Herby says the upcoming season is in big time doubt

Discussion in 'Football' started by hawkinarkansas, Mar 27, 2020.

  1. Northside Hawk

    Northside Hawk Well-Known Member

    If I'm ESPN I consider suspending him for the rest of the year. Then his prophecy will come true and he will have no football season. Only it will go on without him. And he can spend all fall thinking about a stupid comment he made way back in March.
  2. peerok

    peerok Well-Known Member

    Its not the warm weather that slows the virus down, its the increased hours of sunlight. Thats why there have been fewer cases in Mexico where they've been having longer days than we have. Experts predict the virus will migrate to the southern hemisphere as our summer becomes their winter.
  3. eyekwah

    eyekwah Well-Known Member

    I'm in deep south Texas and the first cases here were people returning from travel outside the area. We've had a lot of warm temps (approaching 100 and quite sunny) since the 1st of March. There were not any cases until about 10 days ago. I am a believer that longer hours of sunny daylight and hotter temps will aid in suppressing the spread. Anyone that has done or is doing International or Interstate travel are high risk and need to quarantine. We have to fly back to Iowa and are taking precautions by wearing masks and surgical gloves for the flight. Once back we will quarantine for 14 days. We will stay in our home the entire time.
  4. bitmap

    bitmap Well-Known Member

    There might be something to this. I noticed that Phoenix has a relatively low number of confirmed cases for having 4.7 million people in its' metro. Could be the lack of testing but now that we have tested one million people the numbers are interesting. Less than 20% of those tested are positive. Ostensibly at this point those tested would have had confirmed contact w/ confirmed cases. 30% of the confirmed cases had no symptoms. Corona viruses are relatively common in the SW U.S. The domestic kind generally require direct contact w/ rodent feces. There could be some cross immunity w/ the Wuhan SARS Corona virus. When the antibody test comes out we will get a better picture. I really hope Herby is wrong on this. I'm missing sports already.
  5. tweeterhawk

    tweeterhawk Well-Known Member

    Not so “stupid” at all. This thing has many more months to run, especially if we succeed in “flattening the curve.” That may save lives and hospital bed overcrowding, but it pushes diminishment to “safe” levels further down the road.

    Starting practice on July 1 is not enough time to get D1 players in game shape and likely isn’t enough time to implement offensive and defensive strategies.

    Beyond on-field matters, the conferences and schools will have a multitude of issues to deal with: fanbase willingness to gather in large crowds not far removed from the intensely reported sickness and death numbers during the COVID-19 peak; protective measures to guard against lingering traces of the disease; very likely sharply reduced sponsorship and advertising revenues; diminished viewing audiences.

    Interesting times.
  6. Northside Hawk

    Northside Hawk Well-Known Member

    He made a pretty bold statement considering that the best medical experts have repeatedly said they are still trying to wrap their heads around this. The only defense I can offer up for Herby is that, after the Olympics, football is the most difficult thing to stop from a logistical standpoint once you commit to starting it up.

    I still think he should have kept it zipped for at least a few more weeks. I have faith in the country I live in that we will have ways of thwarting a return of this virus if it does come back in the fall.

    I also agree that while flattening the curve may save lives, it may prolong the length of the thing. Let's get through April first and see what happens.
  7. westender

    westender Well-Known Member

    Yes it does prolong it and that is what they want. Otherwise you have this huge wave of critically ill that swamps all the hospitals and you choose who lives and who dies. Basically they want us to get this more slowly so they can properly manage patients. This is obviously highly contagious if you are around someone with it. If they could get anti-virals that worked as a preventative or to mostly prevent death that would be huge. There will not be a widely available vaccine until early 2021.
  8. Xerxes

    Xerxes Well-Known Member

    If there is going to be a football season the curve better start to flatten soon. I thought it was starting to level out over the last 3-4 days but today has already surpassed the worst day the US has had in terms of new confirmed cases and new deaths and there is a lot of hours left in the day.
  9. Northside Hawk

    Northside Hawk Well-Known Member

    I havent seen one medical expert say this curve would start to flatten around April 1st. Most are saying mid to late April.

    Events a lot smaller than the NFL that were scheduled for June are getting cancelled. I won't start worrying about the NFL until either baseball gets cancelled or late July/early August events get cancelled. Like the running of the bulls in Spain.

