My take on late season collapses

Discussion in 'Basketball' started by PCHawk, Feb 28, 2016.

  1. PCHawk

    PCHawk Well-Known Member

    So everyone thinks late season collapses happen every year, but really they've only happened twice. This year and 2 years ago. They happen to be the only 2 times we've been ranked high. That's not a coincidence.

    During years where we haven't been great, we've finished strong. I think we've actually finished better than our talent would suggest. When we sucked and beat 6th ranked Purdue, it was because we were getting better as the year went on (we had a lot of room for improvement ) and Purdue was complacent and didn't take us seriously. That's human nature and it happens all over the country every year.

    In my opinion, Fran is actually a really good coach who gets his players to play as a team better than their talent level. That can be a problem when you have a top 25 team who he gets to play like a top 10 team early. As the year goes on, our team get complacent like every other team would. That's a problem because we aren't really as good as we are playing so we will fall even harder when we get complacent. A true top 5 team getting complacent can fall like Oklahoma has this year. If a top 25 team that's trapped in a top 5 team's ranking gets complacent, they fall like a ton of bricks. Especially late in the year when other teams are trying like hell every game to get their signature win.

    We simple aren't talented enough to try to ride our talent against teams going balls to the wall. Fran is kinda a victim of his own coaching. If he wouldn't have coached us up to wins earlier in the year that we weren't talented enough to get, these games late in the year would be a lot easier without the target on our backs. We would probably end up with the same record if we didn't win so much early. We would have just gotten there differently and less frustrating.

    Our record this year is going to end up about the same as it does every year under Fran, a little better than it should be based on talent. That's good news for the future after next year because the talent will be better.
  2. 99topdawg

    99topdawg Well-Known Member

    I couldn't have said it better. The Law of Averages will catch up to you eventually.
  3. skinnykilmer17

    skinnykilmer17 Well-Known Member

    Fran has major deficiencies as an in-game coach/game manager. Fact. Numbers in close games bear that out. It seems like Speraw can only do so much. Fran just seems/literally looks confused at times or is so irate that he isn't focused. How else do you explain his really poor record in close games?

    I don't see this improving. So until we get enough talent here to blow teams away consistently, I just don't see a B1G championship or serious run. Just my IMO.
  4. ibahawkeye

    ibahawkeye Well-Known Member

    I'm happy with Frans development of players in most cases and overall I'm satisfied with his recruiting. I think it's more of a Jimmy and Joe thing than Xs and Os and I hope With recent tourney appearances, national exposure as a top 10 team, and a couple really good incoming recruits (although a couple years out) it will make the program more attractive for better talent.

    Fran took guys like White, Marble, now Uthoff and giving them opportunities to play in the league so I'm hoping if we can improve recruiting, combined with Frans ability to develop will result in the program taking the next step.
    Last edited: Feb 29, 2016
  5. SpiderRico

    SpiderRico Well-Known Member

    Success in close games requires a player/players that can creat their own shot in crunch time or a skilled big man we can feed late in games or a player that's money from deep in crunch time. We've had only one of those (Gatens senior year from deep) in Fran's entire tenure. That's a recipe for a losing record in close games.
  6. PCHawk

    PCHawk Well-Known Member

    The senior class is more of a common denominator than Fran is because the problems started when they got here. The year before we were fine in close games.
  7. PCHawk

    PCHawk Well-Known Member

    But that's only on the offensive end. Defensive breakdowns, poor rebounding, missed free throws, and unforced turnovers are equally bad. And none of that is coaching.
  8. PCHawk

    PCHawk Well-Known Member

    Losing an abnormal amount of close games 2 years ago was due to laws of averages. Losing close games the last 2 years is because of complete lack of confidence from the players due to never recovering from all those close losses 2 years ago. It snowballed and they clearly can't recover from it. Next year that won't be an issue. Jok doesn't make mistakes at the end of games. He doesn't miss free throws. He actually makes shots.
  9. trj

    trj Well-Known Member

    Jok is fearless. That is something you have in your DNA or you don't.
  10. 1977Hawkeye

    1977Hawkeye Well-Known Member

    Maybe just two of Fran's six seasons have seen late season melt downs, but there's been a common theme of his teams being unable to finish games. Lead most of the game.. Tied or have the lead with 2-3 minutes left... And then crumble while the opponent makes plays. Loss.

