Iowa's Title Run Predicted?

October 28, 2009

Written by Jon Miller

Hawkeye Nation

Some of you may remember this summer when an article surfaced that talked about the five common traits that fit the previous 11 BCS champions and predicted Florida’s title last year.

I recall doing an entire hour of radio on this topic, mostly because we would do anything to talk college football for an hour in July, and the item was also very favorable to Iowa.

The formula produced a set of seven teams prior to the start of the 2008 regular season:  Alabama, Florida, Kansas, Georgia, Rutgers, USC and Wake Forest.  Alabama and Florida played in the SEC championship game for a spot in the BCS title bout, and Florida won it all.  All seven of those teams won eight games in 2008

The first set of criteria winnowed the field down to the 66 teams in BCS conferences, plus Notre Dame.

The second set said that this year’s champion would need to have had at least eight wins from the year before.  That cut the list to 37, with Iowa still alive.

The third set said you needed to have a winning record in the month of November from the previous year.  Iowa and 24 other teams made that cut.

The fourth set said you had to have a quarterback returning who would have experience and be a junior or senior this season.  17 teams, including Iowa, met that criteria.

The fifth set said that you had to have at least six

Continue reading below

Related In HawkeyeNation Forums

starters returning from a defense that ranked in the Top 20 scoring defenses in the nation.  That cut the list down to just six teams:  Florida, Ole Miss, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Texas and Iowa.

From that list of six, THREE teams are presently undefeated and ranked in the current Top Four of the BCS:  Iowa, Texas & Florida.

Who knows what is going to happen over the final seven weeks of this college football season, but that set of criteria is an interesting harbinger worth looking at next year.

Continue reading below

Wait a second, we can write what we want to in this space…how about a peak at this criteria for next year’s Iowa team?

BCS Conference:  Check

At least eight wins:  Check

Continue reading below

Return a junior or senior QB with starting experience:  Check

Return at least six starters from a defense that was top 20 in Scoring Defense from the previous year:  Iowa will return at least six starters from this year’s defense, possibly nine but at least seven, depending on Amari Spievey and Adrian Clayborn and if they think about the next level.  Iowa is also 14th in the nation in scoring defense right now, with two thirds of their schedule to play, and they are nearly 3 points per game better than the team ranked #20.  I just don’t see the final four teams on Iowa’s schedule putting up huge numbers, so I think this one will be safe

Post a winning record in November:  Iowa hosts Northwestern & Minnesota while playing at Ohio State.  The odds would say it’s likely Iowa fares no worse than 2-1 in November, so they could meet this criteria as well.

Just a quick list of teams that WILL NOT meet all five sets of criteria for next year, off the top of my head:  Florida, Texas, Oklahoma and Penn State will all break in new quaterbacks, so they won’t make the cut.  Looking at teams from the Top 20 scoring defensive category alone, I believe Iowa could be in a smaller set of teams next year when we run these numbers than the six teams they were involved with this year.

HawkeyeNation Archives View All >

Hawkeye Nation

HN Podcast: COVID Concerns, Iowa Football Investigation, Analyzing Schedule

Rob Howe

July 7, 2020

Discussion the latest happenings in Hawkeye Athletics.

Hawkeye Nation

Howe: Ranking Excitement Level of 2020 Iowa Football Games

Rob Howe

July 6, 2020

Rating interest level of contests on schedule from 12 to 1.

Hawkeye Nation

Schwartz: 10 Sentences – Luka Garza’s Big Decision Edition

David Schwartz

July 5, 2020

Iowa Basketball center, reigning B1G Player of the Year still weighing options.

Hawkeye Nation

Howe: Focus Should Be on Hearing the Accounts of Former Hawkeyes

Rob Howe

July 3, 2020

These former Iowa Football student-athletes would like you to listen.

Hawkeye Nation

HN Podcast: Quinn Early on Kirk Ferentz, Hayden Fry, Racism

Rob Howe

July 2, 2020

Former Iowa Football, NFL receiver joins show to talk about time with the Hawkeyes, being Black in America and more.

Hawkeye Nation

HN Prospect Podcast: Arland Bruce IV Talks Iowa Culture, KC BBQ

Rob Howe

July 1, 2020

Class of ’21 WR discusses Tyrone Tracy comparison, ideas on helping Hawkeyes create more inclusive culture.

Hawkeye Nation

Former Hawkeye Greg Brunner Connects with Incoming Freshman Josh Ogundele

Rick Brown

July 1, 2020

Iowa basketball’s all-time leading rebounder dealt with doubts like newcomer from London.

Hawkeye Nation

Iowa Athletics Announces Department Budget Cuts for ’21 Fiscal Year

Athletic Communications

June 30, 2020

Reductions in salary and compensation are being spread across the department.