Iowa Football Preview, Prediction: Battle for Floyd in Primetime

IOWA CITY, Iowa – P.J. Fleck is in his fourth season with Minnesota Football. The charismatic coach owns victories against all Big Ten West Division opponents save one – Iowa.

You can bet that eats at him despite winning the conference coach of the year honors in 2019. The Hawkeye-Golden Gopher rivalry is important. The Floyd of Rosedale Trophy is on the line. Iowa is the winner of five in a row and 15 of the last 19 meetings in the series.

“There are a lot of our players that don’t know much about Floyd of Rosedale. We’re going to talk about the tradition and the history of it. That will be the message throughout the week, about trying to find a way to bring the bronze pig back here, which it hasn’t been in awhile,” Fleck said.

The rivalry will be renewed Friday night in primetime (6 p.m. CT, FS1) at TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. Both teams sit at 1-2 after capturing their first wins a week ago. Neither program can afford a loss if it hopes to remain in the West Division hunt.

“Being able to play for Floyd of Rosedale is something we’re blessed to be able to do,” said Gopher quarterback Tanner Morgan, a Kentucky native. “I think at the end of the day it comes down to going 1-0 in this Iowa season, not really worrying about what happened last year. At the end of the day it’s about us and playing up to our standard.”

Morgan and Minnesota came to Iowa City last November at 9-0 and ranked No. 7 in the country. They left town with a 23-19 loss.

“Growing up in Minnesota, everyone hears about the rivalry with Iowa and other rivalries we have trophy games with,” Gopher defensive lineman Boye Mafe said. “It means a lot to Minnesota kids but it means a lot to kids that aren’t from Minnesota.”

The feeling is the same in Iowa City.

“This is a trophy game. This is a very competitive game. We’re going up to Minnesota to play the Minnesota Gophers,” Hawkeye offensive lineman Mark Kallenberger said. “They’re going to bring it to us. I know they want that trophy back. We just have to do our job to be prepared for the game. It’s going to be a fistfight. We’re not saying this trophy doesn’t mean much because it does.”

Michigan handled the Gophers pretty easily in Week 1. They then dropped a 45-44 overtime decision at Maryland, a game in which they led 38-21 in the third quarter. They bounced back with a 41-14 victory at winless Illinois last Saturday.

Minnesota’s 36.3 points per game ranks fourth in the Big Ten and the 439.3 yards a content are second to Ohio State. They boast an all-Big Ten quarterback in Morgan and the reigning league receiver of the year in Rashod Batemen. Running back Ibrahim Mohamed paces the country with 190.3 yards per game on the ground.

“They’re a very veteran team offensively and very explosive team offensively, and they’re good at every position, big and physical up front, including their tight ends. Their quarterback has just done a great job the last couple years. He’s just an outstanding performer and just an impressive player,” Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz said.

“They’re strong at running back and their running back was the Big Ten player offensive Player of the Week this past week, so that doesn’t come as a surprise and they have got an outstanding group of receivers and Number 0 is as good as we’ll see, maybe as good as anybody in the country. So they’re very, very talented offensively, very experienced.”

The Gopher defense was hit hard by graduation and early departures. It’s suffered from them.

The 481.0 yards per game its yielding are the the most in the conference and would rank 115th nationally if it played enough contests to qualify. It allows 36.0 points an outing, which puts it ninth in the Big Ten.

Ferentz sees a unit that worked out some kinks last week against Illinois.

“They know who they are. They have got an identity in all three phases; a very clear identity, in my opinion, and I really respect that. And then most importantly their players buy into that identity and they play hard and they play hard within the system. So they’re sure like a lot like us,” he said.

Iowa secured a much-needed, 49-7 win against visiting Michigan State last week after dropping its first two games to Purdue and Northwestern by a combined five points. The Hawkeyes performed well in all three phases and found the complementary football it craves.

“It was great to win and the way we won was fantastic, but the biggest thing, we needed to play well. We needed to play well for sixty minutes and it wasn’t perfect. We had some flaws, but at least we acted like a football team for sixty straight minutes start to finish,” Ferentz said.

TV ANNOUNCERS: Aaron Goldsmith and Brady Quinn on FS1.

SERIES: Saturday will be the 114th meeting between Iowa and Minnesota. The Hawkeyes have won five straight, and 15 of the last 19.

Minnesota holds a 62-49-2 advantage in a series that began with a 42-4 Gopher victory in 1891. The Golden Gophers won the first 12 games in the series before Iowa earned a 6-0 win in 1918. The Hawkeyes are 31-26-1 against Minnesota in games played in Minneapolis.

BETTING LINES: Iowa opened as a 3.5-point favorite at VegasInsiders.com. It remained there as of Tuesday morning at the Elite Sportsbook in Riverside. The total was at 58.

TRENDS

-Hawkeyes are 17-6 Against The Spread in their last 23 games as a road favorite.

-Under is 9-3 in Hawkeyes last 12 conference games.

-Golden Gophers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.

-Over is 4-0 in Golden Gophers last 4 home games.

