Iowa Football Preview, Prediction: Purdue Up First for Hawkeyes

IOWA CITY, Iowa – Spencer Petras waited two years for his first college start. He didn’t expect these circumstances when his time arrived.

Iowa Football’s redshirt sophomore quarterback watched his predecessor, Nate Stanley, engineer the team in front of raucous enemy crowds. He looked forward to silencing fans on the road.

That won’t be the case on Saturday when the Hawkeyes open the 2020 season at Purdue (2:30 p.m. CT, BTN). Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, fans in the stands will be limited to players’ families.

Petras sees advantages and disadvantages for this year. On one hand, the communication with teammates during his first road start should be easier. On the other hand, success won’t silence a crowd that doesn’t exist.

“It will be nice because communication won’t be as difficult. That will certainly be nice. At the same time, it is kind of fun to go on the road and you almost feel like a gladiator coming into a hostile environment,” he said.

Petras, the Hawkeyes and the Boilermakers likely would willing to line up against each other in the parking lot after the emotional rollercoaster they experienced during the last several months. The Big Ten first shortened its season then postponed it to the spring before reversing course and starting this weekend.

These teams have produced interesting games against each other in recent years. Purdue coach Jeff Brohm, who will miss this contest after testing positive for the coronavirus, has found ways to pierce the normally stingy Hawkeye defense. Iowa hung on for a 26-20 win last season at Kinnick Stadium to end a two-game skid in the series.

Electric Boilermaker receiver Rondale Moore, who opted out when the season was postponed, comes back and will be playing Saturday after missing last year’s game with an injury. He teams up with David Bell to form one of the top duos in the conference.

Purdue is keeping its decision on a starting quarterback under wraps until game day, at least that’s the plan. Jack Plummer, Aidan O’Connell and Austin Burton are the candidates.`

Plummer started six games last season before an injury ended his season. O’Connell started three games after Plummer went down. Burton arrived this offseason as a graduate transfer from UCLA, where he started a game in ’19.

“Offensively they have a system in place,” Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz said. “They’ve been doing it for a long time and they’ve been extremely successful. They throw the ball as well as anybody that we’ll face, and they have two of the better receivers that we’ve probably ever gone against at any one time.”

Purdue’s offense usually finds a way to score and with the weapons it possesses this year, that shouldn’t change. Improvements must come on defense if it wants to improve on last fall’s 4-8 campaign. It’s coming off a season in which it allowed 30.6 points per game, the third most in the Big Ten.

“It’s interesting on the defensive side and special teams side they have two new coordinators there. Not only is it a first game, but we’re looking at film of players playing in different systems and what we’re going to see this week coming up,” Ferentz said.

“On the defensive side, Bobby Diaco, an Iowa grad, has done an outstanding job in his career coordinating defenses, and now he’s at Purdue. And then the special teams coordinator came from North Texas, and he’s had a very successful career, as well.”

While Petras is an unknown commodity, the pieces around him are talented and proven. The team’s Top 4 receivers, Top 3 running backs and Top 2 tight ends return from last season. Four starters are back on the offensive line along with Indiana grad transfer Coy Cronk, who started 40 games at Indiana.

Outside of quarterback, Iowa’s biggest question marks come on defense. The Hawkeyes are replacing three starters on the defensive line, two linebackers and two players in the secondary.

“We still have serious concerns about our conditioning level and have had through this entire time just because of the lack of consistency and getting the guys in early. For the most part I don’t think it was until last week where we really felt were at a level where we could practice as long and as hard as maybe we would like to,” Ferentz said.

“At least we were able to build up to that point, but all that being said, all along the way, the players worked hard, they had a great attitude, and they’re clearly excited about having a chance to play football, and we’re excited about having a chance to coach them again.”

TV ANNOUNCERS: Cory Provus, Anthony Herron, Coley Harvey on BTN.

SERIES: Purdue holds a 48-39-3 advantage in the series that began with a 16-0 Iowa win in 1910.

The Hawkeyes have won five of the last seven meetings, 10 of the last 14, and four of
their last five visits to Purdue. Iowa is 17-28-1 all-time in games played in West Lafayette.
Iowa and the Boilermakers battled to a 21-21 tie at West Lafayette in 1994. That game
marks the last tie game for Iowa before the college football tie-breaker system was put in
place.

BETTING LINES: Iowa opened as a 3.5-point favorite at VegasInsiders.com. It remained there as of Tuesday morning at the Elite Sportsbook in Riverside. The total was at 52.

TRENDS

-Hawkeyes are 17-5 Against The Spread in their last 22 games as a road favorite.

-Hawkeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Purdue.

-Road team in this series is 9-1 ATS in last 10 meetings.

-Boilermakers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog.

PURDUE PLAYERS TO WATCH

-Rondale Moore, WR/Returns – Following a fabulous freshman season in 2018 that saw him capture all-American honors, the Indiana native played just four games last fall due to injury. He still managed 29 receptions for 387 yards and two touchdowns in those contests. Moore is as dangerous as any offensive player in the Big Ten as evidenced by his 114 receptions for 1,258 yards and 12 touchdowns in his first year on campus. He’s also one of the country’s top return men.

