Howe: A Game-by-Game Prediction of Iowa's Season

Discussion in 'Football' started by RobHowe, Aug 8, 2019.

  1. RobHowe

    RobHowe Administrator

    One person's opinion on how the '19 Hawkeye campaign will play out:

  2. okeefe4prez

    okeefe4prez Well-Known Member

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  3. #1DieHardHawk

    #1DieHardHawk Well-Known Member

    Like most seasons, a lot of toss-up games. We'll have to see how it plays out.

    I think Iowa's D will be solid if the DTs show progression from last year and Nixon is as advertised.

    The offense is the question mark. Stanley has to take that next step. If he can show improved moxy and accuracy, it could be quite a season. If not, I see the season playing out much like last year, where we look like world-beaters one game, then a JV squad the next.
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  4. guffus

    guffus Well-Known Member

    Agree, his 2018 predictions were pretty impressive. 8-4 and 5-4 in Big Ten. I have to admit he nailed it!
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  5. SpiderRico

    SpiderRico Well-Known Member

    Miami(OH) - 45-10. Senior QB, experienced Oline and receivers, leads to a fast start on offense. Defense gives up early FG then clamps down with scrubs giving up late TD.

    Rutgers - 34-13. Rutgers hasn't been totally beat down yet, since it's only Week 2, so they come out fired up. Game is close at half (17-13), but defense pitches a shutout in the 2nd half.

    Iowa State - 31-23. Their defense is good, but ours is just a little bit better. Couple that with the loss of their 2 biggest playmakers on O and our Senior QB vs their young QB, and we escape with a hard-hitting, hard fought win.

    MTSU - 52-13. MTSU has been good in the past, but they lost everyone. Our players refuse to get caught up in a trap game. We hit them early and often.

    Michigan - 24-26. Michigan's O moves the ball on our D, but we buckle down in the redzone and hold them to 4 field goals after an early TD. Up 24-19 late, we can't hold on at the Big House and Michigan comes out on top.

    Penn State - 24-21. Game 1 of the midseason revenge tour. We return the favor from 2017. Down 21-17 late, we rally in the closing minutes to pull out a thriller.

    Purdue - 42-28. Game 2 of the midseason revenge tour. They've had our number, but we finally get it figured out. Old school shootout.

    Northwestern - 27-19. Game 3 of the revenge tour sees us exorcise another demon. We turn a late Northwestern drive away, finally.

    Wisconsin - 34-21. Final game of the midseason revenge tour sees us put together our most complete game to date. They expect us to come out going all short side zone run and we come out in shotgun firing away, ala against Pitt in 2015.

    Minnesota - 20-24. Here it is folks. The "gag" game. After dispatching of our 4 main antagonists over the past 3 years, we finally run out of mental juice and give this one away late.

    Illinois - 56-13. What better team to have to break out a one-game duldrum. Not even as close as the score indicates.

    Nebraska - 38-34. You'll never get KF to admit it, but this is the one team that he cherishes beating more than any other on the schedule. With a division title on the line, it's a game for the ages, but Nebraska just doesn't have enough yet in the trenches.

    10-2; 7-2 Division Champs.
  6. westender

    westender Well-Known Member

    No one really nails it because turnovers which have a huge impact on the final outcomes are in no way predictable. How many games in 2018 were turnovers a key in losses or wins?
  7. Hawk1960

    Hawk1960 Well-Known Member

    I think 8-4 sounds about right. I think we drop either the PSU or Purdue game, Would really like to see the PSU game be under the lights. Could happen.

