SIAP...Iowa's win/loss chances for 2015

Discussion in 'Football' started by hawkfan2679, Jul 22, 2015.

  1. hawkfan2679

    hawkfan2679 Well-Known Member

    "Iowa's odds of a 2-0 football start — something that is viewed as critical for a productive 2015 season — is slightly better than 50/50, according to projections assembled at

    The chart of game-by-game win percentages was being shared and discussed among Hawkeye fans Tuesday.

    The website graded Iowa's chance at beating Illinois State in the Sept. 5 season opener at a generous 96.2 percent, followed by a 53.5 percent chance to win the following weekend at Iowa State. If both games are viewed as outcomes independent of one another, that computes to a 51.47-percent chance that the Hawkeyes start 2-0 — something that might rally fan interest to attend the Sept. 19, 7 p.m. home game against Pittsburgh.

    ESPN thinks the Pitt game will be Iowa's toughest hurdle in achieving an unbeaten nonconference schedule — something Kirk Ferentz has done three times (going 4-0 in 2003, 2006 and 2009) in his 16 seasons as the Hawkeyes' head coach.

    Iowa's chances to beat the Panthers are 40.1 percent — even though the Hawkeyes won at Pitt last season, 24-20, behind a rally from current starting quarterback C.J. Beathard. The Hawkeyes are given an 80.8 percent chance at beating North Texas, coached by former Hawkeye assistant and Iowa State head coach Dan McCarney, to close the nonconference season.

    Plugging all four ESPN numbers into a calculator, Iowa's chances at a 4-0 start are 16.68 percent — or about one in six. And that's accounting for ESPN's assessment that Iowa's game against Illinois State, the 2014 FCS runner-up with an experienced quarterback in Tre Roberson, will be a near-certain victory.

    Here are Iowa's game-by-game win probabilities, per ESPN, which by the way gives Iowa a 0.6 percent chance of winning a Big Ten Conference title:

    Sept. 5 — vs. Illinois State (.962)

    Sept. 12 — at Iowa State (.535)

    Sept. 19 — vs. Pittsburgh (.401)

    Sept. 26 — vs. North Texas (.808)

    Oct. 3 — at Wisconsin (.235)

    Oct. 10 — vs. Illinois (.558)

    Oct. 17 — at Northwestern (.419)

    Oct. 31 — vs. Maryland (.636)

    Nov. 7 — at Indiana (.473)

    Nov. 14 — vs. Minnesota (.498)

    Nov. 21 — vs. Purdue (.598)

    Nov. 27 — at Nebraska (.250)"

    So according to this research, we're favored in 6 of 12 and another 2 are almost statistical toss-ups (Minnesota/Indiana). I think this speaks to the national perception of uncertainty of what our offense can be with a new QB, the new starters on the OL, and if our defense can replace the losses on the DL. Especially when contrasted to what Iowa fans think about the schedule; that is that the schedule is VERY manageable and we should be looked upon favorably to win 10 of the games (or at least a toss-up in those games) and the only clear underdog games to play will be Wisconsin and Nebraska.
  2. Hawknick

    Hawknick Banned

    Those odds are absurdly low. They vastly underestimate Iowa. I think a lot of people thay have not watched this spring know how strong Iowa's defense is. Iowa teams with defenses this strong always contend for conference championships.
  3. ChosenChildren

    ChosenChildren Well-Known Member

    These seem about right to me.....really concerned about our OL
  4. NEIChawk

    NEIChawk Well-Known Member

    Which translates into a 6-6 record

    The median % equals .5165 x 12 games = 6.198 wins.....Ya, that's about right....;)
  5. 1977Hawkeye

    1977Hawkeye Well-Known Member

    Guess I'm surprised to see the odds of beating Illinois State as higher than beating North Texas.. It seemed like Illinois St. was supposed to be the better opponent. But, just as long as the Hawks win them both..
  6. GesterHawk

    GesterHawk Well-Known Member

    Well heck. Call it 6-6 and close the book. Why even play the season?
  7. hawkdrummer1

    hawkdrummer1 Well-Known Member

    I love these "chances of victory" projections with actual percentages attached to them. There are meaningless statistics...and then there are meaningless statistics.
  8. hawkdrummer1

    hawkdrummer1 Well-Known Member

    I agree. North Texas should be an easier win. It'll be game 4, and we all know Kirk's teams start out slow. And despite being BCS, North Texas is probably not a better team than FCS Illinois State.
  9. Eda

    Eda Well-Known Member

    I agree that NTexas seems like a far less difficult game than IllSt. In fact, I'm thinking that the Pitt and IllSt games are going to be our toughest outings of the non-con (I know, I know... @ Iowa State/SuperBowl/KirFer doesn't care about that game/etc). The timing of the IllSt game (first game of the year), the talent they have returning, the offensive scheme they run; makes it seem to me that they will be a BIG challenge.

    I also enjoyed the point the OP made about Iowa fans perspective of the "ease" of this schedule, compared to national perception.