-David Bell, WR – Iowa worked hard to gain a commitment from the Indianapolis native but he chose to stay close to home. The Boilermakers found out during his true freshman season of ’19 that securing his commitment was bigger than maybe even they realized. Even without Moore for most of the campaign, Bell claimed conference freshman of the year honors after tying for the Big Ten lead with 86 receptions for 1,035 yards and seven touchdowns. He burned Iowa with 13 receptions for a season-high 197 yards and a score.

-George Karlaftis, DE – The true sophomore isn’t a household name outside of the Big Ten and maybe even Purdue, but that will change this season. He’s not only one of the best players at his position in the league, he has the ability to be among the nation’s best. As a true freshman, he paced the team with 17.0 tackles for loss and tied for tops on the team with 7.5 sacks. He recorded four tackles with a sack at Iowa last October.

KEYS TO VICTORY

Purdue: The Boilermakers were hammered with injuries to key players last season. When they’re right, they demoralize teams with a big-play offense that stresses defenses down the field no matter the score. Iowa is replacing two of four starters in its secondary. Purdue will go for home runs. If it hits them, the upset is not far fetched.

Iowa: The Hawkeyes have been trying to find a consistent running game for several years now. If it showed up in West Lafayette Saturday, that would be good. They would benefit from controlling the clock and not exposing their defense to Purdue’s offensive playmakers too often. It also would allow first-year quarterback Spencer Petras to settle in.

GAME NOTES

-The Boilermakers are 90-37-4 in home-opening games. They have won 20 of their last 22 home
openers, including a 42-24 win over Vanderbilt last season and Jeff Brohm’s first victory as the
Boilermakers’ head coach, a 44-21 primetime victory over Ohio in 2017.

-Rondale Moore (2018) and David Bell’s (2019) back-to-back Thompson-Randle El Big Ten Freshman
of the Year honors are Purdue’s first since Brian Fox and Eric Hunter were feted in 1988 and 1989, respectively, and merely the fifth time in conference history for players from the same school to be recognized in consecutive years (also Michigan’s Steve Breaston and Mike Hart in 2003 and 2004,
Wisconsin’s Chris Borland and James White in 2009 and 2010, and Penn State’s Deion Barnes and
Christian Hackenberg in 2011 and 2012).

-The definition of sophomore in Greek is “Wise or Enlightened Fool”, but Purdue’s second-year class is anything but. As true or redshirt freshmen last year, the 2020 sophomore class includes 2019’s leading rusher (King Doerue, 130 carries for 451 yards) and receiver (David Bell, 86 receptions for 1,035). The sophomores also accounted for 56 percent of Purdue’s rushing touchdowns and 59 percent of the Boilermakers’ receiving scores from a year ago.

-Purdue kicker J.D. Dellinger enters his final season at Purdue third in school history in career field goal percentage and fifth in field goals made. Dellinger has connected on 33 of his 45 attempts as a Boilermaker (73.3 percent). As a junior last season, he was a career-best 13 of 16 on field goals, including a career-long 53-yarder against TCU. On kickoffs, Dellinger improved from seven touchbacks as a freshman to 40 last season.

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-The Boilermakers have averaged 413.9 yards of total offense and 27.2 points per game in 38 games
under Brohm’s leadership. Despite having to use four different quarterbacks (David Blough, Elijah
Sindelar, Jack Plummer and Aidan O’Connell), collectively Brohm’s three squads have passed for 3,000 yards each year, including 3,998 yards in 2018 alone.

-Iowa has won five of its last seven Big Ten openers. Iowa is opening the season against a conference opponent for the first time since 1980. The Hawkeyes opened that season with a 16-7 win against Indiana at Kinnick Stadium.

-Iowa returns its top seven pass catchers from 2019. The group combined for 216 receptions,
2,681 yards, and 15 touchdowns. Those numbers include 89 percent of last year’s total
receptions, 90 percent of last year’s receiving yards, and 94 percent of last year’s receiving
touchdowns.

-Hawkeye running back Tyler Goodson has rushed for a touchdown in four straight games, dating back to ’19. The last Hawkeye to rush for a touchdown in five straight games was Mark Weisman, who
went seven straight games with a rushing touchdown in ’14.

-The Hawkeyes had 12 interceptions in ’19, and have 53 interceptions since ’17, more than any other team over the last three years.

-Iowa is 97-32-2 (.748) in season-opening games, including a 18-3 mark under coach Kirk Ferentz. The Hawkeyes have won six straight season openers and are 18-1 since ’01.

NOTABLE ALUMNI

Purdue – Robert C. Baker

Iowa – Ellen Dolan

HOWE I SEE IT: Who the heck knows what we’re going to see? Iowa last played a game in December. The Boilermakers last lined up against an opponent in November.

It’s fair to say there will be some rust. Perhaps the team that plays the cleanest football will emerge victorious. That seems plausible. Predicting whom that will be is difficult.

The best we can do is analyze what’s on paper and what’s expected of those players on that paper. This matchup is intriguing from a stylistic standpoint – Iowa aims to limit big plays and the Boilermakers look to hit them.

Even in last year’s win, the Hawkeyes yielded too many chunks plays. That said, their defense has evolved and become more versatile.

Iowa is better built to deal with these type of offenses. That will be the difference.

PREDICTION: IOWA 27, Purdue 24

HawkeyeNation.com’s Rob Howe has covered Iowa Hawkeye sports for 24 years and began working at HawkeyeNation.com in 2003. Please follow @RobHoweHN and @HawkeyeNationHQ on Twitter.