    People were asked, and in many states required, to socially distance about twelve days ago. If cases continue to rise this weekend and into next week that's a pretty clear indication that many of them weren't listening.
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2020
  10. EstronHawkKing

    EstronHawkKing Well-Known Member

    A doctor n NBC tonight said this virus will die down come warmer weather, but will still be here. He said when the normal cold/flu season kicks in next fall, so will this Covid-19 virus once again. If this doctor is correct and we have no vaccine for it, we can kiss high school, college and NFL football goodbye. Football may start in late August, but come mid October, I guess we'll see.
  11. PCHawk

    PCHawk Well-Known Member

    If the curve gets flattened soon, it makes it even less likely we will have a football season. Our best chance at football season is to give up on flattening the curve.
  12. Northside Hawk

    Northside Hawk Well-Known Member

    Goodell doesn't give a shit abut the curve, this pandemic, this country, or the well-being of his players. There will be football this fall.

    In 2001, when Tagliabue was the commish, the 9/11 tragedy push the Super Bowl back a week, and along with it all the hotels, logistics, the works. New Orleans, and the Superdome, had some big auto convention or something going on. Didn't matter a hill of beans to the NFL, they told New Orleans to move it to another weekend.
  13. SteveGarvey1

    SteveGarvey1 Well-Known Member

    Hopefully we'll be prepared for it in the fall, with proper hygiene care, minimal group gathering and maybe some kind of treatment that at least diminishes the symptoms while they wait for a vaccine.
    EstronHawkKing likes this.
  14. Xerxes

    Xerxes Well-Known Member

    I could see a scenario in which the games are played without fans. Its possible I suppose with lots of parameters in place and if they can get a lot of tests available. Although Universities would still lose a ton of money.

    But the thought of federal or state governments allowing gatherings of 50,000 to 100,000 people in 5 months is just not logical. Not until a vaccine is developed or the virus is basically eradicated.
  15. Xerxes

    Xerxes Well-Known Member

    The NFL does have the financial resources, power over its players, & marketing power to basically do whatever it wants. Fans will probably not be able to be involved, or not nearly as much as they think they will be. The games might have to be broadcast from Mexico, but yeah I think the NFL will find a way to move forward.
    Northside Hawk likes this.
  16. AreWeThereYet

    AreWeThereYet Well-Known Member

    The first number you quote of 4.6% is the raw mortality rate = #ofDeaths / ReportedCases. From that they estimate what they think true number of cases is. Estimated cases can be 5X to 10X the number of reported cases, depending on a number of factors. A high percentage of asymptomatic cases will push that multiplier up.

    Semi-official estimates are starting to come out of Wuhan China were the virus started. The estimated mortality rate coming out of Wuhan is 1.4%, which would make a mortality rate roughly 10X that average influenza mortalityof .1%. That 1.4% number seems to corroborate with preliminary statistics coming out of other places as well.

    Another factor is how contagious the disease is. The multiplier I have commonly seen for influenza at the height of the season is 1.3X. That is each case of the influenza will spread the influenza to an average of 1.3 people. Preliminary estimates for the Covid-19 range between 2X - 3X. That is one infection will spread to between 2 to 3 people. That is why you are seeing an exponential expansion in the number of cases that is like hitting a wall.

    Another thing they are producing numbers on, and this is just coming out in the last few days is estimates on the number asymptomatic cases. Numbers on this have come out of both Wuhan and Iceland using very different methodology from each other. In the capitol of Iceland, which still has a very low infection rate, they are allowing a large number of no symptoms required testing open to the general public. These tests are coming up with a positive rate of only 1% (which is still very small), but they are also finding that around 50% or the cases are asymptomatic. Wuhan China, which has a high infection rate is also reporting around 50% of cases being asymptomatic.

    What this means is the mortality rate may in reality be around .6 compared to .1 for the influenza. That would give a mortality roughly 5X that of influenza. Covid-19 is extremely infectious though, spreading with a multiplier upwards of 3X cases for each infected person. This also means the number of cases actually out there, may be double the estimates.
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2020
    SmokeTownHawk and uihawk82 like this.
  17. tweeterhawk

    tweeterhawk Well-Known Member

    Possible. But you would need to quarantine hundreds of D1 football players on their campuses and then have them travel to the game site, hope that none of them have been exposed to the virus. And there you'll have 50-60 athletes each game getting in close contact with each other, breathing, coughing, sneezing, touching each other. I dunno ... just hard to picture it.
  18. revkev73

    revkev73 Well-Known Member

    This is going to be a 2-3 year deal, before settling into a "new normal."

    Buckle up.
  19. PCHawk

    PCHawk Well-Known Member

    They will probably have a vaccine before then. It will probably take that long and then some to get the economy back to normal tho.
  20. revkev73

    revkev73 Well-Known Member

    Long haul, gear up boys, pick up your ruck and weapon, move out.