    It happened a lot in 2012-13. I think it was that year, where Iowa went to the NIT finals. But there were several blown games that year - it really should have gone dancing.

    It happened a lot in 2013-14.

    2014-15 didn't seem so bad, but I still think the team record in close games left a lot to be desired.

    It's happened a lot this year.

    Early on, I chalked it up to a team not knowing how to win, lack of talent/depth, no culture of winning, etc. but now I am not so sure. Shouldn't we be past this particular mental block by now? Or maybe not, I don't know. I just know that if Fran's teams are good enough to compete, rise to #3 in the country, etc. etc. that you shouldn't lose the coin toss in close games nearly every time. I don't think the problem is bad luck, but I don't know what it is. The players just always seem to go into a shell those last few minutes.
  11. 1977Hawkeye

    1977Hawkeye Well-Known Member

    Losing close games was an issue 3 years ago, too. I wish I knew where the thread was regarding Fran in close games, but it wasn't just the 2013-14 season where this has been an issue. I wish that wasn't the case, but it's a pattern.

    STILLBUSTER Well-Known Member

    Those are performance / execution issues that are on the players. However, they're no worse than routinely not having your stars / starters on the floor for the entire last 4 minutes. They're no worse than the ridiculously impotent platoon rotations that are more rote than rational. They're no worse than failure to use a time out to stem the momentum swing, refocus and rest the players so they can perform and execute. They're no worse than failing to game plan a strategy that keeps your most productive players involved. They're no worse than going to a zone defense when the opponent is shooting great from 3. They're no worse than continuing to squander end of half / game possessions with the same play, involving the same player, that has not resulted in a made shot the entire season. Yeah, it's only the players', especially this group of seniors', fault.

    You're way too good to keep pushing this exclusive take, PC.
  13. 1977Hawkeye

    1977Hawkeye Well-Known Member

    So our coaching staff doesn't teach defense or rebounding?

    I find that interesting.
  14. PCHawk

    PCHawk Well-Known Member

    I agree with your post. But the truth is, all coaching decisions get second guessed when you lose, no matter what you do.
  15. PCHawk

    PCHawk Well-Known Member

    Yes he does. And our defense and rebounding is way better during the game than it is in the last couple minutes. That's players choking. You're right that close loses happened the year before tho. When the senior class was freshmen. These guys are ruined in the head. Remember Uthoff has made his share of late game shots. He doesn't have it near as bad because he didn't play that year.
  16. lightning1

    lightning1 Well-Known Member

    This doesn't make sense.

    STILLBUSTER Well-Known Member

    True, tho, I've questioned all of these things about his coaching -- in a, "won in spite of" sort of way, even when the Hawks win. I've seen them as problems since day one.

    I'd even argue that the players should actually be praised for having to overcome these inherent obstacles. That, in addition to overcoming the routine challenges of their athletic and skill limitations, they also have to overcome their coaches inability to always put them in the best position to succeed, and, often times, just the opposite.
  18. MelroseHawkins

    MelroseHawkins Well-Known Member

    F--- it all anyway!
  19. lightning1

    lightning1 Well-Known Member

    Defense/rebounding is about hustle, heart and toughness. Tough players do the dirty work. Tough players don't want to look at the stat sheet and see their defensive responsibility as the high scorer of the game. Tough players scrap from beginning to end. How many of our players would you guys consider "tough"?
  20. eveningnewsteam

    eveningnewsteam Well-Known Member

    They do, but there's a serious disconnect here. Either they don't put enough importance on it as they should or the players just won't listen. It's not a talent issue on defense, it's breakdown after breakdown. The problem with defense is it's something that has to be harped on constantly, drilled constantly to be effective, especially a zone. Maybe Iowa's staff is working on too many different defenses instead digging in at the fundamentals, principles, etc.... You need to have as the foundation of any defense you run. IDK