Wow. Fran must be feeling some heat for missing out on DJ

Discussion in 'Basketball' started by lightning1, Jul 31, 2018.

  1. PCHawk

    PCHawk Well-Known Member

    That's because at the schools you mentioned, you have to be a terrible coach to not win 9 games a year. At Iowa you have to be an extraordinary coach to win 9 games average.

    And I'm not saying Fran's resume doesn't deserve firing at this point. What I said was what year do you fire him? Idiots like Lightning would fire him after making the NCAA 3 straight years when we hadn't made one in a decade. When would you have fired him? After the first year where we were terrible with Kirk's guys? After the 2nd year where we improved a ton? After the 3rd year where we improved even more and made a good run in the NIT? After the 4th year when we made the tourney for the first time in a long time? After the 5th year where we made it 2 years in a row? After the 6th year where we made it 3 years in a row? After the 7th year where we were first 4 out and showing a ton of promise with a young team? Or after the 8th year where we tanked?
    InGoodCo, Ree4 and NikeHawk21 like this.
  2. NikeHawk21

    NikeHawk21 Well-Known Member

    Ahh the classic hindsight is 20/20 analysis.

    Nova, who beat us in that tournament won the Championship, they also clubbed Miami in that tournament, then walloped Oklahoma in the final 4 by 44... that’s right 44 points!

    At that time we also had Tyler Cook signed which is the biggest recruit we’ve signed. Joe Weiskamp was already committed, not to mention the two McCaffery boys, who you yourself were very high on were locks to come to Iowa.

    Yes, since then it has not gone well and it may soon be time to move on from Fran. But to act like you were out there calling for him to be fired at that time I have a hard time believing unless you have proof.
    Ree4 likes this.
  3. SpecialKHawk

    SpecialKHawk Well-Known Member

    I’m betting against fools that think changing coaches alone will solve the problem when the problems run much deeper than the coach. That’s the point. You want real change then you’d better focus on the underlying issues. The data backs me up and that’s 4 different coaches over almost 30 years and 1 sweet 16. That’s systemic not coach alone.

    I’ve outlined 3 things earlier that must be done besides the coach and if we can’t or won’t do them forget about it... we are just about care-taking with a rinse and repeat strategy.
  4. lightning1

    lightning1 Well-Known Member

    It's not hindsight. I answered the question based on the results of the 2015-16 season, in conjunction with the fact that we had 4 SR starters and a JR starter on the roster. Maybe you needed a couple of years to digest the fact that the following seasons were going to be steps back but I didn't. I knew that roster was the mountain top for Fran. I wanted to move on from Fran at that time because he allowed that team to collapse and had no answer for how to stop the slide. None. That's what a multi-million dollar head coach is paid for. He better have some answers.
  5. lightning1

    lightning1 Well-Known Member

    The data only backs up that there were 4 poor coaching hires. You have to have the right AD and a University that is committed to winning. That goes without saying. We don't have that at Iowa. "A new arena and better fans" is the dumbest argument I've heard all year. And there are still almost 5 months left.
  6. NikeHawk21

    NikeHawk21 Well-Known Member

    You do know this site has a search function? I already have a post from you following that season that says nothing about firing Fran.
  7. lightning1

    lightning1 Well-Known Member

    Dig them out.
  8. SteveGarvey1

    SteveGarvey1 Well-Known Member

    Yep, Bain said he was between 240-260 so I guess he's the one who's full of it or perhaps I'm just too naive. But I'm just the messenger so don't slay the messenger, since that rating or the fact that he's not yet ranked means he must suck to you.

    Judging by what I've read and seen from videos, his shot looks better than Carton's though I'm sure the rest of his game must lack behind DJ's if DJ is rated about 25-30 and BG is 240-260, according to Bain.

    Really, I'm not sure there's much difference between a guy rated 140 and 240 when you get down to it but if BG were rated 140, people would be thrilled here, if he ended up coming to Iowa.

    In the end, Fran just isn't going to get some 5 star PG to come to Iowa so is doing the best he can to try and develop some three star kid into someone who can help Iowa basketball.
  9. lightning1

    lightning1 Well-Known Member

    The rating system is not the be all, end all. That's for sure. I don't put much stock in it, personally. I like to see them play more than I saw from his videos. There's nothing out there to indicate Greenlee is even a 3 * prospect. That could change but the last I looked, he had no rating available.
  10. Tierney

    Tierney Well-Known Member

    These are young guys whose games can change a great deal in a year. By the time, if they come to Iowa, they get to Iowa they could of improved significantly. Some of these guys are a year younger or a year older than the class. I think I read somewhere where the mccaffery boys are a year older for their class. The guys they have offered scholarships to seem to posses excellent athletic ability which is pretty positive.
  11. BryceC

    BryceC Well-Known Member

    It's not the end all be all. But if you have a 200+ ranked player do much of anything it's rare.
  12. Tierney