    We beat Nebraska again, I just don't see Martinez surviving the full year in one piece with a weak OL that the Bugeaters are going to have trouble holding together with duct tape. Teams are going to be keying on him all year. He will be all banged up by game 12 ... or watching from the sideline and witnessing AJ throw their 2nd string QB around like a rag doll.
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2019
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  8. trj

    trj Well-Known Member

    I do like that Iowa plays 2 games before going into the Iowa St. game. And you couldn’t ask for better opponents, they can create some challenges, but will not overwhelm Iowa.
  9. RobHowe

    RobHowe Administrator

    The Hawkeyes had an adjusted turnover margin of 16 last season, which was second nationally. That likely will be hard to repeat so they will need to make up for it in other areas.
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  10. Xerxes

    Xerxes Well-Known Member

    I don't disagree with your record prediction, I think anywhere from 12-0 to 5-7 is possible with this schedule. But I'd be absolutely shocked if they score 35 points a game over an entire season.
  11. SpiderRico

    SpiderRico Well-Known Member

    FYI, we averaged 32ppg last year with a virtually non-existent running game. Granted, turnovers created by the defense helped to create short fields....but we still eclipsed the 30ppg mark last year....
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  12. CP87

    CP87 Well-Known Member

    Where did you find this data (I looked, but couldn't find a site that provided it)?

    Certain aspects of turnovers (forcing interceptions, not throwing interceptions, forcing fumbles, not fumbling) seem to be repeatable. Other aspects (like recovering a fumble once it hits the ground), seem to be fairly random.

    An Adjusted turnover margin stat typically tries to take the randomness out of turnovers by, for instance, assuming that that a team would recover 50% of the fumbles that hit the ground during the game.

    Iowa had a turnover margin of +9 last year (gained 27, coughed up 18). Of the 25 fumbles that hit the ground during their games, they recovered 12. So how do they get from the actual turnover margin of +9 to an adjusted margin of +16? Furthermore, if the actual margin is LESS THAN the adjusted margin, that means they were unlucky in a given season, so we could very well believe the next season would be better (a regression to the mean). Please correct me if I am misunderstanding something here.

    If we just look at raw TO margin, the Hawks are good more often than not:

    2018: +9 (16th in nation)
    2017: +7 (26th in nation)
    2016: +6 (28th in nation)
    2015: +11 (11th in nation)
    2014: -6 (105th in nation)
    2013: -1 (69th in nation)
    2012: +12 (14th in nation)
    2011: +1 (49th in nation)
    2010: +13 (7th in nation)
    2009: +2 (51st in nation)

    '13/'14 are the Ruddock years, both of which were characterized by a high # of TOs lost (interceptions in '13, fumbles in '14), and relatively low number generated (especially in '14).

    2011 is JVB's first season, and the issue was primarily with low # of takeaways generated.

    2009 of course had Pick-6 Rick (99th worst in the country at giving the ball away).

    Of the least 10 seasons, the Hawks have been in the top 20% in raw TO margin 6 times (3 times in the middle of the pack, once really bad; top 20% in the nation for the last 4 years in a row).

    When they have had a senior QB (2010, 2012, 2016), they have been 7th, 14th, and 28th in the nation.

    The Hawks have a fearsome pass rush, Phil Parker and his talented defensive backfield, and good pass protection.

    I doubt the Hawks fall way short of that +9 raw number.
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  13. iloveyoularrystation

    iloveyoularrystation Well-Known Member

    Miami (Ohio) at Iowa
    Mediocre mac team, iowa walks. 35-10

    Rutgers at Iowa, 11 a.m. CT, Sept. 7, FS1
    If this game was at Rutgers I’d be more scared. Rutgers might be the 2nd worst team on Iowas schedule. 35-10 hawks

    Iowa at Iowa State, 3 p.m. CT, Sept. 14, FS1
    Mediocre isu o-line vs iowa dline. Hawks win this in the trenches as isu is not as athletically gifted on offense as they have been the last couple years. 21-13 Iowa

    Middle Tennessee State at Iowa
    Might be worst team iowa has played in awhile.
    46-3 Hawks. Backup qb’s help lead us to 17 points as they get work in this one.

    Iowa at Michigan, 11 a.m. CT, Oct. 5, TBD
    If this was at Iowa I’d have Iowa. Its not. 17-16 wolves on field goal late in 4th quarter.

    Penn State at Iowa, TBD, Oct. 12, TBD
    The only question I have is, will our tackles show up to stop that dude from psu that dominated last year on the dline whose name escapes me and I’m too lazy to look up? Other than that, Iowa is better at almost every position on the field for the first time in awhile. Don’t turnover the ball, we win. 23-16 Hawks.

