Howe: 10 Fearless Predictions for Hawkeye Football '19

Discussion in 'Football' started by RobHowe, Aug 21, 2019.

  1. RobHowe

    RobHowe Administrator

    Taking a stab at some prop bets for Iowa this season:

  2. CP87

    CP87 Well-Known Member

    I am going to take the over on Stanley's TDs, and I am basing that mostly on optimism of him connecting on more big plays. I think they will be a pass-first team this year, and I think they have some potential big-play ability (mostly ISM). However, I could definitely see Stanley passing for more yards (3,000) and having fewer TDs, because I do think they want to be able to run the ball effectively when they get close to the goal-line (ala NE Pats).

    Where would you set the over-under for Stanley passing yards? (2432 and 2852 that last 2 years)

    I gotta take the under on AJE sacks. 18 is just a huge number that has almost never been hit. Here are the top single-season sack totals across the NCAA since 2005 (last 14 years, from sports reference):

    Rk Player Sk Year School
    Elvis Dumervil* 20 2005 Louisville
    2 Hau'oli Kikaha* 19 2014 Washington
    3 Nate Orchard* 19 2014 Utah
    4 Jaylon Ferguson* 18 2018 Louisiana Tech
    5 Josh Allen* 17 2018 Kentucky
    Von Miller* 17 2009 Texas A&M
    Ameer Ismail* 17 2006 Western Michigan
    8 Harold Landry* 17 2016 Boston College
    9 Demarcus Walker* 16 2016 Florida State
    Marcus Smith* 16 2013 Louisville
    Whitney Mercilus* 16 2011 Illinois
    Greg Middleton* 16 2007 Indiana
    Dan Bazuin 16 2005 Central Michigan
    14 Carl Nassib* 16 2015 Penn State
    Da'Quan Bowers* 16 2010 Clemson
    16 Sutton Smith* 15 2018 Northern Illinois
    Scooby Wright* 15 2014 Arizona
    Trent Murphy* 15 2013 Stanford
    Brandon Sharpe* 15 2009 Texas Tech
    Jerry Hughes* 15 2008 Texas Christian
    Willie Evans 15 2005 Mississippi State
    22 Jaylon Ferguson* 15 2016 Louisiana Tech
    Shane Ray* 15 2014 Missouri
    Jarvis Jones* 15 2012 Georgia
    George Selvie* 15 2007 South Florida

    I could see 15, but I think 18 is out of reach with the amount of attention he will receive. The only way I could see it happening is if they move him around and really hunt mismatches (like what the Texans do with JJ Watt), as someone else on here has suggested (sorry, can't remember which poster). I don't see Iowa doing that, though.

    What do you see as a good over-under for team sacks? (35 sacks last year, 25th nationally; 29 the year before, 45th nationally)

    Another good over-under: total interceptions. 21 in 2017 (1st in nation), 20 in 2018 (2nd in nation). Where do you set that number?
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  3. RobHowe

    RobHowe Administrator

    Good numbers on the sacks. I should have looked that up. Not going back, though. AJE is a freak.

    Let's set Stanley's passing yards total at 2,750.

    I'll put INTs at 19 and sacks at 34.
  4. CP87

    CP87 Well-Known Member

    I'll take an emphatic over on passing yards and sacks, and a lukewarm under on the INTs.

    Is ISM the clear-cut #1 punt returner this year? If so, that will be a bit scary (he hasn't always judged balls the best on kick returns), but really fun (it is easier to take back a punt then a kick-off).
  5. RobHowe

    RobHowe Administrator

    I couldn't get a true feel for the PR at Kids Day. ISM was back there as the No. 1, but Ragaini also saw plenty of reps.
  6. trj

    trj Well-Known Member

    I thought Leroy Smith had 18 sacks for Iowa in 1990. As most remember Iowa used that 5-2 scheme and their d-ends never put their hands in the dirt.

    As for AJE I am thinking low double digits(10-12 range). I realize teams will be sliding protection toward him, but I think he is a special talent that will get some sacks just by being relentless.
  7. BrianFerentzForPresident

    BrianFerentzForPresident Well-Known Member

    You’ll see this especially against QBs that hold onto the ball too long. AJE will be relentless.
  8. FCAS

    FCAS Well-Known Member

    Predicting Stanley's TDs is a tough one.

    On one hand, if we do run the ball better, there should be more play-action opportunities. One the other hand, if we are running the ball better, I could see the number of short yardage TDs going down. Over the last 2 years, 16 of his 52 TDs were for 5 yards or less.

    On one hand, Stanley played with an injured thumb last year. On the other hand (at the risk of angering folks), there is always the potential for an injury keeping him completely out a game.

    On one hand, we really need to get some experience for our backup QB(s), which could knock a few off of Stanley's total. On the other hand, the KF track record is not very good on getting meaningful snaps for the backup.
  9. SpiderRico

    SpiderRico Well-Known Member

    1. I agree with you here. I think the rushing stats end up similar to 2015 when Canzeri had like 900 yds, LeShaun had like 600 and Akrum had like 500. I'll predict Toren has 850, Mekhi has 700, and IKM has 400.

    2. I think Stanley sets the record this year, so I'm going over. I do think BF is moving more towards a passing offense and with the growth of our receivers, I think NS hits 28 tds this year.

    3. I'll go under. AJE will see more double teams and chipping from backs/TEs. Even though he'll have increased snap counts, he won't necessarily have a lot more passing snap counts. And given previous data on top sack totals the last decade or so, I'll go with 12.5 sacks.

    4. I'll go over. '12-'16 was Greg Davis, so makes sense no one had over 800 yds receiving. '17 & '18 was about building the WR room back up. It's there now with 5 legitimate P5 talents. I'll go 865 as the number.