    Tierney Well-Known Member

    It is probably rare that they make the NBA, but I'm sure it has happened before. There are a lot of guys in the 200 rankings that can positively impact their team. UNI has had some pretty good team without a super high ranked guy on their squad. A great deal depends on the player and who his coach is.
  13. lightning1

    lightning1 Well-Known Member

  14. lightning1

    lightning1 Well-Known Member

    It all depends on what style you want to play and what your expectations are. Fran's style of play and recruiting ability = 2nd round ceiling every few years. I think his body of work supports that.
    Some people are perfectly fine with that.
  15. SteveGarvey1

    SteveGarvey1 Well-Known Member

    Well since a P-5 school just offered him, I'd sure he'll be a 3 star guy soon. And if he really is 240-260 then he'd be on the cusp of that rating. I'm not even sure what the threshold is for being rated as a 3*.

    I noticed that in 2015, Wieskamp was rated as the 16th overall 2018 recruit. In 2016, he fell to like 30th. Now he's about 80. All he's done since 2015 is tear up Iowa HS basketball, set records and kick ass. Yet, his rating has dropped about 64 spots. Is it because 64 guys suddenly emerged who are now better than him or is so much of it based on superficial crap, which teams and how many have offered, the race of the player, momentum etc. instead of actual evaluation?

    That's why I think the difference between 240 and 140 is so miniscule with probably little predictability as to how well a recruit will work out. The top 50-60 rated recruits will probably work out but after that, it's more of a crap shoot. After 140 it's really throwing darts at a dart board.
  16. lightning1

    lightning1 Well-Known Member

    It's hard to say how they apply their ratings. Some head coaches are just not very good at evaluating talent. They still get hired to coach high profile basketball programs. It doesn't always have to make sense. I know some kids that don't get many D-1 offers that absolutely should.
  17. BigD

    BigD Well-Known Member

    Ok I can see where you are coming from and why it would be difficult to see the train a coming. I could sense it back in 2015. I was mostly looking at his style of play (defensive weakness) and that we were peeing down our legs in the B1G tourney every year. If your not the team that can win the conference once in a while then you need to be competitive in the conference and NCAA tournament so the fans can enjoy the program. To answer your question I personally wanted to pull the plug at the end of 2016 considering the poor showing in conference and the previous things I mentioned.

    I would not be surprised, if Iowa can avoid injuries, to see Iowa bounce back this season. The foundation and experience is there. Most fans looked ahead two years ago and saw that this would be a very strong group of players if Cook was still around. I certainly hope so. If it’s another terrible year I can’t see Fran being around for another year contract buyout be damned. It could be a package deal where Barta is given the boot also.

    I am hoping for the best.
  18. BryceC

    BryceC Well-Known Member

    True, but again, the odds are against it.

    I think of recruiting rankings like this, every player can be good, and every player can be a bust. The odds of a highly ranked player being a bust are just lower than a low ranked player. Same as the odds of a low ranked player being good might be low, it still happens.

    I'll go back to 2015, because 2016 and 2017 still have some years to change what has happened.

    2015 had 4 high school prospects, all of them 200+. Basically all are gone now but Moss, who is an okay player. Not a lot of great ways to rank players, but PER is one that attempts to bring together their total effect on the game - he was 71st in the Big 10 in that stat last year.

    2014 had 2 200+ high school prospects - 0fer.

    2013 had 1 200+ high school prospect - Jok, who really was underated by that point but still that's a definite plus.

    2012 had 3 200+ high school prospect, only Clemmons did anything, and he never averaged more than 5 PPG until his senior year.

    2011 had 1 200+ prospect, Olaseni, who was okay.

    2010 had 2 200+ prospects, Marble and McCabe. Marble obviously a huge plus, McCabe was okay.

    2009 had 3 200+ prospects, only Eric May did anything.

    Basically if you look at it this way, there have been 16 200+ ranked high school prospects recruited in the Fan era from 2009 to 2015, that have resulted in two great players, Jok and Marble, and 4 okay players (at best, no offense), and 10 total flame outs. If I had to guess, you have at least 1 more great player in JBo, and I think it's unfair to judge anybody from 2016 and beyond until their careers are over. Plus I think Jok was underrated due to injury. I would asterisk him but that's just my opinion.

    Regardless, the hit rate for 200+ prospects is extremely low.
  19. SidFarkas

    SidFarkas Well-Known Member

    Get Joe Toussaint. He has a highlight from Rucker Park. No scrubs play in Harlem. Kid is nails.

    Also, Nevada, Loyola, UMBC, Rhode Island, St Bonaventure etc - all say thank you thank you to the 200+ scrubs out there. Such a myopic view from the cornfields. SMH.
  20. tksirius

    tksirius HN's Love Doctor

    I love how everybody wants Fran to get a pg that is pretty much the same height/weight/athleticism that Locure is. Funny how things change.
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