    Purdue at Iowa, 11 a.m. CT, Oct. 19, TBD
    2 years ago iowa was out schemed by purdue. Last year, and you can make a scheming argument here, but I don’t; one freshman cb had a really, really, really bad day, otherwise the hawks did a nice job on defense. This year they don’t have a 5th year senior qb playing steele jantz ball (also called chuck and pray) against a freshman cb. Good guys win- 28-14 hawks.

    Iowa at Northwestern, 11 a.m. CT, Oct. 26, TBD
    This game is at northwestern. They are the bane of our existence. 21-17 cats.

    Iowa at Wisconsin, TBD, Nov. 3, TBD
    Good guys exercise some demons here. Iowa grits one out 17-12. 4th quarter td in a game that’s closer than it should be cause its Wisconsin.

    Minnesota at Iowa, TBD, Nov. 16, TBD
    Minnesota sprains a leak before play even starts this fall. Iowa takes advantage. Floyd stays where it belongs. 38- 13 Hawks.

    Illinois at Iowa, TBD, Nov. 23, TBD
    Illinois is not good. 35- 14 Hawks.

    Iowa at Nebraska, 1:30 p.m. CT, Nov. 29, BTN
    I’ve never seen a less talented team get more praise in an off-season because of a coach who did good at a lower level job but has proved nothing at a big time job. They have a great qb, and some good schemes. Iowa keeps nebby from becoming bowl eligible, and wins 32-14 in a game where vanvalkenberg comes off the edge and gets a strip sack for a td.

    Hawks roll 10-2 regular season. Only 1 loss in the big ten west, go to indy, and beat Michigan in a rematch. Head to a not playoff January bowl, ruining the big tens chances for a playoff berth.

    Game i'm most likely completely off base on? ISU. Or really any other ones.
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  14. homes

    homes Well-Known Member

    12-0. BT Champ game against OSU (sorry Harbaugh) - win. Iowa to the Playoffs. Probably won't win the National Championship, because I'm being realistic.
    karras likes this.
  15. okeefe4prez

    okeefe4prez Well-Known Member

    If the o-line is really, really good, this team could go 12-0 and have a date to lose by 30+ to Clemson in the 1-4 game. Sadly, I don't think the o-line is really, really good.
  16. RobHowe

    RobHowe Administrator

    I saw it on a few gambling websites, where they tend to pay close attention to those numbers. I’ll see if I can find them.
  17. AreWeThereYet

    AreWeThereYet Well-Known Member

    In a nutshell, they are saying 4-0 on the games Iowa should win, and an even split on the eight competitive games. Iowa up or down by more than a touchdown in the competitive games. 8-4

    I can buy that. I think you have Iowa solidly favored in 4 games, Michigan a fairly solid favorite, and seven toss ups.
  18. homes

    homes Well-Known Member

    Sign me up for that season.
  19. NikeHawk21

    NikeHawk21 Well-Known Member

    A couple additions here.

    -I can recall at least 3 special teams turnovers last year. Those seem pretty random.

    -A solid pass rush is key to generating turnovers. Obviously forcing fumbles but making a QB throw off timing often leads to interceptions. I think Iowa will continue to generate a solid pass rush and turnovers.

    -As far as limiting turnovers I saw a stat that Nate Stanley was like top 5 in the B1G in least interception worthy throws. Some of his picks that I recall from last year were boneheaded decisions, not bad throws. If he can eliminate those I think his interception number should be fairly low, and if Wirfs and Jackson keep the pressure off him that would in theory limit fumbles and INTs.

  20. CP87

    CP87 Well-Known Member

    They were 16th best in the nation in raw TO, and their fumble luck was pretty average, so they were probably 16th in adjusted TO margin as well. Maybe that is the #.

    I just don't see holding that # against them as if they got lucky. They have been 11th, 28th, 26th, and 16th in the last 4 years. I think they are more likely to end up in a similar range than to end up in the middle of the pack in the nation.
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