    5. I'll go under as well. I think one of the outside guys will get the 865 and avg 18 ypc, so that puts the reception total at 48.

    6. This one is a tough one. While it rarely happens, last year was also the first year we went that might have something to do with not having so much activity funneled to the MLB. I'll stick with the under and go 94.

    7. I agree with you on this. I'll say Stone leads with 5.

    8. For those that golf, you know your ball flies farther in warm, dry air than in moist, cool air. Given that, I don't think Sleep-Dalton breaks 42.0 per punt. I'll go under at 40.3.

    9. I agree. In fact, I'll go one better and say that we score one each on punt and kick returns this year.

    10. I'm going under as well. While early indications are that this class has a lot of really good players, I can't see burning that many shirts, barring some major injuries. I'll go under as well and it'll be the same as last year with 4.
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  10. thedukeofearl

    thedukeofearl Well-Known Member

    Interesting article, Rob

    Well done

    Mucho food for thought


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  11. Hawk1960

    Hawk1960 Well-Known Member

    AJ and Golston combine for a total of 24 sacks. 14 and 10 ... by mid-season they will be known as the "Bruise Brothers".
  12. Northside Hawk

    Northside Hawk Well-Known Member

    I like Stanley's chances of breaking the career TD record as well

    Those TD's of five yards or less are absolutely no knock on our running backs. I think they're an indictment of Brian's system. And I think the TE's will still be heavily utilized down there even without the two we lost.
  13. Motigerhawk

    Motigerhawk Well-Known Member

    I read this as Stanley throwing 19 INTs and getting sacked 34 times.

    I was thinking it would be a miserable season if that happened.
  14. LGEND24

    LGEND24 Well-Known Member

    I also think ISM houses 1 this year. He’s been close multiple times. He would have had that one at Nebraska, but had it called back due to the block in the back that wasn’t even needed since he was in the clear.
  15. CP87

    CP87 Well-Known Member

    A few more for you. I will start with this one.

    Average yards/carry for Young/Sargent, combined.

    Last year it was 4.7 for the top 2 backs. It was 4.4 for Wadley/Butler in 2017, 5.6 for Wadley/Daniels in 2016, and 5.2 for Canzieri/Daniels/Wadley in 2015.

    If I set the over/under at 5.1, what are you going to take?
  16. CP87

    CP87 Well-Known Member

    Pass vs. run%. I am going off of #s, and I am subtracting sacks from run attempts and adding them to pass attempts (I don't know any good way to account for QB scrambles on called pass plays, but it is a pretty good guess than almost all of Stanley's rush attempts were scrambles; I will include those #s if anyone is curious).
    • 2018
      • 488 runs, 408 pass, 13 sacks; adjusted numbers: 475 runs, 421 pass (53% run)
      • Stanley had 36 rush attempts
    • 2017
      • 481 runs, 355 pass, 25 sacks; adjusted numbers: 456 runs, 380 pass (54.5% run)
      • Stanley had 49 rush attempts
    • 2016
      • 502 runs, 310 pass, 30 sacks; adjusted numbers: 472 runs, 340 pass (58% run)
      • CJ had 83 rush attempts
    • 2015
      • 568 run, 369 pass. 30 sacks; adjusted numbers: 538 run, 399 pass (57% run)
      • CJ had 100 rush attempts

    I suppose you gotta set that # around where it has been the last couple years (53.5% run).

    I have been predicting previously that the number would be under 50% run, but looking through the Ferentz era, I am not sure that has EVER happened. Even in 2004, Iowa still had 3.5 more rushes per game than pass attempts (Drew Tate had 89 rush attempts for -76 yards, so it is probably a safe bet that % of called passes slightly exceeded % of called runs).
  17. CP87

    CP87 Well-Known Member

    Pass vs. run% on 1st down:

    I am just going off attempts here, not sure how to account for sacks and scrambles with these situational numbers.

    • 2018: 251 runs (4 ypc on 1st, 4 ypc overall), 137 pass (7.1 yds/att): 65% run
      • Pass rating 147 on 1st down, 136 overall
    • 2017: 236 runs (4 ypc on 1st, 3.8 ypc overall), 123 pass (8.2 yds/att): 66% run
      • Pass rating 158 on 1st down, 136 overall
    • 2016: 245 runs (5.5 ypc on 1st, 4.5 overall); 108 pass (7.6 yds/att): 69% run
      • Pass rating 126 on 1st down, 122 overall
    • 2015: 293 runs (4.8 ypc on 1st, 4.5 overall), 129 pass (8.8 yds/att): 69% run
      • Pass rating 159 on 1st down, 139 overall

    Over/under at 65%.
  18. CP87

    CP87 Well-Known Member

    Big pass plays (25+ yds):
    • 2018: 26 (wonder how many were to Hock/Fant?)
    • 2017: 21
    • 2016: 19
    • 2015: 20
    Over/under at 25
  19. CP87

    CP87 Well-Known Member

    Big run plays (20+ yds):
    • 2018: 7 (we have all seen that paltry # a bunch)
    • 2017: 17
    • 2016: 18
    • 2015: 20
    I don't even know where to set the over/under on that one? Is last year a fluke (clearly an outlier in the last 4)? Or was the presence of Wadley in 2017 masking a fundamental problem with the rush offense design?
  20. mopkins

    mopkins King Kong

    Echoing Rob here....I think AJE's sack count might be lower than people expect this year. I assume teams will be fearful of him and double up on him or chip him with an RB/TE....which should allow the rest of our DL to feast.

    I'm still a huge fan of keeping AJ fresh on obvious passing downs.