MINNESOTA PLAYERS TO WATCH

-Tanner Morgan, QB – Morgan has thrown a touchdown pass in a school-record 17 straight games (last game without a passing touchdown was Minnesota’s 2018 victory at Wisconsin) and the Gophers are 13-4 in those games. Morgan was named All-Big Ten Second Team last year after setting Minnesota single-season records for passing yards (3,253), passing touchdowns (30), completion percentage (66.0%), passing yards per game (250.2), touchdown-interception ratio (4.28) and pass efficiency rating (178.7).

-Rashod Bateman, WR – Bateman has played in 29 games for Minnesota and has 135 career catches (7th in school history) for 2,225 yards (seventh in school history) and 18 touchdowns (fifth in school history). Bateman was named Third-Team All-American last season, All-Big Ten First Team and was the Big Ten Receiver of the Year as a sophomore. The Georgia native, who was also one of 12 semifinalists for the Biletnikoff Award in 2019, caught 60 passes for 1,219 yards (second most in a single season) and 11 touchdowns (tied for second most in a single season) last year.

-Mohamed Ibrahim, RB – Ibrahim leads the nation in rushing yards per game with an average of 190.3. He ranks 24th in the nation in rushing yards (571) despite playing in only three games. Ibrahim ranks tied for fifth nationally in rushing touchdowns (10) and everyone ahead of him or tied with him has played in at least six games. Ibrahim ranks 12th on Minnesota’s career rushing list with 2,335 yards despite playing in only 24 games.

KEYS TO VICTORY

Minnesota: The Golden Gophers made some strides defensively against Illinois but they still are leaky. They need to come up with some key stops against Iowa’s potent offense.

Iowa: The Hawkeyes have yielded big pass yards against some top receivers and they get another one in Bateman. They need to pressure Morgan and be sturdy in the back end.

GAME NOTES

– Minnesota is 14-4 in its last 18 games. It was one of only three Big Ten teams to win at least 11 games last season.

– Minnesota is 20-3 all-time under Fleck when it scores first. It is 15-4 under Fleck when it has a
100-yard rusher. However, it is 1-2 this year.

-Minnesota tight ends were not heavily featured in the passing game last season, but have caught
touchdowns in two of Minnesota’s four most recent games. Bryce Witham caught a 1-yard touchdown
from Seth Green in the Outback Bowl and Ko Kieft scored Minnesota’s first touchdown of the season this
year. The 14-yard pass from Tanner Morgan was the first touchdown of Kieft’s career (38 games).

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-Morgan is 16-6 as a starter and he ranks fourth in school history in touchdown passes (42), seventh in passing yards (5,256), eighth in completions (344) and 11th in passing attempts (543).

-Preston Jelen (5-10, 210) has turned into a special teams standout. He blocked a punt against Michigan
and Minnesota scored two plays later (Morgan 14 yards to Kieft). The blocked punt was the first for the
Gophers since Justus Harris did so against Indiana in 2018 (U scored a TD three plays later). Jelen also notched three tackles on special teams at Maryland.

-Iowa DT Daviyon Nixon leads the Big Ten with 6.0 tackles for loss. He averages 2.0 tackles for loss per game, tied for seventh in the country. Nixon leads an Iowa defense that ranks No. 1 in the conference in rush defense (102.0) and No. 3 in scoring defense (17.3). He has 21 tackles, more than any other Big Ten defensive linemen and No. 3 on the team.

-Iowa has 59 INTs since 2017, Ɵ ed for the most in the country over the last three-plus years (Appalachian State). The Hawkeyes have at least one INT in 10 straight games. They have 14 total INTs during that stretch. DB Riley Moss returned his intercepted on 54 yards Week 3 against MSU to extend the Hawkeyes’ streak of consecutive seasons with a pick-six to 13.

-Iowa RB Tyler Goodson has started the last seven games at running back and has seven rushing
touchdowns during that stretch. Goodson leads Iowa in rushing attempts (43) and rushing yards (233). In Iowa’s 23-19 win against No. 7 Minnesota in 2019, Goodson became the first true freshman to start at running back under Ferentz since 2012 (Greg Garmon).

-Iowa TE Sam LaPorta leads Iowa in receptions (13) and receiving yards (128). Only twice since 1992 has a tight end led Iowa in season receiving yards. Alan Cross in 1992 (55-640) and T.J. Hockenson in 2018 (49-760).

-Iowa QB Spencer Petras has 116 pass attempts through three weeks, the second most by any Big Ten quarterback. He entered the season with 11 career pass attempts. The Hawkeyes are averaging 29.7 points per game, their highest total since 2002 (36.5).

NOTABLE ALUMNI

Minnesota – Michele Norris

Iowa – John Bucksbaum

HOWE I SEE IT: Like most of the games on Iowa’s schedule this season, this one looks like a coin flip on paper. A blowout victory for either side seems unlikely.

Both offenses feature a lot of playmakers with potential to deliver big plays. It would be surprising not to see some of them Friday night.

Turnovers, special teams and penalties can be counted on to play significant roles in this matchup as they often do when teams are even. Keep a close eye on how things fall in those areas.

This one will come down to who plays more soundly on defense, however. I think the Hawkeyes are better on that side of the ball this season.

PREDICTION: IOWA 31, Minnesota 27

HawkeyeNation.com’s Rob Howe has covered Iowa Hawkeye sports for 24 years and began working at HawkeyeNation.com in 2003. Please follow @RobHoweHN and @HawkeyeNationHQ on Twitter.