Sagarin has Iowa at #14

Discussion in 'Football' started by AreWeThereYet, Jan 3, 2020.

  1. AreWeThereYet

    AreWeThereYet Well-Known Member

    Sagarin has Iowa at #14. This includes Jan 2 games. I moves Iowa up one spot past Utah. ESPN's FPI numbers have Iowa at #15 and don't yet reflect the outcome of the Utah vs. Texas game. (Other drive based rankings such as S&P+, FEI and ESPN FPI haven't been updated for any of the bowls yet.)

    Rankings for the Big Ten according to Sagarin

    Code:
      1    Ohio State       105.12        13    1        EAST
      8    Wisconsin         92.24        10    4        WEST
      9    Penn State        91.97        11    2        EAST
     12    Michigan          89.94         9    4        EAST
     14    Iowa              86.77        10    3        WEST
     20    Minnesota         83.66        11    2        WEST
     34    Michigan State    77.3          7    6        EAST
     39    Indiana           75.9          8    5        EAST
     49    Nebraska          73.35         5    7        WEST
     69    Purdue            68.91         4    8        WEST
     72    Northwestern      68.04         3    9        WEST
     79    Illinois          66.3          6    7        WEST
     94    Maryland          62.58         3    9        EAST
    135    Rutgers           53.59         2   10        EAST
    
    Notes: Sagarin is based on wins, point totals (non-garbage time), strength of schedule, and home/away. (It is not drive or efficiency based rating) The raw number given after the team name is a predictor number used for calculating point spreads. Home advantage adds 2.68. The over all rank is a combination of three different tabulations, a predictor, a golden mean, and recent games.(weighted toward the last 5 games)

    Iowa's rank for recent games was #12. Their last five games were better than their season as a whole.
     
  2. AreWeThereYet

    AreWeThereYet Well-Known Member

    Illinois is a bit of an outlier this year. They were improved, but not as much as their 6-7 record would indicate. They rose to the occasion against Wisconsin and Michigan State, and got lucky with some timely turnovers. They did dump and early season game to Eastern Michigan though.
     
    ssckelley likes this.
  3. homes

    homes Well-Known Member

    Nebraska is still overrated. Somehow they've been able to deceive even the computers. :)
     
  4. NikeHawk21

    NikeHawk21 Well-Known Member

    I’m not surprised on that last comment about the last 5 games. I feel like Iowa’s offense with the addition of Goodson and LaPorta as the go to guys at their position was much improved the last few games, despite conservative play calling in 2Hs against Minny and Neb.

    I’m excited to see our offense next year with all the skill guys we have and another offseason of improvements.
     
    AreWeThereYet likes this.
  5. AreWeThereYet

    AreWeThereYet Well-Known Member

    I wasn't surprised that the improvement showed up in the numbers either. The interior offensive line also gradually improved in the last half of the season. Loosing Cole Banwart early in the season probably lost Iowa at least one game. Getting Kristian Welsh back at middle linebacker also helped.

    I think Iowa's bowl prep the last three years has been better than it was under Davis. I don't think the three consecutive bowl wins is a fluke. I also don't think Davis really could get the different parts of the offense to mesh with each other, and extra preparation may not have helped that.
     
  6. Seth53

    Seth53 Well-Known Member

    But but but they're by far the best 5-7 team in the land dontchaknow!
     
  7. AreWeThereYet

    AreWeThereYet Well-Known Member

    73.35 isn't a good rating on this. It would put them fourth from last in the Big 12 with Texas Tech and West Virginia being a half point and a point lower respectively.

    Kansas is worse. They'd have a ten point spread on Kansas.
     
  8. AreWeThereYet

    AreWeThereYet Well-Known Member

    Nope. They don't even get that honor.
     
  9. okeefe4prez

    okeefe4prez Well-Known Member

    I'll say it. Had Brian Ferentz not been given "run game coordinator" duties prior to the 2015 season, there is no way in hell that team reaches 12-0 in the regular season. If they shore up this o-line, Ferentz is going to be a really good O-coordinator.

    There's this big youth movement toward the NFL coaches and guys like Lincoln Riley get mentioned for NFL jobs. The reason most NCAA guys utterly flop when they go to the NFL is that they are used to playing with a decided athletic advantage and that is gone the minute they hit the NFL. In fact, most of them are in a major deficit position because they are replacing some coach who was fired in large part because the GM and ownership effed up the roster. If I were running an NFL organization, I would absolutely give Brian Ferentz a shot at an OC job, maybe even the head job if he had a few years as a HC somewhere. I bust his balls, but I think the kid can coach and the talent level on offense (other than the middle of the line) has gone way up under his tenure.

