Please come off the ledge...

Discussion in 'Basketball' started by dirtwrap, Jan 25, 2019.

  1. dirtwrap

    dirtwrap Guest

    We have a really good team. We do so many things well and we are a mismatch for a lot of teams. We had a really good gameplan last night as well; pound the ball inside to Cook and Garza, get their front line in foul trouble and control the game. We did that really well for most of the game, however, they either didn't foul, we scored, or we missed really makeable shots. Tyler especially had a lot of good looks that just didn't go down.

    Where we lost is that we just don't have anyone on our team that can create their own shot and take control when things either start to go awry or its at the end of the shot clock. And they do with Winston. If he doesn't play well last night and doesn't hit those very timely threes, we could have gone up 15-20 and had the chance to blow them out.

    So relax, we got beat. MSU is not a good matchup for us, however, like every team in college basketball (including Duke who has both the #1 and #2 picks in the upcoming draft on their team and still lost twice (could you imagine if that was Iowa?)), has matchup deficiencies. Also, there aren't very many point guards out there like Winston. We are still a very good team, and with the right draw and the right matchup, we can do special things.
     
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  2. WindsorHawk

    WindsorHawk Well-Known Member

    As I posted elsewhere...no more Michigan State on the schedule. And half of our losses on the season are to Michigan State. No one else in our conference is at their level IMO. And we have zero road games against the top 4 teams in the conference. I'm so far from the ledge I didn't even know there was a ledge.
     
  3. 1977Hawkeye

    1977Hawkeye Well-Known Member

    Solid team for sure. Just can't have lapses that result in 24-2 runs. Need 40 minutes against top notch opponents to have even a chance.

    I'm not on the ledge.. Last night's game didn't really change the way I feel one way or the other. Just more reinforcement that Iowa is not even close to being at MSU's level. We got hammered by them twice. That's proof enough.

    This looks like maybe an NCAA Round of 32 team to me. Nothing wrong with that, but I was never under the delusion that this team is going to the Elite 8 or something.
     
  4. NikeHawk21

    NikeHawk21 Well-Known Member

    I get your logic, but that could completely change if Iowa loses to Minny on Sunday.

    The schedule is what it is but you can’t look past certain things. Our 5 game win streak included 2 road wins over bottom tier teams, and 3 home wins over middle to bottom tier teams.

    Now we have a different stretch of games. Can we beat a middle tier team like Minny or Indy on the road? Can we beat a top tier team like Michigan or Maryland at home?

    Lot of games left, and while I’m on not on any ledge persay right now I am just hoping Iowa can get to 10 wins in this league.
     
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  5. Hawknigh

    Hawknigh Well-Known Member

    I'm okay if a few select "fans" go off the ledge the bad way! Unfortunately, the worse the situation, the more they post.
     
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  6. 1977Hawkeye

    1977Hawkeye Well-Known Member

    That's exactly my hesitation with picking the remaining games. I can't just simply pencil any of these types of games in as W's, because Iowa hasn't done it yet. I'm still in "show me" mode. Yeah, I think they can get a couple of them for sure but beating a winless PSU team in Bryce Jordan is one thing. Winning a game at Kohl, Williams Arena, etc. is going to be a stiffer challenge.
     
    Last edited: Jan 25, 2019
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  7. WindsorHawk

    WindsorHawk Well-Known Member

    @MN (terrible from 3 and the line which plays right into our strengths)

    @IN (lost 5 in a row...likely 6 a few hours from now and lost at home by 15 to NE and by 7 at NW and only won by 8 at home against IL in their last win)

    @RUT (we won at NW and PSU without Cook...enough said)

    @OSU (lost 5 in a row including 3 home games and lost @ Rutgers)

    @WI (less than 50% chance of winning)

    @NE (less than 50% chance of winning)

    No Cook in either road win.
     
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  8. NikeHawk21

    NikeHawk21 Well-Known Member

    Indiana, Minnesota, OSU, UW, Neb are all tourney level teams, Iowa has not proven they can beat a tourney level team on the road.

    If Iowa wins Sunday I’ll feel pretty good about where we are at, if they lose, it completely changes the narrative you are selling.
     
  9. Motigerhawk

    Motigerhawk Well-Known Member

    Iowa is a damn good Mid Major team. Put us in Siennas conference and we win 30 games.

    I do like the team. But we are not elite athletes.

    If this team had a Ulis type PG, we would be an elite 8 team.
     
  10. PCHawk

    PCHawk Well-Known Member

    I gotta agree that beating or losing to Minnesota changes my win loss prediction by 2 or 3 games. We play probably 7 more "@Minnesota" type games.
     
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  11. PCHawk

    PCHawk Well-Known Member

    I agree that we are a top 32 level team. That means we need to get an upset to make the sweet 16 (or have an upset clear our path) and we need to avoid an upset to get to the second round. Both are equally possible. I'll take that right now.
     
    Last edited: Jan 25, 2019
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  12. NikeHawk21

    NikeHawk21 Well-Known Member

    It’s interesting because the glass half full aspect is of the 6 or 7 potential losses, not one of those games isn’t winnable. If they could pick off 2 or 3 of those and handle the other ones they’ll be in good shape.
     
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  13. PCHawk

    PCHawk Well-Known Member

    You gotta figure the floor right now is 8 wins which probably is one game short of the tourney. Our ceiling is probably 13 wins. It all depends on how we handle the 50/50 games. I truly believe we actually have a 55/45/ advantage in a lot of those games tho. I think right now, on paper, we are at worst tied for the 5th best team with an option to pass Purdue and Maryland. Also the option to get passed by about 5 teams.
     
  14. MelroseHawkins

    MelroseHawkins Well-Known Member

    Agree. In addition, maybe Iowa will get them in the BIG tourney and take them down. Who knows.
     
  15. InGoodCo

    InGoodCo Well-Known Member

    I bought B1G tourney tickets... TODAY. As in this morning after last nights game. No ledge for me. Iowa is a decent team this year. It's not elite, but after last year I wanted to see the exact improvements we are seeing to have restored faith that things are at least leveling back out.
     
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  16. WindsorHawk

    WindsorHawk Well-Known Member

    I'm not really trying to sell anything. This is just one guy's opinion. I think we are better than most of the teams in the conference. I think Michigan State stands alone as the top team. They've won 7 in a row without one of their top players.
     
  17. WindsorHawk

    WindsorHawk Well-Known Member

    Agree.

    Disagree. Worst case scenario is 2 teams passing us IMO.
     
  18. InGoodCo

    InGoodCo Well-Known Member

    The Big Ten currently has four teams in the KenPom Top 10: #3 Michigan State #6 Michigan #8 Purdue #10 Wisconsin


    ^^^^^ all 4 of Iowa's losses^^^^^ thus far. Iowa is still in great shape. They'll be in great shape if they lose to Minnesota. I assumed they were going to go 1-4 thru this stretch.
     
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  19. Xerxes

    Xerxes Well-Known Member

    No ledge for me. I'm actually enjoying the season. Its nice to see them winning games.

    Now its not against the best teams in the B1G but last year they were losing to those same teams.

    And also looks like they at least have an idea of how to play functional defense which is a huge step for this program that was playing pick-up games at Lifetime Fitness level D.
     
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  20. PCHawk

    PCHawk Well-Known Member

    It's not that hard to string together some losses to teams you were a 55/45 favorite in.
     
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