket, I would likely pick Iowa to win one game and then lose one game, and be waiting for Selection Sunday with an overall record of 24-9 and looking at a six or seven seed in the NCAA tournament.

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IF Michigan should beat Maryland in DC next week, then the Wolverines would likely work their way to the three seed (they would hold a tie-breaker against Wisconsin at any rate, given their combined projected records against the #1 seeds, Michigan State and Purdue), pushing Maryland to the five and Wisconsin likely with the four…The Terrapins would be on the opposite side of the bracket from Iowa. I like how Iowa matches up with Michigan much better than how they match up against Maryland.

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Michigan State would hold the tie-breaker over Purdue if either Maryland and Wisconsin tie for third place, or Michigan and Wisconsin tie for third place.

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