    Ferentz is behind the damned 8 ball on talent but he figures out how to get it done more often than not. I know that this is heresy given that we had legends like Norm Parker, Phil Parker and Ken O'Keefe on staff, but I think Brian might go down as the best coordinator in the Ferentz era when it's all said and done.
     
  10. AreWeThereYet

    AreWeThereYet Well-Known Member

    I'm not ready to declare Brian Ferentz the best offensive coordinator of the Ferentz era. I think the knock on BF is his inexperience as OC. There's a steep learning curve and you're going to lose some games because of that alone. I do think he is a smart fellow with potential. He's had some decent game plans when he has time, but other times he's a bit at a loss. Some of that is experience.

    As far as Greg Davis is concerned, I think he and Mack Brown had a symbiotic relationship working together all those years. The two of them where more than either one on his own. Davis and Ferentz were a bit of a mismatch. They ran totally different systems that did not compliment each other.
     
  11. SpiderRico

    SpiderRico Well-Known Member

    We played Michigan and Wisc both on the road and lost by a combined 9 points. I don't buy that, on a neutral field, we get beat by either of those teams.
     
  12. AreWeThereYet

    AreWeThereYet Well-Known Member

    I think I've found a conference for Nebraska

    Sagarine ratings for Big Ten & ACC sorted. This is illistrative of what has happened to the ACC recently. It has become a practice squad for Clemson. As long as Clemson doesn't screw things up, they could keep up their unchallenged dominance for quite a while. A few of these teams will bounce back, but it looks like most of them are trending in the wrong direction. Outside of Clemson there isn't a lot of difference between the ACC and AAC.

    This is also why Big Ten teams are getting lined up against SEC teams in bowl games.

    Code:
      1  Ohio State    105.12  13  1  BIG TEN-EAST
      2  Clemson       103.35  14  0    ACC-ATLANTIC
      8  Wisconsin      92.24  10  4  BIG TEN-WEST
      9  Penn State     91.97  11  2  BIG TEN-EAST
     12  Michigan       89.94   9  4  BIG TEN-EAST
     14  Iowa           86.77  10  3  BIG TEN-WEST
     20  Minnesota      83.66  11  2  BIG TEN-WEST
     32  Virginia       77.99   9  5    ACC-COASTAL
     34  Michigan State 77.3    7  6  BIG TEN-EAST
     39  Indiana        75.9    8  5  BIG TEN-EAST
     40  North Carolina 75.75   7  6    ACC-COASTAL
     44  Virginia Tech  74.32   8  5    ACC-COASTAL
     49  Nebraska       73.35   5  7  BIG TEN-WEST
     51  Louisville     73.07   8  5    ACC-ATLANTIC
     54  Florida State  72.72   6  7    ACC-ATLANTIC
     59  Wake Forest    70.98   8  5    ACC-ATLANTIC
     60  Pittsburgh     70.17   8  5    ACC-COASTAL
     61  Miami-Florida  70.02   6  7    ACC-COASTAL
     64  Boston College 69.52   6  7    ACC-ATLANTIC
     65  Syracuse       69.52   5  7    ACC-ATLANTIC
     69  Purdue         68.91   4  8  BIG TEN-WEST
     72  Northwestern   68.04   3  9  BIG TEN-WEST
     74  Duke           67.65   5  7    ACC-COASTAL
     79  Illinois       66.3    6  7  BIG TEN-WEST
     94  Maryland       62.58   3  9  BIG TEN-EAST
     98  NC State       61.51   4  8    ACC-ATLANTIC
    105  Georgia Tech   60.16   3  9    ACC-COASTAL
    135  Rutgers        53.59   2 10  BIG TEN-EAST
    
    Note: Try to see the forest not the trees on this sort of thing. These statistical models can't tell the difference between teams rated a few points apart, but they can illustrate general trends. There are also usually a few outliers in the data.
     
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2020
  13. MoseSchrute

    MoseSchrute Well-Known Member

    I wasn't sure if your post was serious or not until this sentence. Then it became crystal clear.
     
  14. BrianFerentzForPresident

    BrianFerentzForPresident Well-Known Member

    We talking senior prom?
     
  15. HawkGold

    HawkGold Well-Known Member

    Which coaching philosophy will show up next year?
     
  16. NikeHawk21

    NikeHawk21 Well-Known Member

    To be honest I still think you will get a little of both the aggressive and conservative. I do think our offense will improve their production next year even with a new QB.
     
    HawkGold likes this.
  17. AreWeThereYet

    AreWeThereYet Well-Known Member

    The same one, only different.
     
  18. BrianFerentzForPresident

    BrianFerentzForPresident Well-Known Member

    Groundhog Day!
     
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